Chess · resolved market
Speed Chess QF: Lazavik vs Niemann
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6d0e1380e80f7a65453ae9f58c33562f1da16339bfc93a58daf44b667c28b68c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Lazavikof Lazavik, Niemann
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Chessevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,847
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,649
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,847 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Chess is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Chess | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6d89…340cbacked Niemann | 12c | 962.51$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.85 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 29cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24a5…b3bbbacked Niemann | 9c | 934.5$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.27 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7aa5…6292backed Lazavik | 52c | 871.59$452 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$419.83 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -66.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7707…4fcbbacked Niemann | 13c | 596$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0ba…e7ebbacked Lazavik | 74c | 593.45$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.09 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | +6.2wins | +0.12per pick | 35cpaid | +113.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2544…f319backed Niemann | 68c | 584.31$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x705d…f3a9backed Lazavik | 32c | 518.48$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$352.14 | 123 | 13%16 W · 107 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -24%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd49…6602backed Lazavik | 44c | 454.4$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.4 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.28per pick | 32cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Lazavik | 39c | 300$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183 | 74 | 41.9%31 W · 43 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64ad…3050backed Niemann | 17c | 279.49$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.72 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87f4…49e7backed Niemann | 56c | 263.72$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.38 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.20per pick | 29cpaid | -73.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0b5e…f21dbacked Niemann | 48c | 260$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1dc7…302dbacked Lazavik | 45c | 258.21$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.28 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e54…c8ccbacked Niemann | 58c | 221$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.51 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 47cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x37b2…8681backed Lazavik | 50c | 215.71$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +98.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36bf…2864backed Lazavik | 37c | 210.75$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.75 | 116 | 31%36 W · 80 L | +7.6wins | +0.07per pick | 24cpaid | +8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9ca5…403fbacked Niemann | 68c | 210.68$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b73…dd78backed Niemann | 55c | 206$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6149…8a58backed Niemann | 59c | 200$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.5 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…d43fbacked Lazavik | 35c | 200$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -13%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd17c…b09cbacked Niemann | 59c | 185.93$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.02 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -40%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2fe3…9681backed Niemann | 33c | 168.06$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x542b…f11fbacked Niemann | 59c | 140$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Niemann | 62c | 130$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.6 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x29ad…e8c0backed Lazavik | 38c | 130$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.6 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7990…64b8backed Niemann | 65c | 125$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20fa…18febacked Niemann | 63c | 120$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06ec…f845backed Niemann | 65c | 116.23$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.55 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 8cpaid | +222.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b7a…4817backed Niemann | 65c | 111.54$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.96 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x420e…e3c9backed Niemann | 58c | 110.14$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.86 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +97.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8c…bb4abacked Niemann | 15c | 107.55$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.23 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -27%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c92…b9c9backed Niemann | 63c | 100$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4acb…87babacked Niemann | 63c | 100$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0425…9b90backed Niemann | 63c | 100$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3763…e8d2backed Niemann | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d4b…a250backed Niemann | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Niemann | 63c | 80$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fe1…f8fabacked Lazavik | 35c | 80$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6aba…9dfdbacked Niemann | 55c | 80$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cef…0925backed Niemann | 14c | 79.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked Niemann | 64c | 71$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.34 | 77 | 35.1%27 W · 50 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Niemann | 63c | 68$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.84 | 87 | 32.2%28 W · 59 L | -10.8wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5a4e…8ae5backed Lazavik | 43c | 55.09$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Lazavik | 47c | 49$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.83 | 34 | 14.7%5 W · 29 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdcab…e9b8backed Niemann | 49c | 46.17$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d70…8691backed Lazavik | 35c | 45$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe091…4212backed Niemann | 67c | 40$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…e711backed Lazavik | 33c | 40$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +203%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba74…3e0fbacked Lazavik | 42c | 40$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d0c…e082backed Lazavik | 74c | 38$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.95 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +59.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6d8…e6afbacked Niemann | 74c | 35$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.85 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a3…9263backed Niemann | 57c | 34.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 60cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47d4…132dbacked Lazavik | 75c | 32$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89b5…ab4cbacked Niemann | 68c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 52 | 23.1%12 W · 40 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa33…372ebacked Lazavik | 43c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +132.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd160…8a16backed Niemann | 56c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc81…cc74backed Niemann | 67c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Chess and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.