NBA · resolved market

Spread: Clippers (-4.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7bf26ae93bcdaa7418a9cbe7d87c954916820c6a6ff0061b2627b78d11b63896

Rebuilt 7 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Hawksof Clippers, Hawks
Resolved: Nov 11, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $443,027
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $466,147

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $443,027 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 87 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x9165…5b98backed Hawks	50c	319,002$160,160 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$158,842.46	252	48.4%122 W · 130 L	-5.9wins	-0.02per pick	51cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f03…64d6backed Clippers	50c	200,867$100,312 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100,312.28	1,046	51.1%534 W · 512 L	-0.7wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xafba…e61bbacked Clippers	50c	61,839$30,974 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30,973.74	478	48.1%230 W · 248 L	-9.9wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Clippers	49c	61,346$30,247 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30,247.21	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc3c3…eec8backed Clippers	53c	30,000$15,900 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15,899.99	382	48.7%186 W · 196 L	+13.9wins	+0.04per pick	45cpaid	+0.2%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Hawks	47c	20,058$9,436 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10,622.16	2,298	51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L	+65.4wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6734…2e18backed Hawks	51c	19,711$9,984 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9,727.33	74	59.5%44 W · 30 L	+2.7wins	+0.04per pick	56cpaid	+10.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Hawks	51c	16,364$8,285 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8,079.88	8,988	47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L	+96.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2129…4222backed Clippers	49c	12,031$5,852 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,852.44	474	48.7%231 W · 243 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Clippers	49c	4,638$2,273 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,272.6	1,139	48.3%550 W · 589 L	+3.5wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4818…fde0backed Hawks	49c	3,581$1,766 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,815.17	517	53.8%278 W · 239 L	+11.6wins	+0.02per pick	52cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc996…bb65backed Hawks	49c	3,521$1,739 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,781.99	471	44.2%208 W · 263 L	-10.1wins	-0.02per pick	46cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Clippers	50c	3,258$1,619 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,619.25	2,265	43.4%982 W · 1,283 L	-26.7wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3151…0977backed Hawks	47c	2,757$1,296 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,461.27	192	49.5%95 W · 97 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-13.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9827…e5ffbacked Clippers	50c	2,700$1,350 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,350	30	50%15 W · 15 L	+0.7wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Clippers	49c	2,666$1,314 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,314.37	3,285	49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L	+5.3wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Clippers	49c	2,171$1,064 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,063.79	6,213	50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L	+53.8wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb3d0…5c32backed Clippers	52c	2,112$1,098 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,098.08	41	29.3%12 W · 29 L	-1.8wins	-0.04per pick	34cpaid	-25.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1d3a…7b63backed Hawks	49c	1,743$847 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$895.38	762	49.5%377 W · 385 L	-8.7wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	+0.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3cb6…15cdbacked Hawks	50c	1,690$845 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$845	21	52.4%11 W · 10 L	+0.5wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+14.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Clippers	49c	1,500$735 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$735	2,361	48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L	-41.8wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe83c…5e8fbacked Clippers	49c	1,429$700 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$700.21	1,451	49.7%721 W · 730 L	+18.0wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Clippers	49c	1,192$587 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$587.16	2,796	50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L	+27.9wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7a30…8abdbacked Hawks	50c	1,004$500 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$503.5	507	54.2%275 W · 232 L	+13.6wins	+0.03per pick	52cpaid	+5.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8ddb…420bbacked Hawks	51c	1,002$511 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$490.96	294	58.5%172 W · 122 L	+6.0wins	+0.02per pick	56cpaid	-0.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf6b2…6d9dbacked Clippers	52c	769.23$400 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$400	59	45.8%27 W · 32 L	-3.0wins	-0.05per pick	51cpaid	-10.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6f0d…8d9dbacked Clippers	53c	735.85$390 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$390	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-1.2wins	-0.19per pick	53cpaid	-36.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbc65…96c8backed Hawks	51c	632.76$323 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$310.05	337	35.3%119 W · 218 L	+1.3wins	0.00per pick	35cpaid	+4.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xabfc…0fc2backed Hawks	51c	612.47$312 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$300.11	62	51.6%32 W · 30 L	+1.1wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+7.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa80e…9fd6backed Hawks	60c	598.33$359 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$239.33	102	23.5%24 W · 78 L	-5.8wins	-0.06per pick	29cpaid	-17.4%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5139…a8dbbacked Hawks	47c	560$263 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$296.8	698	52%363 W · 335 L	+10.3wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2630…e941backed Clippers	49c	549.61$270 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$270.31	428	45.1%193 W · 235 L	-15.7wins	-0.04per pick	49cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd04d…bfc2backed Hawks	48c	496.15$237 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$259.46	2,435	49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L	+30.3wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Clippers	50c	468.77$234 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$234.44	2,512	49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L	+6.9wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x900c…1d7abacked Clippers	51c	439.72$225 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$225.08	710	52.1%370 W · 340 L	+11.9wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x82ba…9fbbbacked Hawks	50c	438.4$219 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$219.2	18	38.9%7 W · 11 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	41cpaid	-17.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf1a3…0c69backed Hawks	51c	400$204 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$196	158	38.6%61 W · 97 L	-11.1wins	-0.07per pick	46cpaid	-27.3%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Hawks	47c	340.29$160 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$180.13	3,120	44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L	-7.6wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x951f…e430backed Hawks	51c	294.12$150 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$144.12	236	52.5%124 W · 112 L	+11.1wins	+0.05per pick	48cpaid	+10.6%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc660…bd28backed Hawks	48c	242.06$116 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$125.87	593	47%279 W · 314 L	-7.3wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-4.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3844…6221backed Clippers	52c	242.06$126 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$125.87	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.9wins	-0.29per pick	62cpaid	-58.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9def…d1a5backed Clippers	52c	210$109 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$109.2	96	49%47 W · 49 L	+4.5wins	+0.05per pick	44cpaid	+7.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6aed…eb43backed Clippers	51c	194.12$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99	30	46.7%14 W · 16 L	-1.0wins	-0.03per pick	50cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3b1b…7d5ebacked Hawks	55c	181.82$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$81.82	55	43.6%24 W · 31 L	-4.2wins	-0.08per pick	51cpaid	-21%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x310a…d559backed Hawks	55c	179.67$99 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$80.85	47	51.1%24 W · 23 L	-1.1wins	-0.02per pick	53cpaid	-10.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa8f5…1caabacked Hawks	47c	168.99$80 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$88.93	801	48.3%387 W · 414 L	-3.3wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x375e…6c94backed Clippers	48c	150$72 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$71.76	85	40%34 W · 51 L	-8.4wins	-0.10per pick	50cpaid	-18.9%equal weight	42-0.08 edge/pick
0x013b…01cfbacked Hawks	50c	145.38$73 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$72.69	19	36.8%7 W · 12 L	-2.8wins	-0.15per pick	52cpaid	-28.6%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x83b9…6124backed Hawks	47c	140$66 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$74.2	361	48.5%175 W · 186 L	-3.5wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x69e1…11a6backed Clippers	52c	115.38$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	14	42.9%6 W · 8 L	+0.3wins	+0.02per pick	41cpaid	-14%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbe80…e0a6backed Clippers	54c	111.11$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	32	50%16 W · 16 L	-0.6wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-4.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd420…df90backed Clippers	49c	102$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.98	514	51.9%267 W · 247 L	+5.0wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xac70…d0e7backed Hawks	51c	100$51 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$49	21	47.6%10 W · 11 L	+2.9wins	+0.14per pick	34cpaid	+22.2%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2663…b0bbbacked Clippers	50c	100$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	17	35.3%6 W · 11 L	-3.4wins	-0.20per pick	56cpaid	-35.4%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x3e0b…cd84backed Clippers	49c	100$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49	123	42.3%52 W · 71 L	-6.9wins	-0.06per pick	48cpaid	-11.1%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x749e…391dbacked Hawks	51c	98.04$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$48.04	23	21.7%5 W · 18 L	-4.2wins	-0.18per pick	40cpaid	-49.3%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0xf5d3…e601backed Clippers	53c	97.47$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.66	135	50.4%68 W · 67 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+0.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7ed6…bbabbacked Clippers	54c	92.59$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	328	53%174 W · 154 L	-2.6wins	-0.01per pick	54cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3d5f…7e6fbacked Hawks	51c	80.39$41 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$39.39	324	50%162 W · 162 L	+0.9wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdc4f…5c00backed Hawks	51c	77.65$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$38.05	90	51.1%46 W · 44 L	-1.6wins	-0.02per pick	53cpaid	-5.2%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x50cc…a534backed Clippers	52c	76.92$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	20	30%6 W · 14 L	-4.0wins	-0.20per pick	50cpaid	-44.5%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Clippers	40c	72.69$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.43	3,995	48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L	+101.9wins	+0.03per pick	46cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2bbb…c7b4backed Hawks	48c	68.02$32 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$35.7	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	-0.3wins	-0.04per pick	47cpaid	-14.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd402…5a50backed Clippers	52c	67.31$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	280	58.2%163 W · 117 L	-2.6wins	-0.01per pick	59cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x602d…3534backed Clippers	54c	64.81$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	377	55.7%210 W · 167 L	+11.1wins	+0.03per pick	53cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc8c3…f46ebacked Clippers	51c	58.37$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	58	51.7%30 W · 28 L	-2.8wins	-0.05per pick	57cpaid	-9.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6a5c…b3f2backed Hawks	50c	56.46$28 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28.07	327	43.4%142 W · 185 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-10.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa1e5…5a2cbacked Hawks	51c	50$26 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24.5	246	53.3%131 W · 115 L	+10.5wins	+0.04per pick	49cpaid	+14.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3a4f…c4f2backed Hawks	50c	50$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25	320	41.9%134 W · 186 L	-2.4wins	-0.01per pick	43cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x709f…635abacked Clippers	51c	46.61$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	23	21.7%5 W · 18 L	-4.6wins	-0.20per pick	42cpaid	-66%equal weight	39-0.09 edge/pick
0x4d2b…6a1dbacked Hawks	55c	45.45$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.45	51	60.8%31 W · 20 L	+3.8wins	+0.07per pick	53cpaid	+16.9%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x787c…7ae2backed Hawks	48c	45$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.4	89	57.3%51 W · 38 L	+2.3wins	+0.03per pick	55cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4d45…9054backed Clippers	51c	41.08$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.03	300	53.3%160 W · 140 L	+9.2wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+7.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe44b…6e0abacked Hawks	49c	40.82$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.82	234	45.7%107 W · 127 L	-4.4wins	-0.02per pick	48cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3e47…a7abbacked Hawks	60c	37.1$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.84	498	52.4%261 W · 237 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	-0.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7935…3ed3backed Hawks	59c	35.59$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.59	10	70%7 W · 3 L	+1.9wins	+0.19per pick	51cpaid	+37.9%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc228…7a7dbacked Hawks	51c	30$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.7	84	57.1%48 W · 36 L	+9.4wins	+0.11per pick	46cpaid	+34.4%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0xd005…56a2backed Hawks	60c	30$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12	13	46.2%6 W · 7 L	-0.9wins	-0.07per pick	53cpaid	-12.7%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0974…003dbacked Clippers	52c	27.82$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.41	180	53.3%96 W · 84 L	+2.0wins	+0.01per pick	52cpaid	+1.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf7f0…4a2cbacked Clippers	54c	27.78$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	319	47.6%152 W · 167 L	-18.8wins	-0.06per pick	54cpaid	-10.9%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xeb5e…82e7backed Hawks	50c	27.44$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.72	13	76.9%10 W · 3 L	+2.7wins	+0.21per pick	56cpaid	+35.1%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed Clippers	51c	25$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.75	1,695	44.7%758 W · 937 L	-30.4wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-11.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x45b8…3c28backed Hawks	55c	23.64$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.64	169	44.4%75 W · 94 L	-4.7wins	-0.03per pick	47cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x59d9…49f2backed Hawks	50c	21.89$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.05	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.3wins	-0.13per pick	63cpaid	+0.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb7d1…4cb7backed Clippers	52c	20$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.4	46	47.8%22 W · 24 L	-2.4wins	-0.05per pick	53cpaid	-10.1%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xeda9…a43fbacked Hawks	50c	20$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10	14	28.6%4 W · 10 L	-2.8wins	-0.20per pick	48cpaid	-44.7%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x730b…7f5bbacked Clippers	53c	20$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.6	12	66.7%8 W · 4 L	+1.3wins	+0.11per pick	56cpaid	+13.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: Clippers (-4.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event