TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Bundesliga · resolved market

Will Bayern München win on 2025-10-04?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$808,390
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$813,322

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $808,390 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 277 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9f13…e0fdbacked Yes72c339,082$242,784 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96,298.58785.7%6 W · 1 L+1.9wins+0.27per pick59cpaid+55.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3cda…6e17backed No28c302,557$85,693 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85,693.3130%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9cb9…32f2backed No28c89,014$24,924 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24,923.923429.4%10 W · 24 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick29cpaid+19.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xe895…c3dabacked No28c60,200$16,856 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,85640%0 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc58d…9373backed No29c33,333$9,667 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,666.57540%2 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-37.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2f09…4632backed Yes73c25,813$18,742 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,070.65771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick65cpaid+9.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd267…9dc6backed No28c24,706$6,918 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,917.663333.3%11 W · 22 L+2.1wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+15.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb230…4193backed Yes71c20,000$14,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,800.015954.2%32 W · 27 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+7.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xea64…f2a2backed Yes72c16,409$11,893 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,516.864055%22 W · 18 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick58cpaid+1.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed No22c15,565$3,378 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,377.653,28442.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L-74.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdf2e…ddecbacked Yes70c14,989$10,426 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,562.949053.3%48 W · 42 L-3.6wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-15.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xad94…85b1backed No30c14,800$4,392 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,3922222.7%5 W · 17 L-2.7wins-0.12per pick35cpaid-37.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x7865…4af9backed No30c11,768$3,570 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,569.974524.4%11 W · 34 L-3.5wins-0.08per pick32cpaid-5.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc996…bb65backed Yes72c10,944$7,880 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,064.395347.2%25 W · 28 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-16.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9e5c…d8e6backed No27c10,722$2,875 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,874.8123745.6%108 W · 129 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-13%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2699…29f6backed No29c8,799$2,516 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,515.733050%15 W · 15 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-15.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9eb2…c8bfbacked Yes73c6,981$5,096 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,884.961100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7412…0ccbbacked Yes73c6,537$4,742 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,795.21060%6 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xad6a…9dbdbacked No28c6,429$1,807 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,807.442218.2%4 W · 18 L-1.6wins-0.07per pick26cpaid-1.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf142…57e7backed No28c6,030$1,704 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,703.9723046.5%107 W · 123 L-6.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf661…d170backed No30c6,000$1,780 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,779.9940%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4dbe…af34backed Yes72c5,000$3,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,4002100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+55.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed No12c4,274$513 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$512.715143.1%22 W · 29 L0.0wins0.00per pick43cpaid-24.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3a2a…4945backed Yes73c4,129$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,128.92560%3 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick50cpaid-15.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd532…f70dbacked Yes73c4,110$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,109.592100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+34.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2129…4222backed No24c4,061$976 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$976.3319153.9%103 W · 88 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b86…0669backed No28c4,015$1,124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,124.2333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick47cpaid-51%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x224b…f6b8backed Yes69c3,916$2,702 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,213.87560%3 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.18per pick42cpaid+73.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x571c…c16abacked Yes73c3,723$2,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,022.791681.3%13 W · 3 L+2.8wins+0.17per pick64cpaid+27.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb1fe…9974backed No30c3,333$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0008637.2%32 W · 54 L-4.0wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-18.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x50dd…c186backed No28c3,215$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$900.3520%1 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick20cpaid-57.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9ca1…3378backed No30c2,929$879 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$878.5510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd24f…849ebacked Yes73c2,738$1,999 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$739.364100%4 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+55.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5532…c6dbbacked No27c2,661$725 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$724.9230%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x68c3…99c4backed Yes70c2,571$1,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$771.431100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Yes70c2,479$1,746 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$732.2914157.4%81 W · 60 L+8.4wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+13.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0bcc…8f80backed Yes73c2,467$1,801 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$666.18366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick63cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x439b…2c9abacked Yes70c2,411$1,687 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$723.2771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick66cpaid-5.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x98a7…d3fdbacked Yes72c2,384$1,716 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$667.43366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.19per pick48cpaid+47.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc864…97dfbacked No28c2,327$652 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$651.641936.8%7 W · 12 L+1.7wins+0.09per pick28cpaid+18.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb8c4…7385backed No28c2,200$616 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61615742%66 W · 91 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+0.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2be4…01adbacked No16c2,151$342 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$342.05333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick46cpaid-33.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed No28c2,028$559 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$558.8916850%84 W · 84 L-0.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid+3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa815…a3c3backed Yes72c2,000$1,440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5602100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8fe7…4f20backed No32c2,000$635 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$634.7812651.6%65 W · 61 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-10.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x33bc…37dcbacked No27c2,000$540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5405151%26 W · 25 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb786…b18dbacked No12c1,922$231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$230.6614846.6%69 W · 79 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked No17c1,785$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.652,53839.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L-8.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd16a…7691backed No28c1,732$485 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x74dc…cc04backed Yes71c1,669$1,185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$484.044671.7%33 W · 13 L+3.7wins+0.08per pick64cpaid+14.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x330b…69f1backed No31c1,613$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5004042.5%17 W · 23 L-4.6wins-0.11per pick54cpaid-31%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3a32…6d7ebacked No27c1,500$405 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$405633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-21.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x06c1…19c5backed Yes70c1,442$1,010 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$432.691100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x883f…aad2backed Yes71c1,408$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$408.45450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf515…0805backed Yes71c1,408$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$408.451973.7%14 W · 5 L+3.0wins+0.16per pick58cpaid+31.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4f45…0d98backed Yes73c1,370$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$369.861100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd8b…63b2backed Yes73c1,368$999 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$369.433770.3%26 W · 11 L+2.1wins+0.06per pick65cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x90ba…63f3backed No30c1,359$408 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$407.567111.3%8 W · 63 L-5.6wins-0.08per pick19cpaid-31.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3c87…70d5backed Yes70c1,263$884 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$378.782240.9%9 W · 13 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-12.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3389…62d9backed Yes71c1,250$890 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$360580%4 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.20per pick60cpaid+11.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9e49…63f2backed No28c1,143$321 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$321.3115024%36 W · 114 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick26cpaid+8.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd8b3…fd19backed Yes70c1,081$757 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$324.31100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2c1a…42d8backed No28c1,024$283 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$282.635928.8%17 W · 42 L-0.1wins0.00per pick29cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8b21…41fabacked Yes71c1,000$710 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2902040%8 W · 12 L-1.5wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-23.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x778c…dbedbacked Yes70c1,000$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$300250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-28.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8406…0176backed Yes71c902.33$641 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$261.683100%3 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+34.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x332a…33babacked No31c888$275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$275.28825%2 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.15per pick40cpaid-47.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0c58…b4e0backed Yes70c877.28$612 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$265.37580%4 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick73cpaid+9.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6834…c8d3backed No31c869$269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$269.39633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-54.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2d06…d48ebacked Yes71c810.93$576 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$235.17825%2 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-50.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x66f3…2252backed No35c789.95$276 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$276.4810%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe3d4…2bacbacked Yes73c782.15$571 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$211.184772.3%34 W · 13 L+5.5wins+0.12per pick61cpaid+24.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xad46…65a7backed Yes69c724.81$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$224.661553.3%8 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-20.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c85…77c6backed Yes71c700$497 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2038459.5%50 W · 34 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+3.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf641…7b6fbacked Yes74c697.74$515 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183.222669%156 W · 70 L+13.1wins+0.06per pick63cpaid+25.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf920…4d4ebacked Yes73c684.93$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.93650%3 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-8.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5740…c1a6backed No16c684.6$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10830%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1677…1126backed No28c667$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186.5214254.2%77 W · 65 L+7.6wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+7.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2619…9f4ebacked No30c608.95$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.93243.8%14 W · 18 L-2.0wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-24.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x79cc…8026backed Yes73c556.72$406 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.366350.8%32 W · 31 L-6.1wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-18.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd3c5…f4c5backed Yes73c547.95$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.951100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbb5a…f4c1backed No29c522.96$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.18757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.17per pick40cpaid+53.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x736f…d0c5backed Yes73c520.55$380 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.55475%3 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick75cpaid+1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xce2b…08fabacked No29c517.24$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15038055.8%212 W · 168 L-0.9wins0.00per pick56cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0e0c…b90abacked Yes69c499.98$345 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1555149%25 W · 26 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xedae…584fbacked No27c435.16$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.4930%0 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6b59…6445backed Yes71c425.34$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.341681.3%13 W · 3 L+2.5wins+0.15per pick66cpaid+21%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x90e0…ff4cbacked No4c399.98$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166010%6 W · 54 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick7cpaid+119.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8816…7082backed Yes71c361.44$257 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.825347.2%25 W · 28 L-3.2wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-11.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x71c1…e358backed Yes71c352.11$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.1118840.4%76 W · 112 L+7.9wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+10.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x735a…3ef2backed Yes71c351.19$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.193655.6%20 W · 16 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x865f…e88ebacked Yes70c351.01$246 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.9134342%144 W · 199 L-0.4wins0.00per pick42cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb27b…5d6bbacked No4c349.99$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1420%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8c46…be29backed Yes73c349.32$255 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.32683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.7wins+0.29per pick54cpaid+67.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5d03…369abacked No30c307.91$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.182365.2%15 W · 8 L+2.7wins+0.12per pick54cpaid+17.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8485…c13ebacked Yes69c306$211 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.86560%3 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+20.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d01…0ab1backed No28c300$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8411036.4%40 W · 70 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x227c…ee3fbacked Yes73c300$219 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.6wins+0.26per pick57cpaid+48.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3710…2b8dbacked Yes69c300$207 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$933100%3 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+49.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9738backed Yes72c299$215 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.721450%7 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-24%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.