MLB · resolved market
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x128fc2a7a9eb52430ff48a9f0fc5d082acd5ba3146ccba6803715c70c6931e3c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Toronto Blue Jaysof Toronto Blue Jays, New York Yankees
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,760
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,637
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,760 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3672…edbdbacked New York Yankees | 53c | 9,999$5,289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,289.27 | 91 | 46.2%42 W · 49 L | -11.7wins | -0.13per pick | 59cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xeb1e…88d5backed New York Yankees | 67c | 4,450$2,997 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,997 | 70 | 58.6%41 W · 29 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 32c | 2,944$942 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,002.22 | 1,530 | 50.5%772 W · 758 L | +20.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 39c | 2,275$887 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,387.91 | 1,328 | 51.4%682 W · 646 L | +25.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Toronto Blue Jays | 53c | 1,996$1,065 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$930.95 | 141 | 53.9%76 W · 65 L | +8.5wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb852…bfaebacked Toronto Blue Jays | 34c | 1,000$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$660.13 | 240 | 40.8%98 W · 142 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 33c | 616.19$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$412.85 | 1,151 | 49.2%566 W · 585 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Toronto Blue Jays | 48c | 405$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.28 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe965…6559backed Toronto Blue Jays | 58c | 345.24$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.24 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb36…9545backed Toronto Blue Jays | 34c | 300$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198 | 106 | 46.2%49 W · 57 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Toronto Blue Jays | 39c | 210.76$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.56 | 115 | 44.3%51 W · 64 L | -6.5wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed New York Yankees | 20c | 209.39$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.88 | 784 | 45.3%355 W · 429 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf6…513abacked Toronto Blue Jays | 34c | 203.03$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134 | 94 | 50%47 W · 47 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4328…5322backed New York Yankees | 67c | 113.16$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.82 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.1wins | -0.30per pick | 59cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6065…6d3ebacked Toronto Blue Jays | 48c | 110.56$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.01 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4562…aa66backed New York Yankees | 67c | 61.19$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Toronto Blue Jays | 33c | 61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.87 | 1,137 | 46.3%526 W · 611 L | +36.1wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d0…cd83backed New York Yankees | 66c | 53.03$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -4.7wins | -0.39per pick | 55cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)this page
- New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 7.5Over won
- Yankees vs. Blue JaysBlue Jays won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.