Premier League · resolved market
Newcastle vs. Fulham: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3bc4163d6e91d9d05570a228c8be1ceb9186e02b689dfa4f0aa68199099e11c0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $47,498
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $58,539
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $47,498 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2129…4222backed Under | 49c | 20,872$10,145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,144.66 | 357 | 58%207 W · 150 L | +12.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f13…e0fdbacked Over | 52c | 14,184$7,376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,808.45 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d0f…a318backed Over | 51c | 10,054$5,128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,926.69 | 110 | 29.1%32 W · 78 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde91…f20abacked Under | 47c | 4,000$1,875 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,874.99 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +2.9wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 54c | 3,663$1,961 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,701.85 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x699f…d5c6backed Over | 55c | 2,050$1,121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$928.83 | 202 | 46.5%94 W · 108 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Under | 48c | 1,468$705 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$704.64 | 245 | 66.1%162 W · 83 L | +24.5wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Under | 45c | 1,444$650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$649.97 | 218 | 53.2%116 W · 102 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 48c | 1,190$572 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$571.71 | 492 | 54.9%270 W · 222 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed Under | 46c | 999.98$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$459.99 | 107 | 51.4%55 W · 52 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 49c | 975.17$478 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$477.6 | 370 | 36.2%134 W · 236 L | -18.1wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc30…c8a5backed Under | 47c | 907.3$426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$426.43 | 74 | 36.5%27 W · 47 L | -4.7wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4103…9b9ebacked Over | 51c | 801.71$409 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$392.84 | 92 | 42.4%39 W · 53 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69a7…ef6bbacked Under | 47c | 695$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.65 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.15per pick | 46cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed Under | 48c | 555$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.4 | 215 | 48.8%105 W · 110 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffab…a290backed Over | 54c | 370.37$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.37 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb891…969bbacked Over | 53c | 332.99$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.51 | 293 | 43.7%128 W · 165 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Under | 46c | 300$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138 | 218 | 39.4%86 W · 132 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35a6…ab4dbacked Over | 51c | 294$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.06 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3357…42fabacked Over | 50c | 250$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8889…a9d1backed Over | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.39 | 153 | 47.7%73 W · 80 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ee7…12c5backed Under | 54c | 200$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +4.0wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Over | 44c | 190.97$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.07 | 1,224 | 40%490 W · 734 L | -24.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce2b…08fabacked Under | 41c | 190$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.9 | 300 | 50.7%152 W · 148 L | -16.5wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x79cc…8026backed Over | 51c | 150$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.5 | 127 | 53.5%68 W · 59 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x495f…06b0backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35e8…0596backed Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +2.9wins | +0.21per pick | 51cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed Under | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 414 | 37.9%157 W · 257 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8b2…c24ebacked Over | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.04 | 192 | 59.4%114 W · 78 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd538…317cbacked Over | 51c | 97.33$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.33 | 221 | 25.8%57 W · 164 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1d…6a8bbacked Over | 53c | 94.45$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.39 | 99 | 58.6%58 W · 41 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b3…8a5ebacked Over | 54c | 91.85$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.25 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10ff…5088backed Under | 50c | 89.82$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.46 | 271 | 41.7%113 W · 158 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef41…2473backed Over | 54c | 79.37$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.51 | 90 | 37.8%34 W · 56 L | -6.2wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e9e…c4efbacked Under | 48c | 74.92$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.96 | 86 | 31.4%27 W · 59 L | -4.9wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc431…53ffbacked Under | 52c | 50.12$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d89…340cbacked Under | 47c | 47.55$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.35 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +2.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb4e…5ff1backed Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.5wins | -0.32per pick | 44cpaid | -75%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7e7e…425ebacked Over | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 51 | 45.1%23 W · 28 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dc8…b60ebacked Over | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x958d…3501backed Under | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 428 | 62.4%267 W · 161 L | -11.7wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38b1…af7fbacked Over | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +79.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe8…0fedbacked Over | 54c | 24.18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.03 | 255 | 45.5%116 W · 139 L | -18.1wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc8c3…f46ebacked Under | 52c | 23.13$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 18 | 77.8%14 W · 4 L | +2.9wins | +0.16per pick | 62cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8393…253cbacked Over | 72c | 20.44$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.72 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8153…c439backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x808b…48c8backed Under | 51c | 19.65$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 27 | 70.4%19 W · 8 L | +3.8wins | +0.14per pick | 56cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Newcastle vs. Fulham: O/U 2.5this page
- Newcastle vs. Fulham: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Spread: Newcastle (-1.5)Fulham won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.