TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Chess · resolved market

Will Vincent Keymer win the 2025 FIDE Grand Swiss chess tournament?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Chessevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$27,947
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$20,889

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,947 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Chess is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Chess
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa0ba…e7ebbacked No67c5,000$3,350 inWon+$1,6505147.1%24 W · 27 L+6.2wins+0.12per pick35cpaid+113.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xb8c5…0166backed Yes24c3,100$730 inLost-$729.962015%3 W · 17 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick19cpaid-59.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x705d…f3a9backed Yes6c2,843$181 inLost-$181.3912313%16 W · 107 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick12cpaid-24%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9a7b…d6ccbacked Yes43c1,693$728 inLost-$72810%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfa01…f0a7backed Yes11c1,524$162 inLost-$161.847441.9%31 W · 43 L+2.1wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-11.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0113…6f26backed Yes33c1,248$412 inLost-$4123435.3%12 W · 22 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x17d4…d3aabacked Yes12c1,164$135 inLost-$134.71717.6%3 W · 14 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick19cpaid+53.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x555f…012bbacked Yes10c920$93 inLost-$92.922729.6%8 W · 19 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick26cpaid+11.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xed65…b1b2backed Yes8c625$50 inLost-$50616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.11per pick27cpaid-66%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5025…dd30backed Yes20c502.5$100 inLost-$100742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.11per pick32cpaid+11.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7f1a…d191backed Yes10c500$50 inLost-$50911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick14cpaid+11.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes7c455.09$31 inLost-$31.131757.4%13 W · 162 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick7cpaid-42.8%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x3673…7c89backed Yes30c373.54$112 inLost-$111.752917.2%5 W · 24 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick16cpaid-42.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1c0d…2b92backed Yes8c250$20 inLost-$20616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick13cpaid+15.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3167…679ebacked Yes19c248.51$48 inLost-$48.431010%1 W · 9 L-1.0wins-0.10per pick20cpaid-81.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6d89…340cbacked Yes6c235$13 inLost-$12.971338.5%5 W · 8 L+1.2wins+0.09per pick29cpaid+15.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2d92…7822backed Yes14c227.71$32 inLost-$31.96333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.12per pick22cpaid-25.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x50e6…e838backed Yes6c220$14 inLost-$14.21127.3%3 W · 8 L+1.8wins+0.16per pick11cpaid+195.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x927f…e7e7backed Yes8c200$16 inLost-$162133.3%7 W · 14 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-24.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9dea…08a5backed Yes10c200$20 inLost-$20911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick18cpaid-72.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xec00…f896backed Yes8c200$16 inLost-$161010%1 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick13cpaid-83.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5804…8ddebacked Yes11c136.36$15 inLost-$1510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x93fc…3256backed Yes8c125$10 inLost-$10520%1 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick14cpaid-40.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf797…0bf2backed Yes18c112$20 inLost-$20.073531.4%11 W · 24 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick29cpaid-27.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x36bf…2864backed Yes32c31.25$10 inLost-$1011631%36 W · 80 L+7.6wins+0.07per pick24cpaid+8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5fe5…8b99backed No79c30$24 inWon+$6.45837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.11per pick48cpaid-47.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Chess and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.