Bundesliga · resolved market
Will Eintracht Frankfurt win on 2025-10-04?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xea46ef037ff0b1f7fac983ebaafe8ad2c31d1928a9d6ba176f5eba025cffaae6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $88,949
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $100,811
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $88,949 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Yes | 11c | 15,000$1,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,699.95 | 166 | 52.4%87 W · 79 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2699…29f6backed Yes | 11c | 11,256$1,192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,192.08 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf661…d170backed Yes | 4c | 6,233$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.53 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Yes | 13c | 3,049$396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$396.4 | 71 | 11.3%8 W · 63 L | -5.6wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd267…9dc6backed Yes | 12c | 2,484$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.08 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Yes | 11c | 2,203$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.89 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf142…57e7backed Yes | 10c | 2,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 230 | 46.5%107 W · 123 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked Yes | 13c | 1,925$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.27 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea64…f2a2backed Yes | 1c | 1,536$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.05 | 40 | 55%22 W · 18 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Yes | 11c | 1,000$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3389…62d9backed Yes | 14c | 1,000$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 60cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe797…2b36backed Yes | 11c | 1,000$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.5 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.23per pick | 45cpaid | -66.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5532…c6dbbacked Yes | 12c | 995.42$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.45 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…625dbacked Yes | 12c | 888$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.34 | 66 | 39.4%26 W · 40 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Yes | 4c | 780$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 223 | 32.3%72 W · 151 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 14c | 714$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.96 | 193 | 47.2%91 W · 102 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2619…9f4ebacked Yes | 11c | 600.82$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.76 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d03…369abacked Yes | 11c | 600$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +2.7wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9e49…63f2backed Yes | 14c | 598.88$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.84 | 150 | 24%36 W · 114 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Yes | 12c | 598.16$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.53 | 101 | 28.7%29 W · 72 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5adf…a5e7backed Yes | 13c | 549.98$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.5 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf2c…b6ebbacked Yes | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40f…a5b1backed Yes | 12c | 398.17$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.78 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 18cpaid | +87%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x695a…d3d6backed Yes | 12c | 375$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 28 | 67.9%19 W · 9 L | +5.5wins | +0.20per pick | 48cpaid | +40.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x056a…611fbacked Yes | 15c | 341.38$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 24cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7272…7135backed Yes | 15c | 333.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d67…81f2backed Yes | 15c | 333.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 19cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab7e…9e98backed Yes | 14c | 300$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb36…9545backed Yes | 11c | 300$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed61…9aa3backed Yes | 12c | 277.73$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.13 | 150 | 64%96 W · 54 L | +25.0wins | +0.17per pick | 47cpaid | +53.3%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xcef7…e7d7backed Yes | 19c | 200$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 40 | 62.5%25 W · 15 L | +7.2wins | +0.18per pick | 44cpaid | +98.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5543…4195backed Yes | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d97…fbd8backed Yes | 13c | 174.98$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 23 | 8.7%2 W · 21 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5949…89dabacked Yes | 14c | 150$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23de…05c1backed Yes | 14c | 142.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4114…b9acbacked Yes | 12c | 141.4$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.97 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a16…496fbacked Yes | 17c | 132.65$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.55 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48e3…c148backed Yes | 12c | 127.06$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -65.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2272…2e9cbacked Yes | 13c | 103$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.39 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cd0…f582backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25a1…f2fdbacked Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -18%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb758…dd73backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 97 | 21.6%21 W · 76 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 43 | 27.9%12 W · 31 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc71e…f450backed Yes | 12c | 95$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -4.1wins | -0.21per pick | 43cpaid | -68.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Yes | 13c | 77$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 243 | 22.2%54 W · 189 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Eintracht Frankfurt win on 2025-10-04?this page
- Will Bayern München win on 2025-10-04?Yes won
- Will Eintracht Frankfurt vs. Bayern München end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.