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NBA · resolved market

Hawks vs. Clippers

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Hawksof Hawks, Clippers
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,856,053
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,906,173

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,856,053 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 866 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3987…259ebacked Clippers64c501,578$321,010 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$321,010.038022.5%18 W · 62 L-10.0wins-0.12per pick35cpaid-49.4%equal weight39-0.09 edge/pick
0x0d3b…c46bbacked Hawks36c263,102$94,717 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$168,385.057745.5%35 W · 42 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid+2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca5a…7e43backed Hawks15c78,858$11,828 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67,030.042941.4%12 W · 17 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-6.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2f09…4632backed Hawks37c75,000$27,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47,499.9520253.5%108 W · 94 L+6.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc996…bb65backed Clippers78c73,313$57,251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57,250.9847144.2%208 W · 263 L-10.1wins-0.02per pick46cpaid+0.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc3c3…eec8backed Clippers21c63,503$13,069 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,069.0738248.7%186 W · 196 L+13.9wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+0.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x83b9…6124backed Hawks59c43,565$25,890 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,675.2936148.5%175 W · 186 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2c67…377ebacked Hawks36c43,000$15,480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27,5201643.8%7 W · 9 L+0.9wins+0.06per pick38cpaid-11.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9267…0f9abacked Hawks36c40,000$14,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25,60059653.4%318 W · 278 L+4.3wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3151…0977backed Hawks63c38,670$24,402 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,268.5919249.5%95 W · 97 L+0.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-13.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf267…e0e1backed Hawks39c36,738$14,249 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22,489.31944.4%4 W · 5 L+1.0wins+0.11per pick34cpaid+19.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8f03…64d6backed Clippers64c36,000$23,040 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23,0401,04651.1%534 W · 512 L-0.7wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xafba…e61bbacked Clippers64c35,305$22,595 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22,595.4647848.1%230 W · 248 L-9.9wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5139…a8dbbacked Hawks36c34,264$12,335 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21,928.9669852%363 W · 335 L+10.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdeaf…dbaabacked Hawks25c33,944$8,611 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25,332.4337930.6%116 W · 263 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick29cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf6c…7e66backed Clippers62c28,742$17,705 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,704.6159646.1%275 W · 321 L-16.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9e2f…ec47backed Hawks37c22,565$8,355 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,210.2274748.5%362 W · 385 L+8.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4991…5ecdbacked Hawks34c20,829$7,161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,667.842626.9%7 W · 19 L-3.6wins-0.14per pick41cpaid-30.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3c82…e0cbbacked Clippers23c20,126$4,728 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,727.9827041.5%112 W · 158 L+10.7wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+2.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5b8e…5c3cbacked Hawks36c19,381$6,985 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,395.9644459.7%265 W · 179 L+12.4wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Clippers55c15,702$8,611 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,611.461,19032%381 W · 809 L-58.1wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-34.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1e3a…4033backed Clippers64c15,628$10,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,00034062.1%211 W · 129 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x17c1…a606backed Clippers64c13,950$8,928 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,9282352.2%12 W · 11 L-2.6wins-0.11per pick63cpaid-21.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Clippers56c13,188$7,365 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,365.473,99548.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L+101.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Hawks36c12,806$4,610 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,195.522,29851.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L+65.4wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x057a…3bacbacked Clippers55c12,085$6,664 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,663.5826038.1%99 W · 161 L-9.3wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-24%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc701…f932backed Hawks39c12,000$4,650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,349.85250%26 W · 26 L+2.6wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+0.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Hawks36c10,864$3,909 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,954.419,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x57a8…6933backed Hawks36c10,668$3,841 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,827.892753.5%496 W · 431 L+20.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4534…f867backed Hawks70c10,000$7,010 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,989.9913625.7%35 W · 101 L+0.5wins0.00per pick25cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x37a3…fe17backed Hawks36c9,800$3,528 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,2722250%11 W · 11 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+14.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x516e…100cbacked Clippers64c9,800$6,272 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,272580%4 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.12per pick68cpaid+17.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf6e3…2d57backed Hawks45c8,374$3,768 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,605.621100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+122.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6016…904fbacked Clippers63c8,002$5,041 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,04120%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd14a…e912backed Hawks38c8,000$3,040 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,9607342.5%31 W · 42 L-3.4wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-10.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5ad4…3c1abacked Hawks37c7,776$2,877 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,899.167748.1%37 W · 40 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x94d7…bef5backed Clippers21c7,452$1,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,60025925.9%67 W · 192 L+6.5wins+0.03per pick23cpaid+8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc8a4…9e63backed Clippers61c7,125$4,337 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,336.523345.5%15 W · 18 L-3.6wins-0.11per pick56cpaid-21.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xff12…09f9backed Hawks64c7,082$4,561 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,521.4819388.1%170 W · 23 L+48.6wins+0.25per pick63cpaid+46.2%equal weight75+0.22 edge/pick
0x50be…371bbacked Clippers63c6,803$4,286 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,286.013148.4%15 W · 16 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-14.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4c86…6993backed Clippers6c6,765$395 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$395.434425.6%88 W · 256 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-14.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3eac…4c8cbacked Clippers63c6,581$4,146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,146.0311558.3%67 W · 48 L+5.0wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+3.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Clippers50c6,388$3,181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,180.751,40940.2%567 W · 842 L-40.5wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-23.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Hawks35c6,167$2,176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,991.385742.6%365 W · 492 L-15.6wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-13.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd99…f375backed Clippers34c5,974$2,052 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,051.9538151.2%195 W · 186 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb269…fec6backed Clippers70c5,708$3,984 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,984.1410%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.70per pick70cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x584f…e848backed Hawks36c5,556$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,555.561100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.64per pick36cpaid+177.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Hawks36c5,552$1,999 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,553.562,36148.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L-41.8wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Clippers75c5,420$4,090 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,090.171,38439.4%545 W · 839 L+4.8wins0.00per pick39cpaid-21.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x03ea…6254backed Hawks37c5,151$1,906 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,245.35944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.09per pick54cpaid-14.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4c03…0cc1backed Clippers5c5,000$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2501,60211.8%189 W · 1,413 L-4.8wins0.00per pick12cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3850…c4b4backed Hawks46c5,000$2,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,70012334.1%42 W · 81 L-3.1wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-13.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x52ec…a6f3backed Clippers61c5,000$3,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,049.9343051.4%221 W · 209 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x41b7…f6babacked Clippers51c4,946$2,515 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,515.0980146.4%372 W · 429 L-1.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe916…4563backed Hawks40c4,740$1,876 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,864.18846.6%41 W · 47 L+3.8wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+6.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Clippers46c4,626$2,148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,147.693,34243.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L+81.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5116…58c4backed Clippers56c4,555$2,569 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,568.5876850.3%386 W · 382 L-5.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3719…2df0backed Hawks45c4,524$2,031 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,492.392941.4%12 W · 17 L-2.8wins-0.10per pick51cpaid-13.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6239…c24fbacked Hawks36c4,476$1,611 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,864.8895049.4%469 W · 481 L+10.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9733…f034backed Hawks54c4,386$2,363 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,023.171471.4%10 W · 4 L+1.5wins+0.11per pick60cpaid+16.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0a7e…fce4backed Hawks36c4,302$1,530 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,772.5761835.4%219 W · 399 L+7.8wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+6.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb43…3c74backed Clippers61c4,286$2,614 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,614.4147748.8%233 W · 244 L+1.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3166…f649backed Clippers38c4,107$1,578 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,578.0210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Hawks36c4,000$1,440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,5601,82052.1%948 W · 872 L+48.5wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc550…353fbacked Hawks36c4,000$1,440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,5606636.4%24 W · 42 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-12.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8198…e96ebacked Clippers57c3,995$2,263 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,262.6716446.3%76 W · 88 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7cd4…8ed6backed Clippers31c3,806$1,173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,172.991050%5 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-29.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7fdd…5feabacked Hawks27c3,773$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,772.943243.8%14 W · 18 L+1.9wins+0.06per pick38cpaid+13.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4fd1…4ea6backed Hawks41c3,651$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,150.582544%11 W · 14 L-1.5wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-18.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x79cb…331ebacked Clippers9c3,635$317 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$316.788783%26 W · 852 L-22.3wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-62%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb786…b18dbacked Clippers61c3,575$2,191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,191.031,31650.5%664 W · 652 L+42.4wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-0.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x86fc…bfadbacked Clippers28c3,568$995 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$994.54166.3%1 W · 15 L-1.7wins-0.11per pick17cpaid-90.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x198b…f2ecbacked Hawks53c3,306$1,766 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,540.698356.6%47 W · 36 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-9.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Clippers36c3,264$1,172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,171.931,11341.6%463 W · 650 L-10.0wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-17.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2c7b…dc0cbacked Clippers65c3,074$1,998 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,998633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.22per pick55cpaid-48.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x31b0…8c4cbacked Hawks31c3,070$948 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,122.711750.4%59 W · 58 L+3.7wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Hawks65c3,056$1,982 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,074.141,91054.3%1,038 W · 872 L+25.2wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x90ba…63f3backed Hawks36c3,050$1,098 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,9521,78228%499 W · 1,283 L+11.5wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4278…0e92backed Hawks34c3,000$1,020 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,980.441652.2%217 W · 199 L+1.2wins0.00per pick52cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdf43…ae9abacked Clippers66c3,000$1,980 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,98029652.7%156 W · 140 L-8.7wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-5.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x30b8…f41fbacked Clippers63c3,000$1,890 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,890837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.7wins-0.21per pick58cpaid-44%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x311b…080dbacked Hawks45c2,951$1,340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,610.775350.9%27 W · 26 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xea80…7296backed Clippers26c2,950$753 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$752.79316.5%2 W · 29 L-3.6wins-0.12per pick18cpaid-77.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8f7a…db40backed Clippers28c2,781$782 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$781.5618047.8%86 W · 94 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-6.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe831…a42abacked Clippers64c2,750$1,762 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,762.4918349.2%90 W · 93 L+10.5wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+17.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x81f5…70afbacked Clippers62c2,750$1,692 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,691.9719448.5%94 W · 100 L+0.3wins0.00per pick48cpaid+3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x60cd…a1b6backed Clippers59c2,708$1,590 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,589.768251.2%42 W · 40 L+4.3wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+12.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa727…8289backed Hawks36c2,688$968 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,720.347261.1%44 W · 28 L+3.6wins+0.05per pick56cpaid+4.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb7b3…9573backed Hawks26c2,678$703 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,975.0273649.9%367 W · 369 L-5.8wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Hawks64c2,527$1,618 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$908.362,63036.7%966 W · 1,664 L-119.1wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-25.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe235…aba2backed Clippers60c2,497$1,498 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,497.9618345.9%84 W · 99 L-16.4wins-0.09per pick55cpaid-16.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x400f…e712backed Hawks77c2,469$1,902 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$566.851145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa763…709ebacked Clippers19c2,452$466 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$465.8819845.5%90 W · 108 L-4.8wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-11.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd355…b6a6backed Clippers62c2,418$1,507 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,507.1620%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8367…2a2abacked Hawks40c2,385$953 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,431.983842.1%16 W · 22 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf704…bed4backed Hawks42c2,383$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,382.9516943.8%74 W · 95 L-5.4wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-12.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2129…4222backed Hawks50c2,379$1,199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,180.2847448.7%231 W · 243 L-0.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid+5.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb06c…6961backed Clippers64c2,349$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,50028063.6%178 W · 102 L+13.3wins+0.05per pick59cpaid+11.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9a3f…914abacked Hawks36c2,234$807 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,427.4842640.4%172 W · 254 L+13.9wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-3.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x73da…b7acbacked Clippers44c2,200$973 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$973.4920057%114 W · 86 L+3.3wins+0.02per pick55cpaid-1.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.