TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Will Trump resign today?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$9,746,847
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$8,011,122

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,746,847 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 278 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8b5a…00f2backed Yes0c1,596,626$7,728 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,728.0290%0 W · 9 L-2.1wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd968…d5ecbacked Yes1c600,000$3,660 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,659.9230%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x113a…89c0backed Yes0c410,744$1,512 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,512.2320%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4f3d…f5d2backed Yes0c362,694$1,166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,166.1320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6480…8dc5backed Yes0c352,635$1,258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,257.9150%0 W · 15 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2be4…01adbacked Yes0c216,398$862 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$861.51728.6%2 W · 5 L+1.0wins+0.14per pick14cpaid+15.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x79df…0beabacked Yes1c207,898$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,50020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7d5d…91d8backed Yes1c126,465$885 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$885.2130%0 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x557f…70d8backed Yes1c118,990$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd092…1015backed Yes1c102,721$514 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$513.6825%2 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-63.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc472…ced9backed Yes1c100,000$650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$649.8425%1 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick16cpaid-54.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6e46…8f87backed Yes0c100,000$420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42060%0 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked Yes0c99,000$298 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$298610%0 W · 61 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5286…0d47backed Yes0c93,444$434 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6028…10eebacked Yes1c84,942$595 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$594.5930%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4685…4de3backed Yes1c83,333$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8c54…7e8cbacked Yes0c79,885$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$319.542425%6 W · 18 L+1.5wins+0.06per pick19cpaid-13.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa197…e5b8backed Yes1c64,142$504 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe3e…8d9bbacked Yes0c61,666$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6866…6d3dbacked Yes1c57,778$520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$520250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.24per pick26cpaid-2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x62f7…129abacked Yes1c57,200$328 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$328922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.5wins-0.16per pick39cpaid-53.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa61e…0abdbacked Yes1c55,977$337 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$336.781136.4%4 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-48%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes1c53,275$389 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$388.672015%3 W · 17 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick20cpaid-66.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xef60…d6c2backed Yes1c50,000$370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3703020%6 W · 24 L-2.3wins-0.08per pick28cpaid-52%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x75e7…9080backed Yes1c48,000$298 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$297.632626.4%86 W · 240 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x35cc…1704backed Yes1c43,199$427 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$427.2410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc8a7…60fcbacked Yes1c42,857$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb29…625bbacked Yes1c42,036$294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$294.2590%0 W · 9 L-1.4wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3a75…a578backed Yes1c37,500$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x301a…edf5backed Yes1c37,009$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40020%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1aee…79cabacked Yes1c33,333$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdf3f…16a6backed Yes1c29,700$238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$237.610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe900…a68ebacked Yes1c28,948$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.7410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x24c8…23e1backed Yes0c28,626$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.715124.5%37 W · 114 L-3.7wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-42%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1bc2…8898backed Yes1c28,590$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.9510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdf42…1a14backed Yes0c27,092$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9399…2fc6backed Yes1c26,596$385 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd69e…c304backed Yes1c25,534$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211.330%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0242…565dbacked Yes1c25,000$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20040%0 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x37e5…72ddbacked Yes0c25,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5030%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe5f6…564cbacked Yes1c24,875$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x96e0…0d80backed Yes0c24,758$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.0310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4631…fd9dbacked Yes1c24,261$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22030%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd1ff…a0f9backed Yes0c23,958$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.8310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6dd4…5666backed Yes1c23,722$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18030%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3764…85eabacked Yes1c23,000$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf020…e10abacked Yes1c22,500$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.540%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7887…87aabacked Yes1c21,011$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.720%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb72b…f4e0backed Yes1c20,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001822.2%4 W · 14 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick28cpaid-23%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf3ab…daccbacked Yes0c20,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick9cpaid+98%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa0bc…0d48backed Yes1c20,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x37a4…a487backed Yes1c20,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1006246.8%29 W · 33 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x25a9…f991backed Yes1c20,000$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.21per pick13cpaid+33.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked Yes1c20,000$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.51625%4 W · 12 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick31cpaid+12.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbbeb…19dabacked Yes1c19,800$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7d9d…5954backed Yes1c18,750$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.33per pick17cpaid+51.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8d0f…cac7backed Yes1c18,081$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.0610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2065…1a64backed Yes1c17,667$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x07eb…63bcbacked Yes1c17,541$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.9410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xefff…f4e2backed Yes1c17,532$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.1920%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc99c…f913backed Yes1c17,365$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.4119.1%1 W · 10 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick6cpaid+13.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd7b0…533bbacked Yes1c16,667$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002133.3%7 W · 14 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid-14.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x135e…4086backed Yes1c16,286$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa69f…c41fbacked Yes1c16,122$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.7310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x75ac…33d7backed Yes1c16,000$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11232029.1%93 W · 227 L+3.9wins+0.01per pick28cpaid-14.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc6ad…3ba6backed Yes1c15,743$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.4320%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x12d6…f2a8backed Yes0c15,700$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.593221.9%7 W · 25 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick25cpaid-57.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb64e…9379backed Yes0c15,000$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-6.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8a5e…326bbacked Yes1c15,000$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11530%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xafdc…e9c9backed Yes1c14,750$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11250%0 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfef4…6cf4backed Yes1c14,286$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xadb4…0157backed Yes1c14,092$209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208.8110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1580…a7c9backed Yes1c13,480$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x06a5…019abacked Yes1c13,453$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.3410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7198…0340backed Yes1c13,393$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10050%0 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7216…e7d0backed Yes1c12,667$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.28per pick5cpaid+267.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2893…9f69backed Yes1c12,500$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x453b…5eccbacked Yes1c12,250$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2501…472cbacked Yes0c12,245$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.9810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbfc8…1b31backed Yes0c12,020$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.0410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8996…fbcebacked Yes1c12,000$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$722035%7 W · 13 L+2.8wins+0.14per pick21cpaid+53.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3a38…ada9backed Yes0c12,000$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49520%1 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick28cpaid-68.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2f1a…b0efbacked Yes1c11,905$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7d3b…050fbacked Yes1c11,824$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f3d…5a44backed Yes1c11,279$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.0210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5510…2083backed Yes1c11,011$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.1340%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x57b0…76f4backed Yes1c10,900$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.036241.9%26 W · 36 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc9de…2545backed Yes1c10,714$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa4e7…723ebacked Yes1c10,610$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.93147.1%1 W · 13 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick10cpaid-49%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf624…b3adbacked Yes1c10,280$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.0610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8400…98a3backed Yes0c10,200$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.640%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa787…67e2backed Yes1c10,142$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.1340%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x02c7…3df7backed Yes1c10,000$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.491315.4%2 W · 11 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick18cpaid-68.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6625…e343backed Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f58…0ff0backed Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102321.7%5 W · 18 L+1.7wins+0.08per pick14cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb6be…fcfebacked Yes1c10,000$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6015332.7%50 W · 103 L-0.6wins0.00per pick33cpaid-16.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd39b…9343backed Yes0c10,000$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$351020%2 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-62.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd39…ea5fbacked Yes0c10,000$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc981…a75dbacked Yes1c10,000$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$703928.2%11 W · 28 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick23cpaid-28.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2b84…4a84backed Yes1c9,400$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.