MLB · resolved market
Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x77735f8de95d759fbc4609bbf1bf8a7ab3cfe613a69830526c33ada616db525c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $160,727
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $177,680
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $160,727 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked Under | 45c | 121,504$54,079 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54,078.57 | 1,328 | 51.4%682 W · 646 L | +25.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cda…6e17backed Over | 56c | 22,832$12,786 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,046.21 | 94 | 62.8%59 W · 35 L | +11.0wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc58d…9373backed Over | 56c | 14,886$8,336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,549.66 | 173 | 51.4%89 W · 84 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88a2…d974backed Over | 55c | 14,798$8,139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,659.18 | 196 | 49.5%97 W · 99 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9af…6371backed Over | 55c | 14,335$7,884 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,450.55 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f09…4632backed Over | 56c | 12,811$7,116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,695.09 | 254 | 53.5%136 W · 118 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa21…1438backed Over | 55c | 12,642$7,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,642.02 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a2…372abacked Over | 55c | 11,740$6,457 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,283.16 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf800…f62dbacked Over | 55c | 6,055$3,330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,724.55 | 63 | 57.1%36 W · 27 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Over | 56c | 6,003$3,362 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,641.32 | 234 | 55.6%130 W · 104 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 56c | 6,000$3,360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,640 | 447 | 49.2%220 W · 227 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Under | 45c | 5,925$2,666 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,666.47 | 49 | 65.3%32 W · 17 L | +7.0wins | +0.14per pick | 51cpaid | +28%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xec92…98f5backed Over | 55c | 3,000$1,650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,350 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4728…6426backed Under | 46c | 2,645$1,217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,216.77 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8e…f023backed Over | 54c | 2,222$1,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,022.22 | 59 | 59.3%35 W · 24 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4dbe…af34backed Over | 54c | 2,119$1,144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$974.72 | 564 | 51.1%288 W · 276 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf341…d026backed Over | 56c | 1,786$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$785.71 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5f2…0234backed Over | 55c | 1,775$976 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$798.75 | 269 | 49.4%133 W · 136 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a32…6d7ebacked Under | 44c | 1,500$660 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$660 | 96 | 51%49 W · 47 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Under | 45c | 1,478$670 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$669.84 | 958 | 50%479 W · 479 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Over | 55c | 1,417$779 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$637.65 | 631 | 52.6%332 W · 299 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 45c | 1,153$516 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$516 | 731 | 49.4%361 W · 370 L | +23.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75b1…e2e8backed Over | 56c | 1,128$632 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$496.49 | 78 | 53.8%42 W · 36 L | +4.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb36…9545backed Under | 44c | 1,000$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440 | 106 | 46.2%49 W · 57 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Under | 45c | 958.02$431 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$431.11 | 115 | 44.3%51 W · 64 L | -6.5wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d03…369abacked Under | 44c | 600$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264 | 68 | 33.8%23 W · 45 L | -9.0wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2619…9f4ebacked Under | 44c | 600$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264 | 70 | 41.4%29 W · 41 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7eda…4bb7backed Under | 45c | 400$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -3.3wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Under | 45c | 300$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 667 | 51.9%346 W · 321 L | +30.0wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc42c…42a1backed Over | 54c | 296$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.04 | 243 | 50.2%122 W · 121 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Under | 45c | 225$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.25 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | +25.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…7017backed Under | 45c | 200$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 197 | 47.2%93 W · 104 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedae…584fbacked Under | 44c | 198.69$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.43 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3853…a3d3backed Over | 54c | 190$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.4 | 98 | 63.3%62 W · 36 L | +8.1wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfc23…8283backed Over | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.19 | 431 | 53.6%231 W · 200 L | +10.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Over | 56c | 169$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.36 | 519 | 53.2%276 W · 243 L | -24.2wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf6…513abacked Under | 44c | 150$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 94 | 50%47 W · 47 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1895…efd2backed Over | 56c | 149$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.56 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xacdf…0ec4backed Over | 72c | 140$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.2 | 194 | 52.6%102 W · 92 L | -10.9wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Over | 54c | 129.63$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.63 | 443 | 48.5%215 W · 228 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a03…47c1backed Over | 56c | 125$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 113 | 53.1%60 W · 53 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b86…0669backed Over | 53c | 116.71$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.85 | 75 | 48%36 W · 39 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bfd…3462backed Under | 45c | 114.82$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.86 | 104 | 51.9%54 W · 50 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd774…82cdbacked Under | 47c | 114.15$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.65 | 99 | 45.5%45 W · 54 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc02…958abacked Over | 54c | 109.99$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.1 | 59 | 35.6%21 W · 38 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -33%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfe…ed69backed Over | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 86 | 46.5%40 W · 46 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf02c…2cf8backed Over | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x808d…f5debacked Over | 54c | 92.6$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.6 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa920…4c9bbacked Over | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.59 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +49.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…4f2abacked Under | 46c | 86.96$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 493 | 48.3%238 W · 255 L | +15.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9719…47e3backed Over | 54c | 72$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd63e…0d52backed Over | 54c | 66.67$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.67 | 91 | 61.5%56 W · 35 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6894…59d8backed Over | 56c | 65.88$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.99 | 258 | 54.3%140 W · 118 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 53c | 60.64$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 1,355 | 49.8%675 W · 680 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x891b…eee1backed Over | 55c | 50.25$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.61 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2c…4ae8backed Over | 56c | 45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 240 | 51.7%124 W · 116 L | -10.8wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d89…340cbacked Over | 54c | 41.78$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 54cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Over | 54c | 35.03$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.11 | 115 | 51.3%59 W · 56 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0cf3…2b57backed Over | 54c | 31.48$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 63 | 41.3%26 W · 37 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5200…9677backed Over | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.76 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d4f…3d87backed Under | 46c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.73 | 84 | 56%47 W · 37 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4178…d93cbacked Over | 54c | 19.65$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees: O/U 7.5this page
- Blue Jays vs. YankeesYankees won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)New York Yankees won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.