Premier League · resolved market
Will Manchester United vs. Brighton end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5846db288826e528aea2b9c1d8acecffa807b79fd49d9031d1ed2e75594872f9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $367,623
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $367,371
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $367,623 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Yes | 1c | 276,219$2,762 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,762.19 | 796 | 50.8%404 W · 392 L | +28.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cda…6e17backed No | 74c | 31,586$23,374 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,212.49 | 94 | 50%47 W · 47 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6ee…697bbacked Yes | 26c | 30,108$7,792 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,792 | 60 | 46.7%28 W · 32 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x083c…3f02backed No | 76c | 12,632$9,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,031.68 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f33…341dbacked Yes | 24c | 12,500$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe68a…5e25backed Yes | 1c | 8,999$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.99 | 100 | 44%44 W · 56 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe15e…3718backed Yes | 24c | 7,500$1,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,800 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb91…b665backed No | 76c | 7,369$5,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,768.56 | 56 | 41.1%23 W · 33 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3643…27c0backed Yes | 26c | 4,481$1,165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,165.03 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57cd…a0fbbacked No | 75c | 3,269$2,452 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$817.27 | 104 | 55.8%58 W · 46 L | +7.6wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf2c9…5d53backed Yes | 25c | 2,100$525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$525 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd538…317cbacked Yes | 22c | 2,045$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 221 | 25.8%57 W · 164 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Yes | 25c | 1,985$496 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$496.26 | 316 | 55.1%174 W · 142 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…534ebacked No | 76c | 1,316$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315.79 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -2.8wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Yes | 16c | 1,154$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.88 | 515 | 42.5%219 W · 296 L | -9.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 75c | 1,144$857 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.25 | 357 | 58%207 W · 150 L | +12.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaef9…72b5backed No | 76c | 1,100$836 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +138.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c77…12babacked No | 75c | 1,000$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd80…7b95backed No | 76c | 1,000$760 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 78cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11c5…f12dbacked Yes | 25c | 1,000$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb9…f6b3backed Yes | 20c | 697$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.22 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +19%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…ad85backed Yes | 26c | 577.85$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 187 | 40.6%76 W · 111 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d89…340cbacked Yes | 23c | 537.43$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.61 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +2.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaf96…d06ebacked Yes | 26c | 511.54$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 41cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…6124backed Yes | 25c | 401$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.25 | 200 | 39.5%79 W · 121 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf133…928dbacked Yes | 26c | 384.62$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 74 | 51.4%38 W · 36 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe42e…8d89backed No | 76c | 369$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.56 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a86…5664backed Yes | 26c | 307.69$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 246 | 30.5%75 W · 171 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2e…2358backed Yes | 25c | 300$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 74 | 47.3%35 W · 39 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Yes | 26c | 269$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.94 | 272 | 35.7%97 W · 175 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked Yes | 26c | 253.04$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.79 | 291 | 58.4%170 W · 121 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b35…a749backed Yes | 26c | 248.65$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.65 | 126 | 23%29 W · 97 L | -11.6wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe7cb…76fcbacked Yes | 11c | 230.58$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc759…b0d2backed Yes | 7c | 223.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | -4.2wins | -0.13per pick | 40cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6e24…cea8backed Yes | 25c | 200$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3864…857fbacked Yes | 26c | 192.31$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b70…6e9fbacked Yes | 26c | 192.31$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 19cpaid | +316.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63aa…c5c8backed Yes | 29c | 172.41$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked No | 74c | 160.58$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.75 | 104 | 55.8%58 W · 46 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed No | 75c | 160$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 1,224 | 40%490 W · 734 L | -24.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9775…8746backed Yes | 26c | 154.04$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 52 | 26.9%14 W · 38 L | -5.1wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4667…cab0backed Yes | 23c | 130.43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0da5…5adfbacked Yes | 26c | 115.38$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 291 | 46%134 W · 157 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d7…8b82backed Yes | 24c | 110$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +55%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7cba…c616backed No | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 93 | 59.1%55 W · 38 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4417…01eebacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 111 | 42.3%47 W · 64 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55fb…4ec4backed Yes | 24c | 99.98$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +2.8wins | +0.13per pick | 29cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x865f…e88ebacked Yes | 24c | 99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.76 | 689 | 42.2%291 W · 398 L | +13.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5020…215fbacked Yes | 26c | 96.73$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72ff…2713backed Yes | 26c | 96.15$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -23%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac95…5f12backed No | 76c | 92.11$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.11 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfdb…7a75backed Yes | 26c | 77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 93 | 57%53 W · 40 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c97…874abacked Yes | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 107 | 33.6%36 W · 71 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3486…49eebacked Yes | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 422 | 40.3%170 W · 252 L | -8.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c71…48edbacked Yes | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed No | 74c | 60.58$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.75 | 189 | 58.7%111 W · 78 L | +12.6wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x480e…3e38backed Yes | 26c | 57.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +7.1wins | +0.17per pick | 38cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd1e6…618dbacked Yes | 22c | 55.41$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.19 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa87b…968bbacked Yes | 29c | 51.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 92 | 31.5%29 W · 63 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5350…c52cbacked Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.21per pick | 32cpaid | -78.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc995…25c2backed Yes | 25c | 40.08$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa50f…f999backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 70 | 41.4%29 W · 41 L | -6.2wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x567b…27d7backed No | 77c | 32.04$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.37 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed No | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 577 | 44.4%256 W · 321 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10dc…6407backed No | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b06…b091backed No | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 38 | 60.5%23 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3993…cdedbacked No | 75c | 23.33$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.83 | 150 | 49.3%74 W · 76 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 815 | 59%481 W · 334 L | +32.5wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Manchester United vs. Brighton end in a draw?this page
- Will Brighton win on 2025-10-25?No won
- Will Manchester United win on 2025-10-25?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.