Chess · resolved market

Will Hans Moke Niemann win the 2025 FIDE Grand Swiss chess tournament?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0449f5f012d773acaa29e9316e762ef5d433b154ac9ae1bda5cc200f955c601b

Rebuilt 8 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Sep 15, 2025, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Chessevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $24,210
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $7,309

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,210 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Chess is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Chess
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	1c	4,168$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.13	175	7.4%13 W · 162 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-42.8%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xb8c5…0166backed Yes	1c	2,534$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.34	20	15%3 W · 17 L	-0.8wins	-0.04per pick	19cpaid	-59.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x705d…f3a9backed Yes	2c	1,936$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.99	123	13%16 W · 107 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	12cpaid	-24%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd986…1320backed Yes	6c	1,000$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61	52	32.7%17 W · 35 L	-0.8wins	-0.02per pick	34cpaid	-36.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb04…8b8abacked Yes	2c	986.52$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	30	10%3 W · 27 L	+0.6wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	+264.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b16…a4fcbacked Yes	4c	900$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.3wins	-0.13per pick	13cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9ca7…4cd3backed Yes	3c	716$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.18	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.2wins	+0.11per pick	39cpaid	-32.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd49…6602backed Yes	7c	695.83$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	5	60%3 W · 2 L	+1.4wins	+0.28per pick	32cpaid	+27.2%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x17d4…d3aabacked Yes	8c	662$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	17	17.6%3 W · 14 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	19cpaid	+53.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d89…340cbacked Yes	5c	647$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.35	13	38.5%5 W · 8 L	+1.2wins	+0.09per pick	29cpaid	+15.5%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2d92…7822backed Yes	6c	620$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.78	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.4wins	+0.12per pick	22cpaid	-25.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5ecd…0787backed Yes	5c	567$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.35	16	50%8 W · 8 L	+0.6wins	+0.04per pick	46cpaid	-20.5%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3167…679ebacked Yes	17c	431.75$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$74.86	10	10%1 W · 9 L	-1.0wins	-0.10per pick	20cpaid	-81.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x927f…e7e7backed Yes	6c	400$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	21	33.3%7 W · 14 L	+0.4wins	+0.02per pick	32cpaid	-24.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb175…236cbacked Yes	6c	235$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.1	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xec00…f896backed Yes	6c	200$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	10	10%1 W · 9 L	-0.3wins	-0.03per pick	13cpaid	-83.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9dea…08a5backed Yes	20c	100.47$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	-0.6wins	-0.06per pick	18cpaid	-72.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Chess and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Hans Moke Niemann win the 2025 FIDE Grand Swiss chess tournament?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event