Chess · resolved market
Will Denis Lazavik win the 2025–2026 Speed Chess Championship?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9782613fd55fa101b2b8b862fd59239a03bb4e2179e8ce8d9a0d9713c52f86a4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Chessevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $180,558
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $145,918
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $180,558 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Chess is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Chess | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa81e…03dcbacked Yes | 3c | 65,795$2,112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,111.55 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x705d…f3a9backed Yes | 3c | 9,915$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.07 | 123 | 13%16 W · 107 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -24%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07b4…45b9backed Yes | 6c | 7,677$433 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$432.51 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 7,663$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.17 | 175 | 7.4%13 W · 162 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1966…25c0backed Yes | 3c | 5,843$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.65 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd97…776cbacked Yes | 4c | 5,668$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f5e…ddaabacked Yes | 3c | 4,000$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d7c…51b6backed Yes | 3c | 3,190$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.7 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0113…6f26backed Yes | 4c | 2,854$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.28 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ff…9a20backed Yes | 4c | 2,841$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.27 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x483b…623bbacked Yes | 4c | 2,480$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 3c | 2,448$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc493…d8fdbacked Yes | 1c | 2,438$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadf3…504fbacked Yes | 4c | 2,373$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.59 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb04…8b8abacked Yes | 3c | 2,282$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 30 | 10%3 W · 27 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | +264.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24a5…b3bbbacked Yes | 3c | 1,554$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.26 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7762…309ebacked Yes | 4c | 1,500$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507a…be1fbacked Yes | 3c | 1,348$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 3c | 1,250$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.26 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…0cc1backed Yes | 1c | 1,182$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.94 | 41 | 22%9 W · 32 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd55…c9bfbacked Yes | 3c | 1,057$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64ad…ca63backed Yes | 3c | 999.98$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed Yes | 3c | 993.19$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.09 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6f8…7fa1backed Yes | 4c | 984.18$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf82a…d221backed Yes | 3c | 914.91$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ad9…ab26backed Yes | 3c | 864.66$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44e4…f624backed Yes | 3c | 833.93$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc2…0727backed Yes | 3c | 800$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x493c…953ebacked Yes | 3c | 606.06$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdce1…44c8backed Yes | 3c | 571.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc5…610ebacked Yes | 3c | 549.97$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.56 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2add…9b43backed Yes | 4c | 533.44$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa14b…b944backed Yes | 2c | 530$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f57…242ebacked Yes | 3c | 513.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +123.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 2c | 500$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6956…d189backed Yes | 3c | 500$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 3c | 495.68$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.34 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8891…2fc7backed Yes | 6c | 433.38$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc89f…0df8backed Yes | 3c | 418$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 4c | 406.87$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes | 4c | 383.06$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x668d…97d2backed Yes | 5c | 371.68$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.95 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +49.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4eb9…9dd7backed Yes | 4c | 370$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 4c | 355.87$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.08 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 4c | 342.85$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.52 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 3c | 336.63$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.18 | 110 | 11.8%13 W · 97 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -60.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f1e…70efbacked Yes | 6c | 335.16$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe15a…9854backed Yes | 4c | 334.17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d0c…e082backed Yes | 3c | 323.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +59.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43b3…6193backed Yes | 4c | 300$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -70.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa62f…68e7backed Yes | 4c | 299.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb856…8fb6backed Yes | 4c | 276.48$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4213…6940backed Yes | 7c | 262.03$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.08 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.18per pick | 15cpaid | +61.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17e6…6fcbbacked Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Chess and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Denis Lazavik win the 2025–2026 Speed Chess Championship?this page
- Will Alireza Firouzja win the 2025–2026 Speed Chess Championship?No won
- Will Fabiano Caruana win the 2025–2026 Speed Chess Championship?No won
- Will Hans Moke Niemann win the 2025–2026 Speed Chess Championship?No won
- Will Hikaru Nakamura win the 2025–2026 Speed Chess Championship?No won
- Will Ian Nepomniachtchi win the 2025–2026 Speed Chess Championship?No won
- Will Magnus Carlsen win the 2025–2026 Speed Chess Championship?Yes won
- Will Wesley So win the 2025–2026 Speed Chess Championship?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.