Us Politics · resolved market
Elon Musk's security clearance revoked before August?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf4d0c4880049bebab3bb57ed730361ef8f605ef6029664ba032e27bf893e2ce4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $64,465
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $69,573
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $64,465 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed Yes | 5c | 3,667$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.14 | 39 | 23.1%9 W · 30 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x155c…1b09backed Yes | 6c | 3,242$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.11 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 2,080$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.92 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes | 4c | 1,986$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.98 | 83 | 31.3%26 W · 57 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb139…add0backed Yes | 6c | 1,667$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 16cpaid | +72.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 6c | 1,459$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.29 | 29 | 13.8%4 W · 25 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -75.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed Yes | 5c | 1,300$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.8 | 187 | 25.1%47 W · 140 L | +10.5wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e9c…cd75backed Yes | 1c | 1,300$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 114 | 28.1%32 W · 82 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf485…53ccbacked Yes | 10c | 1,138$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.94 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 26cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5348…e4ffbacked Yes | 3c | 1,035$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 5cpaid | +9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8b5…b789backed Yes | 2c | 1,024$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.27 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.13per pick | 25cpaid | +48.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x05e5…1ec9backed Yes | 17c | 1,019$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d09…0852backed Yes | 2c | 1,010$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff4…17d1backed Yes | 6c | 1,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 40 | 30%12 W · 28 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3418…a3f2backed Yes | 6c | 1,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +76.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xff00…c146backed Yes | 10c | 963.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 30cpaid | -80.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb50…798abacked Yes | 7c | 962.2$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9706…13b9backed Yes | 8c | 937$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.96 | 52 | 7.7%4 W · 48 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -81.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x359a…deacbacked Yes | 7c | 900.28$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a4d…5f9fbacked Yes | 6c | 746.65$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.05 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcec6…0b1abacked Yes | 7c | 721$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.49 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -36%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x912a…0f92backed Yes | 4c | 669.97$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.32 | 185 | 16.2%30 W · 155 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 8c | 610.21$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.01 | 556 | 18.5%103 W · 453 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabe9…09b5backed Yes | 2c | 529.55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 37 | 21.6%8 W · 29 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9613…7528backed Yes | 8c | 500$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf130…4470backed Yes | 4c | 424.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.5wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x612c…b6acbacked Yes | 5c | 420$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35b2…bd2cbacked Yes | 6c | 411$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.66 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 16cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 5c | 354$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.33 | 333 | 13.2%44 W · 289 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61ed…9091backed Yes | 6c | 333.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd397…45cdbacked Yes | 6c | 333.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d89…340cbacked Yes | 6c | 333.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96d5…2306backed Yes | 6c | 316.67$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f00…7e3cbacked Yes | 10c | 255.54$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3814…588dbacked Yes | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -2.8wins | -0.15per pick | 38cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb58…8729backed Yes | 6c | 250$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca80…316abacked Yes | 9c | 222.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fd…5ee9backed Yes | 12c | 209.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2d0…cf13backed Yes | 11c | 130.83$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea61…8f05backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.