Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will FC Porto vs. Crvena Zvezda end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x56a3d8cdce4e6840214c3b333fc00ed3f2a00fc8d7be257a7b8e5ba9074d1273
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $58,492
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $58,352
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $58,492 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x967d…ef6abacked Yes | 56c | 17,898$10,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,000 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.19per pick | 64cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked No | 44c | 16,002$7,041 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,961.33 | 330 | 55.2%182 W · 148 L | +21.0wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 25c | 14,169$3,599 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,599.28 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb9…32f2backed No | 78c | 8,550$6,669 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,881 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked No | 79c | 5,417$4,280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,137.43 | 122 | 69.7%85 W · 37 L | +14.5wins | +0.12per pick | 58cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2699…29f6backed Yes | 22c | 4,956$1,090 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,090.25 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37aa…c860backed Yes | 22c | 4,605$1,013 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,013 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea64…f2a2backed No | 78c | 3,404$2,655 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$748.9 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…5b15backed No | 79c | 3,000$2,370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$630 | 57 | 63.2%36 W · 21 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea8…1fbfbacked No | 48c | 2,864$1,384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,479.49 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | +3.6wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 44c | 2,462$1,092 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,369.67 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed No | 63c | 1,654$1,043 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$611.66 | 122 | 47.5%58 W · 64 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd724…b805backed No | 44c | 1,600$704 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$896.12 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.5wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x24e1…9708backed Yes | 21c | 1,550$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16cb…2704backed No | 78c | 1,500$1,170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330 | 104 | 52.9%55 W · 49 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c53…3c12backed Yes | 73c | 1,370$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Yes | 32c | 775$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248 | 87 | 55.2%48 W · 39 L | +7.3wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcef7…e7d7backed Yes | 24c | 655$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.2 | 83 | 45.8%38 W · 45 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2619…9f4ebacked No | 78c | 600$468 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132 | 49 | 59.2%29 W · 20 L | +5.6wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xad28…770cbacked Yes | 69c | 525.54$364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$363.75 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -4.9wins | -0.19per pick | 50cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked No | 77c | 499.99$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115 | 162 | 42.6%69 W · 93 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb5a…f4c1backed Yes | 22c | 480$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.6 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked No | 78c | 470.1$369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.59 | 151 | 51%77 W · 74 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac43…4925backed Yes | 23c | 434.78$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 85 | 43.5%37 W · 48 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe8…0fedbacked No | 51c | 363.54$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.05 | 200 | 42%84 W · 116 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d03…369abacked No | 78c | 300$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +3.2wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x11d7…52e1backed No | 52c | 272.73$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.92 | 32 | 65.6%21 W · 11 L | +2.8wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec75…2e8fbacked No | 45c | 249.2$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.06 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf69…aa05backed Yes | 51c | 235.69$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xce2b…08fabacked Yes | 38c | 231.84$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 107 | 57%61 W · 46 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c3f…ff4bbacked Yes | 24c | 220$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x158f…2bb3backed Yes | 21c | 200$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d3d…bdddbacked No | 79c | 200$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Yes | 47c | 148.25$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.68 | 245 | 57.6%141 W · 104 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc81…0ababacked Yes | 21c | 119.05$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 75 | 21.3%16 W · 59 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf6…513abacked No | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 52 | 53.8%28 W · 24 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3372…1914backed Yes | 21c | 95.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdcab…4821backed Yes | 68c | 83.81$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1987…01d9backed No | 79c | 80$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6957…3d11backed Yes | 21c | 80$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d24…a93fbacked No | 72c | 70$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 118 | 69.5%82 W · 36 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf89d…63a2backed Yes | 35c | 59.6$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.59 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.36per pick | 61cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x138f…ccb0backed Yes | 49c | 57.49$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.17 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +18%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 379 | 26.1%99 W · 280 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7308…2b0abacked No | 80c | 39.14$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.83 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 77cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6981…8ac5backed Yes | 73c | 34.26$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.01 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dff…bc36backed No | 78c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.25per pick | 47cpaid | -70.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6c08…5c69backed No | 78c | 23.34$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.13 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -4.3wins | -0.20per pick | 54cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x56e6…45e9backed No | 80c | 20.58$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.12 | 70 | 51.4%36 W · 34 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d45…4f92backed Yes | 56c | 18.57$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d89…340cbacked Yes | 73c | 17.26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FC Porto vs. Crvena Zvezda end in a draw?this page
- Will Crvena Zvezda win on 2025-10-02?No won
- Will FC Porto win on 2025-10-02?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.