Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Andrew Cuomo get between 25% and 30% of the vote in 2025 NYC mayoral election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9c8731d07d663d319cc419d329de815742f9b02c34a5c830411e7826937f16d7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $41,303
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,555
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,303 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x14a1…1149backed Yes | 17c | 4,551$771 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$770.9 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x036e…9276backed Yes | 18c | 4,164$736 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$735.82 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e9c…1115backed Yes | 2c | 2,311$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac8…77cdbacked Yes | 15c | 2,000$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.85 | 196 | 43.4%85 W · 111 L | +15.5wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3cfc…9beebacked Yes | 18c | 1,664$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 18c | 1,500$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277 | 315 | 34%107 W · 208 L | -11.6wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 13c | 1,132$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.96 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc42e…56b9backed Yes | 18c | 1,014$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Yes | 15c | 1,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 26 | 3.8%1 W · 25 L | -4.8wins | -0.19per pick | 22cpaid | -65%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x225b…422abacked Yes | 22c | 881$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.17 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -2.5wins | -0.15per pick | 26cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked Yes | 14c | 832$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.3 | 196 | 31.1%61 W · 135 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a5…9de7backed Yes | 9c | 737.19$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.98 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8d4…8cb4backed Yes | 20c | 488.79$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.59 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8964…ed67backed Yes | 18c | 482.16$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.87 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e0…0f73backed Yes | 9c | 443.01$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.46 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 6c | 399.41$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.9 | 81 | 14.8%12 W · 69 L | -6.6wins | -0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2456…acafbacked Yes | 14c | 359.43$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.69 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c53…185dbacked Yes | 13c | 311.85$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.54 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 17c | 282.53$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.39 | 495 | 11.5%57 W · 438 L | -17.6wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked Yes | 20c | 251.46$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.25 | 75 | 33.3%25 W · 50 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbae5…45e3backed Yes | 7c | 236.2$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.44 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +3.1wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x30a0…9b7dbacked Yes | 22c | 201.98$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.71 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -49%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed Yes | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 51 | 29.4%15 W · 36 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3b…1d77backed Yes | 21c | 200$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.5 | 54 | 33.3%18 W · 36 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfdaf…e2e0backed Yes | 12c | 150$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd94e…e127backed Yes | 20c | 145.31$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 10c | 126.73$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.67 | 45 | 33.3%15 W · 30 L | +7.5wins | +0.17per pick | 17cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b9…de6dbacked Yes | 21c | 106.79$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked No | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb8…d906backed No | 44c | 99.41$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.67 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 11c | 94.1$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 332 | 38.6%128 W · 204 L | -8.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -30%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa113…93f4backed Yes | 23c | 86.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes | 22c | 85.41$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.89 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | +54.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a1f…81e6backed Yes | 19c | 60$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed No | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 75c | 42.96$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.7 | 211 | 55.9%118 W · 93 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7678…e5f0backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +3.7wins | +0.28per pick | 49cpaid | +61%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7e50…e454backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Andrew Cuomo get between 25% and 30% of the vote in 2025 NYC mayoral election?this page
- Will Andrew Cuomo get between 15% and 20% of the vote in 2025 NYC mayoral election?No won
- Will Andrew Cuomo get between 20% and 25% of the vote in 2025 NYC mayoral election?No won
- Will Andrew Cuomo get between 30% and 35% of the vote in 2025 NYC mayoral election?No won
- Will Andrew Cuomo get less than 15% of the vote in 2025 NYC mayoral election?No won
- Will Andrew Cuomo get more than 35% of the vote in 2025 NYC mayoral election?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.