MLB · resolved market
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x718416d0ac92e975443e7c2ac7a7957700d8b1d55180d0ee781a199a6d2850cc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,837
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,577
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,837 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf800…f62dbacked Over | 56c | 5,346$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,345.54 | 63 | 57.1%36 W · 27 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…5b15backed Under | 44c | 2,957$1,301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,301.28 | 342 | 45%154 W · 188 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Under | 44c | 903.98$398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$397.75 | 1,151 | 49.2%566 W · 585 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81f5…70afbacked Under | 45c | 890$401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.5 | 169 | 45%76 W · 93 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Under | 45c | 888.89$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 652 | 48.3%315 W · 337 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 42c | 701.28$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.54 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d03…369abacked Under | 44c | 600$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264 | 68 | 33.8%23 W · 45 L | -9.0wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xedae…584fbacked Under | 43c | 600$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2619…9f4ebacked Under | 44c | 600$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264 | 70 | 41.4%29 W · 41 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xce6d…28b5backed Over | 55c | 300$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135 | 1,483 | 50.2%745 W · 738 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb36…9545backed Under | 44c | 300$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 106 | 46.2%49 W · 57 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Under | 61c | 215.44$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.39 | 784 | 45.3%355 W · 429 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…7017backed Under | 42c | 200$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 197 | 47.2%93 W · 104 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf6…513abacked Under | 44c | 199.54$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.3 | 94 | 50%47 W · 47 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked Under | 43c | 103.63$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.29 | 1,530 | 50.5%772 W · 758 L | +20.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Over | 31c | 100$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69 | 519 | 53.2%276 W · 243 L | -24.2wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Over | 25c | 74.4$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.8 | 141 | 53.9%76 W · 65 L | +8.5wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d89…340cbacked Over | 56c | 71.43$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.43 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 54cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5937…cc97backed Over | 58c | 68.97$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.97 | 41 | 73.2%30 W · 11 L | +7.2wins | +0.17per pick | 56cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x83ce…1778backed Under | 66c | 60.61$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc02…958abacked Over | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.82 | 59 | 35.6%21 W · 38 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -33%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Under | 44c | 46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.24 | 1,137 | 46.3%526 W · 611 L | +36.1wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d0…cd83backed Under | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -4.7wins | -0.39per pick | 55cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked Under | 69c | 27.93$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.27 | 1,328 | 51.4%682 W · 646 L | +25.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3a…d5b0backed Over | 56c | 26.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.79 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd307…f2b5backed Under | 60c | 25.9$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.54 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.14per pick | 58cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0cf3…2b57backed Over | 49c | 24.49$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.49 | 63 | 41.3%26 W · 37 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93db…e431backed Over | 56c | 20.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.02 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6065…6d3ebacked Over | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 7.5this page
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Yankees vs. Blue JaysBlue Jays won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.