TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Chess · resolved market

Will Alireza Firouzja win the 2025–2026 Speed Chess Championship?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Chessevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$227,045
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$196,061

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $227,045 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 169 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Chess is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Chess
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5286…0d47backed Yes17c14,423$2,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,500.2710%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x705d…f3a9backed Yes9c11,075$991 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$991.2712313%16 W · 107 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick12cpaid-24%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9329…9d3ebacked Yes12c9,193$1,062 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,061.751040%4 W · 6 L+1.0wins+0.10per pick30cpaid+15.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x24a5…b3bbbacked Yes12c7,067$852 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$852.44911.1%1 W · 8 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick9cpaid-7.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8a13…12dbbacked Yes15c7,000$1,030 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,03010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7439…8feebacked Yes11c4,624$514 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$513.56540%2 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.12per pick28cpaid-28.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x36bf…2864backed Yes8c3,751$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$310.4911631%36 W · 80 L+7.6wins+0.07per pick24cpaid+8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xce66…cc64backed Yes3c3,427$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.0110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7f1a…d191backed Yes13c2,901$377 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$377.1911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick14cpaid+11.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a7d…0bf1backed Yes11c2,519$269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$268.57333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-54.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4d0c…e082backed Yes10c2,433$243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$243.48742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.10per pick33cpaid+59.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe75f…2687backed Yes25c2,156$547 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$546.8910%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x920a…29bbbacked Yes2c2,136$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.6210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xecfc…cd05backed Yes11c2,075$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$222.1130%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x62cb…e2e0backed Yes12c1,983$236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$235.9530%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1966…25c0backed Yes13c1,915$254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254.112313%3 W · 20 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick18cpaid-8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x48d9…2a28backed Yes10c1,913$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.333327.3%9 W · 24 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-23.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0b92…6088backed Yes15c1,835$283 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$283.3920%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xff9d…af7cbacked Yes11c1,833$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes10c1,764$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.531757.4%13 W · 162 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick7cpaid-42.8%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x3fdc…45f3backed Yes10c1,711$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.0310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d7c…51b6backed Yes13c1,595$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.4940%0 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc0b5…7543backed Yes17c1,528$263 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$262.6420%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0113…6f26backed Yes11c1,497$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.273435.3%12 W · 22 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4be5…c1b3backed Yes18c1,469$261 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$260.55728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick38cpaid-52.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbea5…489ebacked Yes10c1,452$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.45333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick27cpaid-41%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x02d7…0c39backed Yes12c1,337$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.09837.5%3 W · 5 L+1.4wins+0.17per pick20cpaid+97.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcd5a…9042backed Yes15c1,292$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-43.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xac6e…7de2backed Yes19c1,285$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.8610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0761…d1d6backed Yes14c1,256$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.2910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f5e…ddaabacked Yes9c1,200$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10820%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes8c1,162$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.2390%0 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x19e1…bf77backed Yes14c1,136$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick27cpaid-19.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes14c1,125$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.643414.7%5 W · 29 L-1.8wins-0.05per pick20cpaid-53.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe97b…b2eabacked Yes13c1,104$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.98757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.6wins+0.23per pick34cpaid+37.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x495f…06b0backed Yes13c1,104$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.61333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-39.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d89…340cbacked Yes12c1,014$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.741338.5%5 W · 8 L+1.2wins+0.09per pick29cpaid+15.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xda20…1f7ebacked Yes10c1,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-30.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x89b5…ab4cbacked Yes7c879.51$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.495223.1%12 W · 40 L-2.6wins-0.05per pick28cpaid-57.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2add…9b43backed Yes16c837.24$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.8350%0 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0b2f…c453backed Yes12c831$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.7210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xe0c7…9b88backed Yes12c802.82$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x6a6d…3c85backed Yes13c772.78$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100560%3 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+16.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3c15…45a0backed Yes16c744.7$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.181127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick32cpaid-55.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3bf…1cf6backed Yes11c722.56$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.04425%1 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick20cpaid-44.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x187b…8848backed Yes14c711.15$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100540%2 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-4.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed Yes8c703.1$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.762445.8%11 W · 13 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-26.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4d0e…219fbacked Yes16c686.62$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.20per pick30cpaid+13.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x390d…350bbacked Yes21c672.53$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.21837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.11per pick26cpaid+34%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd493…7f04backed Yes8c668.26$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.4620%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0230…0f71backed Yes14c656.88$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90450%2 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.16per pick34cpaid-11.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6c1c…5650backed Yes11c654.85$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.7920%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x483b…623bbacked Yes15c654.54$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100520%1 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.11per pick31cpaid-68.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa2a8…c765backed Yes16c625.32$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9dc2…0727backed Yes8c620.66$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.6520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda32…04a1backed Yes17c600$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2c6f…deeebacked Yes16c598$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.8820%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd986…1320backed Yes17c550.48$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.55232.7%17 W · 35 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-36.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x833c…f919backed Yes20c550$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-23.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6df0…7abcbacked Yes18c524.7$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.42333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-12.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2429…06bbbacked Yes9c523$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.07520%1 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-56.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb337…5589backed Yes18c500.14$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.24425%1 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.27per pick52cpaid-51.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6b5f…1d83backed Yes10c500$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes10c499.56$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.1890%0 W · 9 L-0.9wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc123…115cbacked Yes17c484$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.2810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf4ab…c1b6backed Yes13c434.52$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xa67d…c6f9backed Yes15c430$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.88250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-28.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0603…d679backed Yes10c419.55$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.3310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9638…e185backed Yes9c417.7$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.6630%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2faa…dd58backed Yes8c380$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c33…a66bbacked Yes10c370.2$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.97450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-35.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6196…cf56backed Yes11c350$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x721a…9295backed Yes12c347$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.6420%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfe5e…8054backed Yes17c338.56$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1136…705ebacked Yes10c325$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3120%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x309d…4287backed Yes12c321.06$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40560%3 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.16per pick44cpaid+47.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc60e…e94abacked Yes12c320$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xe32e…8c24backed Yes14c309.99$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x610d…bf25backed Yes10c308.19$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x78d9…70f6backed Yes11c301.69$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.2510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e54…c8ccbacked Yes17c300$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$511030%3 W · 7 L-1.7wins-0.17per pick47cpaid-37.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2631…50f3backed Yes12c300$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.4520%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x10d8…9f12backed Yes17c299$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.8310%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x671a…ee5abacked Yes13c293$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.0910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb61…5d64backed Yes10c275$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.5333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid-55.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x16ca…468abacked Yes15c265.42$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.8410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc40a…1f50backed Yes13c258$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.5410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed Yes5c251.23$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.7230%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x983f…fd5ebacked Yes12c250$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$316820.6%14 W · 54 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick23cpaid-60.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3ea0…a4aabacked Yes12c250$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.7510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2944…c5f0backed Yes24c249.25$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.8710%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdf17…97d1backed Yes14c246.44$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.0330%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa96b…1196backed Yes21c239.8$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x81b3…0719backed Yes19c236.72$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick25cpaid-33.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6149…8a58backed Yes9c230$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.544553.3%24 W · 21 L+2.9wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+28.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcf95…7865backed Yes18c229.22$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.32119.1%1 W · 10 L-2.1wins-0.19per pick28cpaid-80.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x76cd…446abacked Yes9c222.22$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe09d…05ccbacked Yes16c221.42$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb5e0…2b19backed Yes11c214.99$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.6510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8164…df78backed Yes12c208.33$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25128.3%1 W · 11 L-1.6wins-0.14per pick22cpaid-88.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Chess and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.