TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Chess · resolved market

Will Matthias Bluebaum win the 2025 FIDE Grand Swiss chess tournament?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Chessevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$9,163
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$3,764

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,163 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 9 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Chess is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Chess
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb8c5…0166backed Yes1c2,381$29 inLost-$29.472015%3 W · 17 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick19cpaid-59.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x705d…f3a9backed Yes4c1,285$52 inLost-$51.5512313%16 W · 107 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick12cpaid-24%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf2f6…5817backed Yes17c300$51 inLost-$513330.3%10 W · 23 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick29cpaid-29.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf797…0bf2backed No70c238.83$168 inWon+$71.133531.4%11 W · 24 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick29cpaid-27.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf4ef…fa51backed Yes34c147$50 inLost-$49.98714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.10per pick24cpaid-81.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfa01…f0a7backed Yes17c100.43$17 inLost-$16.797441.9%31 W · 43 L+2.1wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-11.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf772…36a6backed Yes40c69$28 inLost-$27.6616.7%1 W · 5 L-2.0wins-0.33per pick50cpaid-77.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4df7…522dbacked No70c33.33$23 inWon+$10250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-28.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x67a7…86cebacked No59c18$11 inWon+$7.473511.4%4 W · 31 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick14cpaid-76.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Chess and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.