TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Chess · resolved market

Will Magnus Carlsen win the 2025–2026 Speed Chess Championship?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Chessevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$145,384
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$158,666

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $145,384 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 299 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Chess is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Chess
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x62cf…5826backed Yes72c34,132$24,742 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,390.941844.4%8 W · 10 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-27.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0113…6f26backed Yes69c4,161$2,855 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,306.093435.3%12 W · 22 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9329…9d3ebacked Yes71c3,576$2,541 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,034.451040%4 W · 6 L+1.0wins+0.10per pick30cpaid+15.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xad89…f6e1backed Yes66c3,494$2,317 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,176.99560%3 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-14.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a7d…0bf1backed Yes73c2,524$1,836 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$687.9333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-54.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x07b4…45b9backed No28c2,181$608 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$608.530%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No30c2,097$628 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$627.65750.9%29 W · 28 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-4.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1d7c…51b6backed No32c2,078$667 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$666.9540%0 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7626…d258backed Yes76c1,939$1,469 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$469.04616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick27cpaid-78%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1dc7…302dbacked No20c1,685$338 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$337.651442.9%6 W · 8 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5755…473cbacked Yes75c1,644$1,229 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$415.421100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes62c1,609$1,003 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$605.442853.6%15 W · 13 L+3.5wins+0.12per pick41cpaid+6.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xdfcf…600ebacked No11c1,500$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.9910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe542…0a37backed Yes66c1,468$963 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$505.6540%2 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.11per pick29cpaid-40.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfa01…f0a7backed Yes77c1,358$1,042 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$316.487441.9%31 W · 43 L+2.1wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-11.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x705d…f3a9backed No15c1,253$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.0912313%16 W · 107 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick12cpaid-24%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x984d…3bb2backed Yes65c1,237$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$437.36366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.26per pick41cpaid+85.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9bd1…cfb4backed No26c1,123$292 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29220%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x993b…dedabacked Yes66c1,100$726 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$374333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-49.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x33bc…37dcbacked Yes55c1,100$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$499.994746.8%22 W · 25 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-6.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb9d…e31bbacked Yes67c1,010$681 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$328.681100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+48.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb52c…450cbacked Yes70c1,000$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3001361.5%8 W · 5 L+1.9wins+0.15per pick47cpaid+20.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xadf3…504fbacked No27c990$267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$267.350%0 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xecfc…cd05backed No20c963$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.830%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No32c911.33$293 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$293.172740.7%11 W · 16 L-2.7wins-0.10per pick51cpaid-33.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1409…735ebacked Yes73c883.51$646 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$237.531100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+36.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe4ae…93ecbacked Yes65c869.27$569 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$300.491540%6 W · 9 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick35cpaid-8.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x62cb…e2e0backed No33c857.59$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$280.1730%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x50f7…6333backed Yes72c832.56$595 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$237.121100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+39.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe64e…124ebacked Yes62c763.41$473 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$290.11100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb166…7ba1backed Yes61c734.71$450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$284.94450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.11per pick39cpaid-26.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xda20…1f7ebacked Yes72c724.16$521 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$202.76250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-30.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3c15…45a0backed No19c715.01$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.081127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick32cpaid-55.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbfd0…53b4backed Yes57c712.57$403 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$309.532100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+77.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x93c2…d95fbacked Yes58c711.56$415 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$296.41770.6%12 W · 5 L+2.9wins+0.17per pick54cpaid+46.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf9f6…ee26backed No17c656.72$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11120%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb42…76a5backed No45c650.01$293 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$292.510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ad9…ab26backed No27c629.63$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbde5…1d80backed No18c624$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.3210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb50…7bfcbacked No19c623.37$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.4210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2260…ad28backed Yes62c614.65$379 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$235.35250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid-19%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x89b5…6ff8backed Yes66c602.64$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$202.64366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.23per pick44cpaid+15.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x495f…06b0backed Yes55c599.99$333 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$267333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-39.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6149…8a58backed No18c576.96$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.864553.3%24 W · 21 L+2.9wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+28.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2cfe…e4debacked No22c525$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.530%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x24a5…b3bbbacked No10c520.83$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.39911.1%1 W · 8 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick9cpaid-7.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd362…9bc4backed No15c502.83$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.81333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-19.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc1cf…9656backed No47c500$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2351030%3 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-43.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x60eb…1df1backed No25c500$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd17c…b09cbacked Yes56c491.82$277 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$214.821040%4 W · 6 L-1.5wins-0.15per pick55cpaid-40%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5567…aeedbacked No39c476.48$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.95425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick37cpaid-64.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No14c452.66$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.031757.4%13 W · 162 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick7cpaid-42.8%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x6fb6…ec60backed No20c445.12$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91767.9%6 W · 70 L-12.3wins-0.16per pick24cpaid-66.8%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed Yes76c445.11$338 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.59366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.24per pick43cpaid+11.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1966…25c0backed No28c424.16$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.212313%3 W · 20 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick18cpaid-8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0781…c4ffbacked No19c407$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.33728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.11per pick40cpaid-45.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xaa42…b9ebbacked No30c405.47$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12030%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x588d…099abacked Yes72c401$287 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.91250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-30.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x300f…d366backed Yes62c400$246 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$154785.7%6 W · 1 L+2.1wins+0.29per pick56cpaid+54.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2c6f…deeebacked No18c400$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7120%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa67d…c6f9backed Yes70c393.46$276 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.74250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-28.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No24c383.51$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.6111011.8%13 W · 97 L-4.5wins-0.04per pick16cpaid-60.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No31c377.2$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.03850%4 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-5.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0386…d6c4backed Yes71c368.21$260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.21250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-29.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xe2e9…1947backed Yes72c331.84$239 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.951100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe570…084ebacked No31c329.03$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0b5c…39f6backed Yes62c323.91$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.911100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+62%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x89b5…ab4cbacked Yes65c309.7$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.465223.1%12 W · 40 L-2.6wins-0.05per pick28cpaid-57.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3663…09a6backed No33c303.03$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8164…df78backed Yes73c301.37$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.37128.3%1 W · 11 L-1.6wins-0.14per pick22cpaid-88.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdf1a…c412backed Yes70c300$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$901100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x871e…6566backed Yes71c300$213 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$871100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1c50…73b8backed Yes65c299.99$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.11per pick27cpaid-74.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2fec…871cbacked Yes72c292.21$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.821100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e0b…7421backed No17c287.49$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcdbf…1926backed Yes68c270.79$185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.946713.4%9 W · 58 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick17cpaid-33.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbca2…711dbacked No14c268.41$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed No31c247.68$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.713414.7%5 W · 29 L-1.8wins-0.05per pick20cpaid-53.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x44fa…ddabbacked Yes71c246.56$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.28580%4 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.25per pick55cpaid+26.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2a2b…2030backed No30c240$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.83138.7%12 W · 19 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+26.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x240b…f5efbacked No25c238.84$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.3110%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb04…8b8abacked No17c238.6$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$403010%3 W · 27 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick8cpaid+264.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x483b…623bbacked Yes64c234.38$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.38520%1 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.11per pick31cpaid-68.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc9a4…3926backed Yes73c234$171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.92560%3 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-16.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x4502…2fd8backed Yes66c216.67$143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.671100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x144e…a61cbacked No21c211.54$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0b8b…2183backed No48c209.99$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe335…91adbacked Yes68c205.88$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.881100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb1a0…c18cbacked No15c204.91$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.446555.4%36 W · 29 L+3.9wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+9.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9c33…a66bbacked Yes78c201.75$157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.61450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-35.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x025c…c306backed Yes63c201.17$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.38520%1 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick24cpaid-68.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes61c200.85$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.33757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.09per pick49cpaid-2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7dd0…2b4bbacked Yes54c200$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$921100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3541…b528backed Yes70c200$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$601100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a7a…df1bbacked No5c200$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x83c5…e193backed Yes67c200$133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$671100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+50.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x25b9…3058backed Yes66c200$131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69475%3 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.14per pick61cpaid+24.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x983f…fd5ebacked Yes66c200$131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$696820.6%14 W · 54 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick23cpaid-60.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc3ed…f9c8backed Yes55c200$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$901100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+81.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5415…2a6ebacked Yes61c199.99$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Chess and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.