Chess · resolved market

Will Arjun Erigaisi win the 2025 FIDE Grand Swiss chess tournament?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x92e50de128e398569e0f81f4c09e17bd94e980e88c80a380adbb20c63a1d769a

Rebuilt 12 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Sep 15, 2025, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Chessevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $39,073
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $32,684

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,073 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Chess is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Chess
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x1cf9…b4cabacked Yes	10c	9,948$968 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$967.83	14	0%0 W · 14 L	-3.4wins	-0.24per pick	24cpaid	-100%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x17d4…d3aabacked Yes	3c	1,111$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.04	17	17.6%3 W · 14 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	19cpaid	+53.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd703…b62ebacked Yes	21c	750$158 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$157.5	10	50%5 W · 5 L	+0.2wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+14.1%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x93fc…3256backed Yes	9c	500$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45	5	20%1 W · 4 L	+0.3wins	+0.06per pick	14cpaid	-40.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xefde…783dbacked Yes	13c	500$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65	77	35.1%27 W · 50 L	-2.5wins	-0.03per pick	38cpaid	-29.4%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf797…0bf2backed Yes	22c	300$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66	35	31.4%11 W · 24 L	+0.8wins	+0.02per pick	29cpaid	-27.1%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1c0d…2b92backed Yes	10c	250$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	+0.2wins	+0.03per pick	13cpaid	+15.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes	6c	248.3$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.59	110	11.8%13 W · 97 L	-4.5wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-60.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xec00…f896backed Yes	8c	200$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	10	10%1 W · 9 L	-0.3wins	-0.03per pick	13cpaid	-83.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x705d…f3a9backed Yes	7c	146.02$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.83	123	13%16 W · 107 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	12cpaid	-24%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1237…06afbacked Yes	21c	122.8$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.79	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.3wins	+0.15per pick	35cpaid	+4.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9c4b…8a81backed Yes	10c	102.68$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	14	21.4%3 W · 11 L	+0.3wins	+0.02per pick	19cpaid	-44.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbcf6…2b07backed Yes	10c	100$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Chess and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Arjun Erigaisi win the 2025 FIDE Grand Swiss chess tournament?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event