TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Israel strike on Yemen by September 30?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$137,290
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$133,939

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $137,290 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 135 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe964…4fe1backed No3c11,816$346 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$345.8610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked No8c8,972$762 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$761.8442818.7%80 W · 348 L+9.5wins+0.02per pick16cpaid-28.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb104…17b1backed No9c4,319$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400540%2 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.16per pick24cpaid+57.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdb40…3612backed Yes73c3,555$2,584 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$970.299827.6%27 W · 71 L-7.7wins-0.08per pick35cpaid-46%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xfd66…fb6dbacked No12c3,409$409 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$409.1117018.2%31 W · 139 L+5.8wins+0.03per pick15cpaid+77.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No1c3,168$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.31,5587.2%112 W · 1,446 L-35.1wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-42.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8bc2…7173backed No8c3,000$227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$226.72540%2 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.08per pick32cpaid-26.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdecf…923cbacked No10c2,829$296 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$295.78425%1 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick13cpaid-33.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No17c2,691$456 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$455.7640828.9%118 W · 290 L-29.5wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-36%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xace2…8fe6backed No16c2,380$388 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$388.2410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe6e…074ebacked No10c1,944$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186.642454.2%13 W · 11 L+9.4wins+0.39per pick15cpaid+308.2%equal weight71+0.19 edge/pick
0x6c87…fce0backed No18c1,758$318 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$317.831338.5%5 W · 8 L+1.4wins+0.11per pick28cpaid+36.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x993f…3ee3backed No17c1,732$292 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$292.463748.6%18 W · 19 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb9a4…996dbacked No14c1,645$238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$238.423633.3%12 W · 24 L-4.5wins-0.12per pick46cpaid-43.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x711c…8495backed Yes78c1,619$1,260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$359.228641.9%36 W · 50 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+19.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5c29…d822backed No8c1,495$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.4814724.5%36 W · 111 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-26.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No11c1,465$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.0967841.6%282 W · 396 L-20.5wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-16.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf058…955bbacked No7c1,282$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85250%0 W · 25 L-2.8wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x1025…9cd9backed No1c1,217$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.6550%0 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa7f4…a528backed No17c1,168$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.4710%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd0a3…f425backed No5c1,109$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5670%0 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xeb07…1c15backed No10c1,035$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcd5a…f7a4backed No13c1,001$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.076118%11 W · 50 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick20cpaid+0.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x90be…c800backed No4c1,000$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.515331.4%48 W · 105 L-7.4wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-33.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0fda…5b87backed Yes73c1,000$729 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$271.197940.5%32 W · 47 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-18.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa6b0…881dbacked No12c1,000$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1203511.4%4 W · 31 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick10cpaid-42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x55d8…0cf5backed No7c999.99$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick13cpaid-16.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3a57…f7ddbacked No12c979.56$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.27450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-27.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc19d…865ebacked No7c915.27$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.2717934.6%62 W · 117 L+5.5wins+0.03per pick32cpaid+1.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb8fe…ce76backed Yes75c856.9$639 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$217.917740.7%72 W · 105 L+13.9wins+0.08per pick33cpaid+36%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x486f…dc1fbacked No4c805.94$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.24742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-40.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x98ec…8fd6backed No11c784.33$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.2680%0 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6540…ccc5backed No10c750$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.52055%11 W · 9 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick49cpaid-1.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3830…8c68backed No15c741.54$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.81728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-56.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7255…67e0backed No20c698.7$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.74862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.18per pick44cpaid+11.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9eea…281dbacked No15c678.56$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.142240.9%9 W · 13 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick37cpaid-5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3df5…42eabacked No9c662.98$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60520%1 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick20cpaid-68.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f40…7598backed No5c651.45$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3030%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe161…7854backed No15c650$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.5333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-42.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7842…4d91backed No7c599.99$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$427635.5%27 W · 49 L+3.4wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+14.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdb39…e932backed No8c591.68$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$505217.3%9 W · 43 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick18cpaid-46.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x6a83…4c59backed Yes78c541.94$423 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.3642738.9%166 W · 261 L+30.7wins+0.07per pick32cpaid+8.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x59cd…716fbacked No20c538.61$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.725642.9%24 W · 32 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-20.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No9c509.37$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.5377636.9%286 W · 490 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-35.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaf44…3829backed No16c505.37$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$801650%8 W · 8 L+2.2wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0551…b427backed No5c483.97$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.2310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca44…6d4ebacked No17c466.95$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$814436.4%16 W · 28 L+0.2wins0.00per pick36cpaid-18.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8965…8e45backed No9c455.56$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4120%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc94b…fd9bbacked No10c429.22$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.872642.3%11 W · 15 L+3.9wins+0.15per pick27cpaid+29%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x4d0c…e082backed No4c429.03$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.141435.7%5 W · 9 L+2.0wins+0.14per pick22cpaid+17.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xcb48…61c9backed No29c420.95$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.320%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0e21…6e64backed No24c416.4$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ff3…d376backed No14c400$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.66333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick50cpaid-54.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x82e3…1fe4backed No8c375$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5cfd…ca1bbacked No29c344.83$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001752.9%9 W · 8 L-1.4wins-0.08per pick61cpaid+5.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdb98…8bfdbacked No30c333.33$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100425%1 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.31per pick56cpaid-68.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4344…f90dbacked Yes67c333$222 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11112138.8%47 W · 74 L+11.3wins+0.09per pick29cpaid+24.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf5df…b2e9backed Yes63c307.95$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.22933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-28.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4347…e0f8backed No8c300$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd7f1…73cdbacked No13c296.68$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.5756336.6%206 W · 357 L+44.4wins+0.08per pick29cpaid+37.7%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x30d1…4525backed No31c287$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.2710464.4%67 W · 37 L+11.6wins+0.11per pick53cpaid+12.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xe277…8e46backed No7c285.71$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2016440.2%66 W · 98 L+10.9wins+0.07per pick34cpaid+18.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xdc3d…498abacked No9c280$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.22326.1%6 W · 17 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa2c7…43eabacked No12c277.61$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.66633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.10per pick24cpaid-39.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7dd7…46bbbacked No11c263$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.93450%2 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick38cpaid-22.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3f4f…b4b3backed No10c259.15$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.7326616.5%44 W · 222 L-24.7wins-0.09per pick26cpaid-49.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xc1bb…6975backed No4c250$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-58.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a4f…c4f2backed No14c240.06$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.9911.1%1 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.12per pick23cpaid-68.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8de4…e44ebacked No29c237.93$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$691546.7%7 W · 8 L+0.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid+23.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2586…f4b1backed No17c227.86$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.255328.3%15 W · 38 L-4.1wins-0.08per pick36cpaid-13.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1c4c…8d85backed No9c222.22$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020239.1%79 W · 123 L+20.4wins+0.10per pick29cpaid+44.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xd340…f2f0backed No7c213.56$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x865d…16bdbacked Yes60c210$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$853737.8%14 W · 23 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-30.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x002d…2561backed Yes71c200$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$585933.9%20 W · 39 L-3.5wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-34.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes69c188$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.442120.9%88 W · 333 L-0.3wins0.00per pick21cpaid-39.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x472c…a000backed No27c185.22$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.012147.6%10 W · 11 L-1.4wins-0.07per pick54cpaid-25.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xea41…1c98backed No11c181.82$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2033337.5%125 W · 208 L+12.2wins+0.04per pick34cpaid-7.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xde60…28cabacked No11c177.45$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20520%1 W · 4 L-1.7wins-0.35per pick55cpaid-68.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x1c2c…2e31backed No11c175.95$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.69633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.15per pick18cpaid+43.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7b7e…44bfbacked No10c172.48$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.0920%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x36bc…ec72backed No29c172.41$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.9wins+0.18per pick37cpaid+40.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb3be…1015backed No29c172.41$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503923.1%9 W · 30 L-4.0wins-0.10per pick33cpaid-46.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x02b1…fb65backed No7c171.43$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122321.7%5 W · 18 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick19cpaid-32.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe1a3…32d4backed No9c170.18$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.3210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd49e…4808backed No10c163$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.31070%7 W · 3 L+2.1wins+0.21per pick49cpaid+28.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x29d2…6305backed No13c153.85$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-51.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xff30…2f90backed No19c151.84$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.476621.2%14 W · 52 L-7.7wins-0.12per pick33cpaid-53.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xb11d…5ddabacked No8c150$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8227…4b3cbacked No28c148.81$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.17per pick46cpaid-55.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb76f…7965backed Yes70c142.41$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.41580%4 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.23per pick57cpaid+69.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbdf7…65d9backed No18c140.09$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.412924.1%7 W · 22 L-4.8wins-0.16per pick41cpaid-64.3%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x588c…1bf4backed No32c125.95$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.37851.3%40 W · 38 L-3.5wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-18.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa577…b06abacked No8c125$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107561.3%46 W · 29 L+4.3wins+0.06per pick56cpaid+12.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdfaa…79a7backed No19c123.83$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.0731719.2%61 W · 256 L-23.1wins-0.07per pick27cpaid-41%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf00a…c77cbacked No14c113.2$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.854753.2%25 W · 22 L+3.4wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+4.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xdc75…b64dbacked No12c112$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.993754.1%20 W · 17 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x980a…8ccbbacked No21c104.25$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.761330.8%4 W · 9 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick38cpaid-51.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x205e…bf9bbacked No12c103.66$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x055e…de32backed No15c100.96$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152650%13 W · 13 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-20.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x347a…83e3backed No29c100$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$291631.3%5 W · 11 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-32.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.