MLB · resolved market
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb28cb5fd5573118df4c4991627fd861ebb45aa5ad90c2e34e66deb73780e0f9d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- New York Yankeesof New York Yankees, Toronto Blue Jays
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $41,718
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $43,160
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,718 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x88a2…d974backed New York Yankees | 43c | 12,019$5,111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,907.76 | 196 | 49.5%97 W · 99 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 57c | 8,000$4,560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,560 | 447 | 49.2%220 W · 227 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d5c…0182backed New York Yankees | 43c | 7,369$3,168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,200.1 | 208 | 50%104 W · 104 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc37…310dbacked New York Yankees | 43c | 5,128$2,224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,903.62 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +130.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed83…a91fbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 57c | 5,000$2,850 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,850 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -4.3wins | -0.29per pick | 42cpaid | -66%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a2…372abacked New York Yankees | 43c | 3,371$1,449 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,921.34 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Toronto Blue Jays | 58c | 3,173$1,840 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,840.34 | 234 | 55.6%130 W · 104 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Toronto Blue Jays | 58c | 2,727$1,581 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,581.39 | 272 | 54.4%148 W · 124 L | +12.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e7…12febacked Toronto Blue Jays | 59c | 2,367$1,397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,396.53 | 83 | 56.6%47 W · 36 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4dbe…af34backed New York Yankees | 42c | 1,846$775 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,070.53 | 564 | 51.1%288 W · 276 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 57c | 1,518$873 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$872.63 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a32…6d7ebacked Toronto Blue Jays | 57c | 1,500$855 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$855 | 96 | 51%49 W · 47 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d03…369abacked Toronto Blue Jays | 57c | 1,319$756 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$755.86 | 68 | 33.8%23 W · 45 L | -9.0wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 59c | 1,213$716 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$715.67 | 631 | 52.6%332 W · 299 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Toronto Blue Jays | 57c | 1,205$684 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$684.06 | 731 | 49.4%361 W · 370 L | +23.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2619…9f4ebacked Toronto Blue Jays | 57c | 1,200$690 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$690 | 70 | 41.4%29 W · 41 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb789…706fbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 58c | 1,160$673 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$672.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb36…9545backed Toronto Blue Jays | 57c | 1,000$570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$570 | 106 | 46.2%49 W · 57 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Toronto Blue Jays | 57c | 999.99$570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$569.99 | 958 | 50%479 W · 479 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefc9…b337backed Toronto Blue Jays | 57c | 819.79$471 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$470.77 | 63 | 50.8%32 W · 31 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb123…0a15backed Toronto Blue Jays | 57c | 700$399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e7…3c1abacked Toronto Blue Jays | 59c | 695$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410.05 | 277 | 51.3%142 W · 135 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedae…584fbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 57c | 600$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed New York Yankees | 43c | 500$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285 | 927 | 54.9%509 W · 418 L | -19.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dd1…009bbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 58c | 344.83$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 45 | 57.8%26 W · 19 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 69c | 343.58$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.75 | 1,328 | 51.4%682 W · 646 L | +25.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb43…9d70backed New York Yankees | 30c | 333.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.33 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +2.0wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Toronto Blue Jays | 59c | 303.25$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.92 | 115 | 44.3%51 W · 64 L | -6.5wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 58c | 280.35$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.71 | 1,355 | 49.8%675 W · 680 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb98b…7e18backed Toronto Blue Jays | 16c | 251$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.58 | 169 | 34.9%59 W · 110 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc732…097bbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 62c | 220$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.8 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…7017backed Toronto Blue Jays | 56c | 200$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 197 | 47.2%93 W · 104 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b8c…abbabacked Toronto Blue Jays | 58c | 100$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x613b…823abacked New York Yankees | 37c | 100$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 160 | 53.1%85 W · 75 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed New York Yankees | 43c | 69.77$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.77 | 443 | 48.5%215 W · 228 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x880b…877cbacked New York Yankees | 43c | 65$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.05 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed New York Yankees | 42c | 51$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.58 | 6,302 | 48.3%3,041 W · 3,261 L | +181.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02f7…b17abacked New York Yankees | 43c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 16 | 81.3%13 W · 3 L | +5.3wins | +0.33per pick | 48cpaid | +71.6%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xbc02…958abacked Toronto Blue Jays | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.75 | 59 | 35.6%21 W · 38 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -33%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6fe4…bafcbacked New York Yankees | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.51 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb3…5874backed New York Yankees | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.51 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb220…5efbbacked New York Yankees | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)this page
- Blue Jays vs. YankeesYankees won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees: O/U 7.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.