Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Andrew Cuomo get less than 15% of the vote in 2025 NYC mayoral election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x93665847f6c1aadf5100ed99e0343abb0edac6f6ed2c495860ec20661afdfbe7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $58,493
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $46,161
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $58,493 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x14a1…1149backed Yes | 2c | 16,639$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.42 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c8…38dabacked Yes | 0c | 6,200$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a5…9de7backed Yes | 0c | 5,675$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.68 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf6d…9c5cbacked Yes | 9c | 2,432$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.12 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 12cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 1,793$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.22 | 495 | 11.5%57 W · 438 L | -17.6wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes | 2c | 1,191$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.11 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | +54.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a19…8179backed Yes | 1c | 1,162$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.22 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x949a…721cbacked Yes | 4c | 1,126$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 7cpaid | +149.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbb4…36c3backed Yes | 5c | 1,084$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74cd…2319backed Yes | 2c | 979.5$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ef…b1babacked Yes | 5c | 678.45$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8964…ed67backed Yes | 5c | 650.02$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.25 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b7…ee3cbacked Yes | 8c | 339.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 77 | 31.2%24 W · 53 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed Yes | 8c | 339.19$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.14 | 40 | 62.5%25 W · 15 L | +7.2wins | +0.18per pick | 45cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 180 | 26.1%47 W · 133 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Andrew Cuomo get less than 15% of the vote in 2025 NYC mayoral election?this page
- Will Andrew Cuomo get between 15% and 20% of the vote in 2025 NYC mayoral election?No won
- Will Andrew Cuomo get between 20% and 25% of the vote in 2025 NYC mayoral election?No won
- Will Andrew Cuomo get between 25% and 30% of the vote in 2025 NYC mayoral election?No won
- Will Andrew Cuomo get between 30% and 35% of the vote in 2025 NYC mayoral election?No won
- Will Andrew Cuomo get more than 35% of the vote in 2025 NYC mayoral election?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.