Chess · resolved market

Will Rameshbabu Praggnanandhaa win the 2025 FIDE Grand Swiss chess tournament?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdec44af086e46345b90da709e8f7de98c80df2809bf2f748a56057552c84a047

Rebuilt 19 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Sep 15, 2025, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Chessevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $22,506
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $11,153

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,506 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Chess is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Chess
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x17d4…d3aabacked Yes	13c	1,324$168 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$168.47	17	17.6%3 W · 14 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	19cpaid	+53.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3167…679ebacked Yes	11c	931.16$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$98.68	10	10%1 W · 9 L	-1.0wins	-0.10per pick	20cpaid	-81.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x705d…f3a9backed Yes	8c	781.59$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.1	123	13%16 W · 107 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	12cpaid	-24%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x93fc…3256backed Yes	12c	500$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	5	20%1 W · 4 L	+0.3wins	+0.06per pick	14cpaid	-40.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7f1a…d191backed Yes	11c	492.04$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	-0.3wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	+11.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xefde…783dbacked Yes	10c	300$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	77	35.1%27 W · 50 L	-2.5wins	-0.03per pick	38cpaid	-29.4%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1c0d…2b92backed Yes	13c	245$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.5	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	+0.2wins	+0.03per pick	13cpaid	+15.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4d02…bfecbacked Yes	6c	200.01$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.13	8	37.5%3 W · 5 L	+0.2wins	+0.02per pick	35cpaid	+20.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x927f…e7e7backed Yes	13c	200$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	21	33.3%7 W · 14 L	+0.4wins	+0.02per pick	32cpaid	-24.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec00…f896backed Yes	12c	200$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	10	10%1 W · 9 L	-0.3wins	-0.03per pick	13cpaid	-83.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x66ca…2104backed Yes	14c	107.14$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.2wins	+0.07per pick	26cpaid	-38.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7494…a398backed Yes	32c	102.37$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.7wins	-0.18per pick	43cpaid	-64.7%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa0ba…e7ebbacked No	67c	74.04$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24.43	51	47.1%24 W · 27 L	+6.2wins	+0.12per pick	35cpaid	+113.5%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Chess and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Rameshbabu Praggnanandhaa win the 2025 FIDE Grand Swiss chess tournament?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event