Weather · resolved market
Will global temperature increase by between 1.20ºC and 1.24ºC in October 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc0a189eabf0b5a593a3ab8f6c561b62b55147409b1d03a36c69bb43d9bb0f2a3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $42,489
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $45,278
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,489 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1186…051bbacked Yes | 61c | 10,545$6,406 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,139.44 | 67 | 50.7%34 W · 33 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa113…93f4backed Yes | 36c | 7,220$2,622 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,598.75 | 189 | 31.2%59 W · 130 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca35…5b58backed No | 40c | 1,500$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | +103.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x036e…9276backed No | 70c | 783.47$548 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$548.43 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -25%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99f6…46eabacked Yes | 70c | 747.97$524 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.23 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe19f…deacbacked No | 56c | 397.94$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 72c | 360$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.4 | 64 | 40.6%26 W · 38 L | +5.6wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +56.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 9c | 333$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.38 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd45…c05ebacked Yes | 32c | 305.12$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.4 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73dc…8d32backed No | 74c | 300$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +82.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5567…aeedbacked No | 52c | 283.84$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.02 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f85…8693backed Yes | 20c | 250$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4041…6f52backed Yes | 18c | 230$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.5 | 63 | 23.8%15 W · 48 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +56.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 54c | 217.03$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.03 | 382 | 43.2%165 W · 217 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9099…8491backed No | 45c | 216.78$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.92 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 25c | 204.91$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.52 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc77…c035backed No | 58c | 200$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.24 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +109.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 56c | 195.61$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.41 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4da…2db1backed Yes | 45c | 182.5$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.55 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 44c | 148.84$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.23 | 437 | 13.3%58 W · 379 L | -78.8wins | -0.18per pick | 31cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 50c | 145.01$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.09 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 40c | 141.39$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.44 | 199 | 37.7%75 W · 124 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x210c…2edabacked No | 72c | 130$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.08 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa557…d95cbacked No | 62c | 125.29$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.09 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 28c | 111$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.2 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59c8…b623backed Yes | 34c | 103$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.5 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | +2.7wins | +0.10per pick | 17cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd344…389dbacked Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.5 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e2b…d586backed No | 62c | 80.65$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e46…24cdbacked No | 47c | 75.23$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f81…e93fbacked Yes | 70c | 64.22$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.27 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 74cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26fc…ef25backed No | 50c | 61.92$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x245c…2486backed No | 68c | 57.34$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.99 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.20per pick | 50cpaid | -58.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x23cb…658ebacked No | 73c | 51.77$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.82 | 96 | 53.1%51 W · 45 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 158 | 18.4%29 W · 129 L | -8.4wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b06…9076backed No | 37c | 49.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +27%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c15…03debacked Yes | 37c | 42.1$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.48 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 24cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd5e4…c71dbacked No | 58c | 40.55$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf718…c127backed No | 57c | 36.54$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35f5…578dbacked No | 58c | 35.9$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe16e…ec5bbacked No | 58c | 32.45$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e6a…2a8abacked No | 58c | 30.57$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 53c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.83 | 155 | 58.1%90 W · 65 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99cd…af79backed No | 58c | 28.22$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfafa…c12dbacked No | 73c | 22.88$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x00b2…a512backed No | 58c | 20.72$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x860e…c33abacked No | 74c | 20.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc877…05b4backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 115 | 40%46 W · 69 L | -5.5wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -14%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x608c…be6cbacked No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will global temperature increase by between 1.20ºC and 1.24ºC in October 2025?this page
- Will global temperature increase by between 1.10ºC and 1.14ºC in October 2025?No won
- Will global temperature increase by between 1.15ºC and 1.19ºC in October 2025?No won
- Will global temperature increase by between 1.25ºC and 1.29ºC in October 2025?No won
- Will global temperature increase by less than 1.10ºC in October 2025?No won
- Will global temperature increase by more than 1.29ºC in October 2025?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.