TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs FaZe (BO3) - IEM Krakow Group B

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
3DMAXof 3DMAX, FaZe
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$328,103
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$355,791

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $328,103 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 308 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa5ea…d96abacked 3DMAX62c74,562$46,484 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28,077.6442440.3%171 W · 253 L-12.5wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5877…d894backed FaZe63c64,309$40,515 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40,514.617943%34 W · 45 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x21ec…5348backed 3DMAX37c27,300$10,174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,12672453.7%389 W · 335 L+11.9wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6adc…bebabacked FaZe37c27,251$10,083 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,08313633.1%45 W · 91 L-5.6wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-17.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa2c6…43febacked FaZe36c17,795$6,403 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,403.3610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7a29…ac48backed FaZe0c11,000$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1120%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked 3DMAX37c10,000$3,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,30023145.9%106 W · 125 L-7.8wins-0.03per pick49cpaid+0.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x29df…8ebcbacked 3DMAX37c8,708$3,222 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,486.041758.8%10 W · 7 L+2.0wins+0.12per pick47cpaid+21.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x098b…1fa5backed 3DMAX37c8,500$3,145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,354.9912441.1%51 W · 73 L-4.0wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-12.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc257…358ebacked 3DMAX40c7,964$3,186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,778.4439249%192 W · 200 L+0.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf801…901cbacked 3DMAX37c7,886$2,918 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,968.062250%11 W · 11 L+1.9wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+20%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9adf…55e8backed FaZe63c7,788$4,906 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,906.2128453.5%152 W · 132 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked FaZe47c6,920$3,229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,229.53,25750.3%1,638 W · 1,619 L+98.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd537…0f7cbacked FaZe60c6,652$3,991 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,991.3633457.8%193 W · 141 L-7.8wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-5.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdc85…3532backed 3DMAX47c6,174$2,930 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,243.532548%12 W · 13 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-11.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcd87…ac38backed 3DMAX49c6,173$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,173.2710047%47 W · 53 L+5.0wins+0.05per pick42cpaid-5.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xef26…05babacked 3DMAX50c5,028$2,527 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,500.859839.6%237 W · 361 L-15.9wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-9.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x44c5…8d45backed FaZe36c5,000$1,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,80019455.2%107 W · 87 L+8.9wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+5.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc68d…2fe8backed FaZe62c5,000$3,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,099.995129.4%15 W · 36 L-8.2wins-0.16per pick46cpaid-45.1%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x6ade…f5b0backed FaZe52c5,000$2,590 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,589.866147.5%29 W · 32 L-3.3wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-8.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2560…0b02backed FaZe62c4,897$3,051 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,051.0822448.7%109 W · 115 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-9.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7645…3117backed 3DMAX37c4,841$1,791 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,049.7671645.9%329 W · 387 L-3.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked FaZe49c4,290$2,091 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,091.42,32655.7%1,296 W · 1,030 L+44.8wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-9.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc192…086cbacked FaZe48c3,990$1,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,90027530.9%85 W · 190 L-18.6wins-0.07per pick38cpaid-20.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x661d…4dc6backed FaZe35c3,750$1,317 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,316.9861837.9%234 W · 384 L-22.5wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-25.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9c82…1f13backed 3DMAX37c3,731$1,371 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,360.411758.1%68 W · 49 L+6.3wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+13.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2218…9467backed 3DMAX69c3,665$2,529 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,136.511656.3%9 W · 7 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick51cpaid-0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked FaZe30c3,443$1,027 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,027.4832930.4%100 W · 229 L-21.9wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-50.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb7f5…c669backed FaZe62c3,406$2,112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,111.6167041.8%280 W · 390 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2d73…044bbacked FaZe35c3,400$1,185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,184.6615441.6%64 W · 90 L-3.8wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-16.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa558…1b44backed 3DMAX38c3,308$1,257 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,051.026432.8%21 W · 43 L-3.9wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-13.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbec7…5977backed FaZe62c3,200$1,984 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,98457647.6%274 W · 302 L-25.7wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-12%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5475…c3dcbacked FaZe62c3,142$1,953 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,953.32560%3 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+14.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked 3DMAX39c3,141$1,239 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,902.311,61145.4%731 W · 880 L+30.0wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-14.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed 3DMAX50c3,077$1,524 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,552.592,06641.5%858 W · 1,208 L-49.5wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-16.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb04b…e2d4backed 3DMAX38c2,664$1,012 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,651.9312752%66 W · 61 L+9.2wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+14.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0659…d74dbacked FaZe32c2,650$841 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$841.598052.4%514 W · 466 L+26.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8056…b64dbacked 3DMAX42c2,529$1,064 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,464.321,62344.9%728 W · 895 L+4.4wins0.00per pick45cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf971…0a57backed 3DMAX42c2,417$1,009 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,407.9217230.8%53 W · 119 L-9.7wins-0.06per pick36cpaid-32.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x21ca…3748backed 3DMAX71c2,273$1,603 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$669.6512450%62 W · 62 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-15.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd50c…76c3backed FaZe52c2,202$1,142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,141.9811361.1%69 W · 44 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick59cpaid-0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaf9f…f6a3backed 3DMAX39c2,179$850 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,329.4929851.3%153 W · 145 L+6.7wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2ef5…39edbacked FaZe31c1,976$622 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$622.0311631.9%37 W · 79 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-12.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x15ae…6ccdbacked FaZe62c1,963$1,208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,207.941145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb8c2…55c3backed 3DMAX38c1,878$709 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,168.827642.1%32 W · 44 L-3.9wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-10.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5e6e…be00backed FaZe60c1,863$1,118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,117.5441649.8%207 W · 209 L+19.5wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7a78…add7backed FaZe41c1,826$743 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$742.651,96946.7%919 W · 1,050 L+12.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-14.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe283…7190backed 3DMAX37c1,757$650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,106.7696545.7%441 W · 524 L+10.9wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f99…c209backed FaZe60c1,601$955 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$954.86253.2%33 W · 29 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick58cpaid-4.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xebee…b373backed 3DMAX40c1,587$634 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$953.732927.6%8 W · 21 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-27.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb123…f594backed FaZe62c1,530$949 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$948.6666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick65cpaid-2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5aa4…16e3backed FaZe34c1,460$496 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$496.476546.7%357 W · 408 L-13.2wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe6f0…5701backed FaZe39c1,460$568 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$567.546827.9%19 W · 49 L-5.7wins-0.08per pick36cpaid-33%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xad72…4f5ebacked 3DMAX43c1,396$599 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$796.8324538.4%94 W · 151 L-5.0wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked FaZe33c1,346$438 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$437.781,04044%458 W · 582 L-22.2wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-22.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe42b…7ea9backed 3DMAX37c1,250$463 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$787.550833.5%170 W · 338 L+14.2wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+2.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed 3DMAX37c1,245$461 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$784.3516250%81 W · 81 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb963…3fa0backed 3DMAX37c1,200$444 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75650043%215 W · 285 L-10.9wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-4.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xed2c…9597backed FaZe61c1,192$727 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$727.3112150.4%61 W · 60 L+5.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-0.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked FaZe52c1,192$615 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$615.267,92550.4%3,997 W · 3,928 L+179.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5a3c…38d3backed 3DMAX37c1,172$434 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$738.6524233.9%82 W · 160 L0.0wins0.00per pick34cpaid-13.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbf5e…4e1abacked FaZe63c1,166$735 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$734.5412038.3%46 W · 74 L-8.1wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x0d84…3c31backed FaZe43c1,164$502 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501.995062%31 W · 19 L+4.4wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+7.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xcd43…88d7backed FaZe36c1,111$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40014532.4%47 W · 98 L-4.0wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf4ee…c2c8backed FaZe62c1,107$686 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$686.34520%1 W · 4 L-1.6wins-0.31per pick51cpaid-70.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x213f…1da2backed 3DMAX39c1,100$429 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67110244.1%45 W · 57 L+0.4wins0.00per pick44cpaid-3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5019…74cdbacked FaZe37c1,081$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40011630.2%35 W · 81 L-0.1wins0.00per pick30cpaid-6.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x17cd…7423backed FaZe62c1,076$666 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$665.7346243.3%200 W · 262 L+1.9wins0.00per pick43cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x72aa…90e0backed FaZe39c1,075$419 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$418.514,22849.2%2,080 W · 2,148 L+59.9wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x14a0…22bbbacked 3DMAX62c1,054$655 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$399.091,39365.9%918 W · 475 L+26.8wins+0.02per pick64cpaid+1.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc699…7961backed FaZe10c1,026$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1004621.7%10 W · 36 L-5.0wins-0.11per pick33cpaid-47.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa4f3…c888backed FaZe62c1,023$634 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$634.26366.7%2 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick66cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked 3DMAX53c1,020$536 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$484.132,22141.3%917 W · 1,304 L-22.6wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-19.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd589…27c2backed 3DMAX37c1,003$371 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$631.848751.7%45 W · 42 L+3.8wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+9.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed 3DMAX37c1,000$370 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6301,25942.5%535 W · 724 L+20.6wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc8ad…be4ebacked FaZe33c999.99$335 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33525651.2%131 W · 125 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-4.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xa5cf…8cc5backed 3DMAX38c999.96$380 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$619.9724139%94 W · 147 L-7.4wins-0.03per pick42cpaid+3.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked FaZe34c963$326 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$325.982,77637.4%1,038 W · 1,738 L-140.2wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-20.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb8b0…2aaebacked 3DMAX52c950.09$491 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$459.065451.9%28 W · 26 L-0.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid+5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4aae…6224backed FaZe57c936.46$538 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$538633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-2.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd6ae…c89abacked 3DMAX49c903.15$438 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$464.952161.9%13 W · 8 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick61cpaid-2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2a1d…8afcbacked FaZe62c866.99$538 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$537.53714.3%1 W · 6 L-2.8wins-0.40per pick54cpaid-79.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x4cb9…3783backed 3DMAX38c799.96$305 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$494.9825941.3%107 W · 152 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf7c6…1c37backed 3DMAX38c789.47$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$489.4711937.8%45 W · 74 L-6.6wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-21.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xde53…e5bebacked FaZe62c782$481 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$480.951,26246.9%592 W · 670 L-34.1wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-5.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x913a…edc8backed FaZe62c774.99$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$480.5714.3%1 W · 6 L-2.2wins-0.32per pick46cpaid-65.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc954…642fbacked FaZe62c770$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$479.9826553.2%141 W · 124 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21c2…6749backed FaZe40c749$302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301.5446344.5%206 W · 257 L-14.8wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-20.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8f0b…eb6dbacked FaZe34c734$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.5616343.6%71 W · 92 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-13.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x28c7…4f69backed FaZe62c729$452 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$451.98633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.7wins-0.28per pick61cpaid-34.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe96a…b2dbbacked FaZe62c723.98$448 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$447.98540%2 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick46cpaid+5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x293f…3e52backed 3DMAX37c720$268 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$452.31154.5%6 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick58cpaid+3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaea0…0decbacked FaZe41c714$295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$294.5348948.7%238 W · 251 L-0.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid-12.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a39…9e71backed FaZe62c699$433 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$433.381145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick48cpaid+19.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6e12…20e9backed 3DMAX37c691.89$256 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$435.8910947.7%52 W · 57 L+4.5wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+10.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa090…9854backed 3DMAX65c664.43$431 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$233.437238.9%28 W · 44 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-7.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8679…cd4fbacked FaZe62c651.26$404 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$403.781323.1%3 W · 10 L-1.8wins-0.14per pick37cpaid-53.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xfe8a…23cebacked 3DMAX60c640.35$386 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$254.362,21447.5%1,052 W · 1,162 L-5.6wins0.00per pick48cpaid-14.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed 3DMAX67c621.72$419 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$203.1669863%440 W · 258 L+65.3wins+0.09per pick54cpaid+5.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xfc8f…3782backed FaZe35c595.38$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207.6329128.5%83 W · 208 L-30.2wins-0.10per pick39cpaid-38.7%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.