TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Chess · resolved market

Will Alireza Firouzja win the 2025 FIDE Grand Swiss chess tournament?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Chessevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$23,505
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$18,968

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,505 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Chess is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Chess
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1cf9…b4cabacked Yes9c10,547$995 inLost-$994.94140%0 W · 14 L-3.4wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xb8c5…0166backed Yes6c2,500$147 inLost-$1472015%3 W · 17 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick19cpaid-59.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd986…1320backed No78c1,925$1,505 inWon+$419.925232.7%17 W · 35 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-36.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x94e5…6cfebacked Yes18c1,352$241 inLost-$241.211428.6%4 W · 10 L-3.1wins-0.22per pick51cpaid-59.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x705d…f3a9backed Yes21c735.84$156 inLost-$156.2712313%16 W · 107 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick12cpaid-24%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x17d4…d3aabacked Yes30c611.23$183 inLost-$183.181717.6%3 W · 14 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick19cpaid+53.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5ecd…0787backed Yes7c555$39 inLost-$38.851650%8 W · 8 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-20.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x01d6…166fbacked Yes24c396.5$95 inLost-$95.1610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd9df…b59ebacked Yes14c323.23$46 inLost-$4610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3167…679ebacked Yes14c283.82$38 inLost-$38.431010%1 W · 9 L-1.0wins-0.10per pick20cpaid-81.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd82e…7fc0backed Yes24c208.33$50 inLost-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec00…f896backed Yes7c200$14 inLost-$141010%1 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick13cpaid-83.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa815…9cbebacked Yes7c164.77$12 inLost-$11.710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb45c…69b7backed Yes28c136.98$38 inLost-$3810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa0ba…e7ebbacked No67c134.77$90 inWon+$44.475147.1%24 W · 27 L+6.2wins+0.12per pick35cpaid+113.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x89b5…ab4cbacked Yes27c100$27 inLost-$26.75223.1%12 W · 40 L-2.6wins-0.05per pick28cpaid-57.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x58e6…2c48backed Yes15c95$14 inLost-$13.91711.8%2 W · 15 L-1.2wins-0.07per pick19cpaid-31.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcf36…94e8backed Yes19c80$15 inLost-$15.310%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x555f…012bbacked Yes23c79.99$18 inLost-$182729.6%8 W · 19 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick26cpaid+11.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0edd…3db1backed No75c70$53 inWon+$17.51346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid-5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes22c65$15 inLost-$14.621757.4%13 W · 162 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick7cpaid-42.8%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x55b4…e39fbacked No78c60.64$47 inWon+$13.643100%3 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+39.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9ca7…4cd3backed No75c20$15 inWon+$5.1250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid-32.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Chess and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.