World Politics · resolved market
Will turnout be less than 36% in the 2025 Irish Presidential Election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x295cd0ffba29923f782248b871ce751cda3bb0d6363d9f61e856b09bbb3b466e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,397
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,452
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,397 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe085…5474backed Yes | 10c | 1,118$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.76 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | -2.4wins | -0.13per pick | 18cpaid | -83.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc813…44dabacked Yes | 10c | 805.71$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.83 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -16%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 14c | 590.95$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.62 | 482 | 24.7%119 W · 363 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d89…340cbacked Yes | 3c | 590.88$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.09 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc412…592dbacked Yes | 5c | 490.84$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.56 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | +4.1wins | +0.14per pick | 23cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 9c | 474.91$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.09 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9733…f034backed Yes | 7c | 400.84$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.46 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +3.0wins | +0.11per pick | 32cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b44…be1ebacked No | 69c | 352$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.4 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +3.9wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +18%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1970…398dbacked Yes | 13c | 307.15$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.4 | 62 | 35.5%22 W · 40 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74bc…c504backed Yes | 7c | 282.5$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.78 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac8…77cdbacked Yes | 9c | 278.59$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.54 | 302 | 33.8%102 W · 200 L | +19.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xec95…f4adbacked Yes | 18c | 276.74$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +52.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ac5…6a3dbacked Yes | 9c | 260$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.47 | 52 | 36.5%19 W · 33 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -23%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6f5…78e7backed Yes | 10c | 229.37$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf503…39e2backed Yes | 10c | 188.05$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.45 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…5916backed Yes | 31c | 153$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.43 | 107 | 41.1%44 W · 63 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb84e…346ebacked Yes | 8c | 150.73$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6938…7185backed Yes | 13c | 127.09$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb282…3254backed Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bcd…cbfbbacked No | 71c | 117.81$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.81 | 87 | 37.9%33 W · 54 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 367 | 42.5%156 W · 211 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb72c…653ebacked Yes | 12c | 99.17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 32 | 18.8%6 W · 26 L | -5.0wins | -0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 32c | 93.62$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd86…1f67backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b2…7c84backed Yes | 33c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 47 | 27.7%13 W · 34 L | -6.0wins | -0.13per pick | 40cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0db2…4e2fbacked Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0910…ce1cbacked Yes | 60c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef9b…d5f9backed No | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will turnout be less than 36% in the 2025 Irish Presidential Election?this page
- Will turnout be 56% or higher in the 2025 Irish Presidential Election?No won
- Will turnout be between 36% and 40% in the 2025 Irish Presidential Election?No won
- Will turnout be between 40% and 44% in the 2025 Irish Presidential Election?No won
- Will turnout be between 44% and 48% in the 2025 Irish Presidential Election?Yes won
- Will turnout be between 48% and 52% in the 2025 Irish Presidential Election?No won
- Will turnout be between 52% and 56% in the 2025 Irish Presidential Election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.