TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Chess · resolved market

Will Hikaru Nakamura win the 2025–2026 Speed Chess Championship?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Chessevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$100,256
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$88,283

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $100,256 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 124 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Chess is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Chess
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe8c5…7a13backed Yes18c7,701$1,369 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,369.181533.3%5 W · 10 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-27.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x705d…f3a9backed Yes13c6,273$796 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$795.7312313%16 W · 107 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick12cpaid-24%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1966…25c0backed Yes13c5,433$687 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$687.492313%3 W · 20 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick18cpaid-8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x62cf…5826backed Yes14c4,197$601 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$600.631844.4%8 W · 10 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-27.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes1c3,788$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.341757.4%13 W · 162 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick7cpaid-42.8%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x7626…d258backed Yes19c3,451$657 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$657.3616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick27cpaid-78%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7aa5…6292backed Yes16c2,767$455 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$454.892313%3 W · 20 L-1.6wins-0.07per pick20cpaid-66.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcd97…776cbacked Yes16c2,506$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcdf3…1bb5backed Yes16c1,596$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$255.07825%2 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick22cpaid-7.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xac95…df88backed Yes19c1,511$286 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$286.4610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x993b…dedabacked Yes19c1,190$231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231.1333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-49.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2260…ad28backed Yes14c1,130$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.5250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid-19%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x70f3…9580backed Yes18c1,128$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20020%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x62cb…e2e0backed Yes15c1,064$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.2130%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes15c1,033$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.463414.7%5 W · 29 L-1.8wins-0.05per pick20cpaid-53.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed Yes6c917$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.6930%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0b92…6088backed Yes9c879.54$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8320%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2a61…eee5backed Yes16c842.28$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb38f…ee37backed Yes11c826.42$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.8610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x00da…e786backed Yes18c823.95$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x495f…06b0backed Yes16c797.85$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.66333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-39.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4762…dc1bbacked Yes16c769.72$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.16250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-34.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xae2a…179cbacked Yes9c733.33$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6650%0 W · 5 L-1.6wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x07b4…45b9backed Yes18c730$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.6230%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcc5e…3873backed Yes15c689.96$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.4910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe3fe…3f4fbacked Yes17c668.66$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.6910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21b3…1ddfbacked Yes16c625$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001020%2 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick27cpaid-23.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed Yes18c619.95$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.372445.8%11 W · 13 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-26.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9c55…f3cbbacked Yes19c600$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf703…9f55backed Yes19c567.14$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.4610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x608b…fbd6backed Yes18c549.42$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2add…9b43backed Yes20c510.41$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10050%0 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd17c…b09cbacked Yes21c484.27$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.161040%4 W · 6 L-1.5wins-0.15per pick55cpaid-40%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x76cd…446abacked Yes14c463$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.6520%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfcf2…a469backed Yes18c454.94$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.7520%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x483b…623bbacked Yes22c454.55$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100520%1 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.11per pick31cpaid-68.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0386…d6c4backed Yes16c398.04$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-29.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xba0b…3911backed Yes15c375.69$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.2610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x025c…c306backed Yes19c368.12$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.78520%1 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick24cpaid-68.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b71…f840backed Yes16c307.05$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.1320%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xecfc…cd05backed Yes15c303$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.1230%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6956…d189backed Yes15c300$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4520%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb8c1…c739backed Yes17c300$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5110%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd761…c7bfbacked Yes13c300$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.20per pick47cpaid+4.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes8c300$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2590%0 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes16c293$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.8810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4006…57dbbacked Yes17c262.54$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.8250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-33.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d73…65eebacked Yes15c260.14$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.8510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc0b5…7543backed Yes21c256.96$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.520%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x50bb…9aa6backed Yes15c250$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3bef…f04ebacked Yes15c244.48$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.0430%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2fbc…b5c9backed Yes17c234.83$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.09per pick35cpaid-23.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf26b…f3b8backed Yes8c225$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe9c…ae8ebacked Yes18c219.59$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb99…eaf1backed Yes14c213.33$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0edd…3db1backed Yes15c200$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid-5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5415…2a6ebacked Yes21c199.99$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2646…d4c2backed Yes10c199.98$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1c50…73b8backed Yes15c198.58$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.79616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.11per pick27cpaid-74.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x77d2…8cb8backed Yes9c190.99$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.83650%3 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.18per pick32cpaid+12.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8f93…bffabacked Yes16c190$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.710%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaf78…5b41backed Yes6c190$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.640%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x668d…97d2backed Yes15c189.63$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.44650%3 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.21per pick29cpaid+49.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x90ec…62aabacked Yes12c188$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.5610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes11c186.8$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.0990%0 W · 9 L-0.9wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1d7c…51b6backed Yes18c183.02$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.9440%0 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5d15…e663backed Yes17c168$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.5610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcd91…4a1ebacked Yes18c167.73$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.56933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-32.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x64d2…3d8ebacked Yes14c163.33$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.320%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1136…705ebacked Yes16c156.25$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2520%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xab2b…c514backed Yes16c156.25$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd50…c17bbacked Yes15c155.07$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.711323.1%3 W · 10 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-40.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x43b3…6193backed Yes16c150$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24520%1 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.17per pick37cpaid-70.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xefde…783dbacked Yes17c150$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.57735.1%27 W · 50 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-29.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc83e…4f88backed Yes16c150$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.14per pick36cpaid-9.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2823…631fbacked Yes15c150$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x74e6…4f6cbacked Yes8c147.83$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfcb2…71a2backed Yes19c141.26$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.8410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4eb9…9dd7backed Yes15c135.5$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.9825%2 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-58.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6da0…cc9cbacked Yes17c135.29$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2310%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9556…c837backed Yes18c134.78$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.9610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3bf…1cf6backed Yes16c130.79$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.31425%1 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick20cpaid-44.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6e31…a728backed Yes19c130.01$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25475%3 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.38per pick37cpaid+104.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe15a…9854backed Yes15c129.88$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb53…c50bbacked Yes16c125$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa42…b9ebbacked Yes16c125$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd470…c278backed Yes15c120$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x195d…1297backed Yes17c117.65$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8891…2fc7backed Yes17c117.65$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20850%4 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9638…e185backed Yes9c116.67$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1130%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5166…c6ffbacked Yes17c114.4$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7f42…2122backed Yes19c112.37$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.35250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-28.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2631…50f3backed Yes21c111.88$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.4920%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x29de…57f2backed Yes21c110$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.6250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid-9.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x44fa…ddabbacked Yes18c109.65$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20580%4 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.25per pick55cpaid+26.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7878…7975backed Yes16c106.25$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1710%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3e38…300ebacked Yes23c105.43$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.6910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1a29…16c5backed Yes19c104.14$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.13per pick37cpaid-9.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7167…0ee2backed Yes17c101.94$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1730%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed Yes18c100$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-22.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Chess and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.