World Politics · resolved market
Will Sanae Takaichi be the Prime Minister of Japan as a result of the 2026 snap election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x01f06ea4973476841e60b3b8d7df8ce339095a065c7466c7945f40da51b38788
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,165,662
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,490,285
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,165,662 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 169 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x05f5…24cbbacked No | 2c | 145,318$2,620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,619.86 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5138…4fe5backed No | 6c | 90,564$5,410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,409.76 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0719…e007backed No | 1c | 71,893$917 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$917 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd9…6c15backed No | 2c | 52,953$1,032 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,031.7 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 16cpaid | -76.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked No | 0c | 42,000$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 444 | 0.7%3 W · 441 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -87.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00ee…1128backed No | 0c | 35,500$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfe3…73c4backed No | 5c | 32,000$1,462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,461.99 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed No | 2c | 30,127$501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$501.21 | 688 | 3.6%25 W · 663 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8efb…c73ebacked No | 2c | 22,700$496 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$495.65 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3a6…fd55backed No | 1c | 20,000$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 101 | 27.7%28 W · 73 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe032…410ebacked No | 5c | 19,667$953 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$953.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9db…7984backed No | 0c | 17,038$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x360f…8fdfbacked No | 1c | 15,970$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.79 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 2c | 14,015$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.41 | 234 | 4.3%10 W · 224 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5275…7ddabacked No | 0c | 13,306$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.31 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +3.5wins | +0.35per pick | 45cpaid | +90.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked No | 1c | 12,651$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.05 | 94 | 18.1%17 W · 77 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0846…a401backed No | 2c | 12,416$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bfc…98e0backed No | 0c | 12,380$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f71…9c46backed No | 7c | 12,210$808 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$807.62 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.19per pick | 29cpaid | -74.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7650…fac1backed No | 2c | 12,102$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b34…ffc3backed No | 1c | 11,547$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.52 | 64 | 18.8%12 W · 52 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ab…25dbbacked No | 3c | 10,636$344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$343.73 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked No | 1c | 10,626$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.6 | 134 | 4.5%6 W · 128 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1f7…9a99backed No | 2c | 8,550$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfabf…3d26backed No | 7c | 8,130$546 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$546.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8329…5488backed No | 2c | 7,906$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked No | 1c | 7,500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 166 | 16.9%28 W · 138 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | +111.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x162f…798dbacked No | 0c | 7,000$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.15per pick | 36cpaid | -69.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d7…9b6ebacked No | 0c | 7,000$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.18per pick | 10cpaid | +221%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed No | 3c | 6,342$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.18 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x657a…8563backed No | 1c | 6,030$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e4…471abacked No | 1c | 5,879$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.08 | 150 | 22.7%34 W · 116 L | +8.6wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +43%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfea2…581ebacked No | 2c | 5,709$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.67 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 13cpaid | -85.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95f0…b4d4backed No | 1c | 5,522$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14bc…aa14backed No | 2c | 5,406$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.94 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5081…a309backed No | 4c | 4,989$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.98 | 80 | 6.3%5 W · 75 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3de2…441dbacked No | 6c | 4,986$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.29per pick | 21cpaid | +60.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…887dbacked No | 4c | 4,815$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.13 | 80 | 3.8%3 W · 77 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed No | 4c | 4,767$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.39 | 115 | 2.6%3 W · 112 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -47%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc5…610ebacked No | 5c | 4,631$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.88 | 57 | 28.1%16 W · 41 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +90.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed No | 4c | 4,625$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.89 | 211 | 7.1%15 W · 196 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf19…2866backed No | 1c | 4,559$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed No | 6c | 4,491$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.31 | 170 | 37.6%64 W · 106 L | +5.2wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30d1…4525backed No | 6c | 4,321$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.62 | 55 | 38.2%21 W · 34 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x98a7…df9ebacked No | 1c | 4,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -2.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2fe5…f921backed No | 1c | 4,000$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8372…6d56backed No | 6c | 3,886$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.65 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe54b…9f08backed No | 2c | 3,868$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb3b…a2b6backed No | 1c | 3,543$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.59 | 38 | 0%0 W · 38 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed No | 5c | 3,448$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.78 | 220 | 29.5%65 W · 155 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed No | 6c | 3,439$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.96 | 284 | 34.2%97 W · 187 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked No | 4c | 3,400$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.3 | 254 | 3.5%9 W · 245 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x926e…f075backed No | 6c | 3,309$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.93 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x227c…ee3fbacked No | 4c | 3,295$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f00…b433backed No | 1c | 3,102$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.02 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.25per pick | 8cpaid | +57.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc77b…a526backed No | 7c | 3,008$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.69 | 76 | 38.2%29 W · 47 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cfe…e4debacked No | 2c | 2,991$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.97 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 25cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe947…7a45backed No | 1c | 2,967$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.5 | 170 | 44.1%75 W · 95 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd362…9bc4backed No | 2c | 2,926$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.43 | 67 | 40.3%27 W · 40 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2375…691fbacked No | 2c | 2,779$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.9 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | +5.9wins | +0.12per pick | 40cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x86e1…62c8backed No | 6c | 2,738$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed No | 1c | 2,555$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.1 | 139 | 18%25 W · 114 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d24…7ecabacked No | 1c | 2,308$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e66…41e7backed No | 1c | 2,269$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.02 | 35 | 0%0 W · 35 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x407f…d62abacked No | 6c | 2,150$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.67 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 56cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e69…ba48backed No | 1c | 2,132$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.09 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4013…4d70backed No | 5c | 2,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.16per pick | 31cpaid | -79.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b6a…fcd1backed No | 6c | 2,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed No | 3c | 1,987$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.93 | 476 | 6.5%31 W · 445 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffa…2db2backed No | 7c | 1,881$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.87 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x793c…e8dabacked No | 2c | 1,876$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.3 | 61 | 39.3%24 W · 37 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x057a…72bebacked No | 6c | 1,800$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cd…816cbacked No | 6c | 1,783$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109 | 186 | 28.5%53 W · 133 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb3…0795backed No | 6c | 1,773$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.38 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked No | 6c | 1,741$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.89 | 77 | 2.6%2 W · 75 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -64.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b01…95a9backed No | 1c | 1,706$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.67 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x269b…bae4backed No | 6c | 1,677$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f85…8693backed No | 1c | 1,651$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.11 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.22per pick | 16cpaid | +145.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…5e2abacked No | 3c | 1,649$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.7 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -77.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bdb…a90dbacked No | 7c | 1,599$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.96 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 9cpaid | +138.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe85c…ed6bbacked No | 1c | 1,539$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.98 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -92%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 8c | 1,500$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 457 | 23.2%106 W · 351 L | -15.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3832…35e1backed No | 2c | 1,474$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 63 | 22.2%14 W · 49 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +84.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0523…e38bbacked No | 3c | 1,463$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.74 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked No | 7c | 1,458$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 77 | 42.9%33 W · 44 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 5c | 1,429$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.36 | 322 | 55%177 W · 145 L | +14.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b37…0ff0backed No | 7c | 1,429$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdce0…da3cbacked No | 3c | 1,383$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked No | 1c | 1,350$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 179 | 21.2%38 W · 141 L | +10.6wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +56.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9176…512cbacked No | 1c | 1,277$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.88 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd733…0ddebacked No | 6c | 1,243$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.04 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbba8…f383backed No | 1c | 1,214$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.76 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 13cpaid | -89.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a1d…8a73backed No | 7c | 1,167$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.77 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 2c | 1,147$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.21 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac4…4f44backed No | 2c | 1,094$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.16 | 53 | 7.5%4 W · 49 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 3cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee40…ede2backed No | 4c | 1,079$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.77 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked No | 6c | 1,043$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.58 | 371 | 17.8%66 W · 305 L | -18.9wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4cf9…d0c6backed No | 1c | 1,025$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd15…7cc5backed No | 1c | 1,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.86 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed No | 5c | 1,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 73 | 53.4%39 W · 34 L | +10.5wins | +0.14per pick | 39cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Sanae Takaichi be the Prime Minister of Japan as a result of the 2026 snap election?this page
- Will Fumitake Fujita be the Prime Minister of Japan as a result of the 2026 snap election?No won
- Will Hirofumi Yoshimura be the Prime Minister of Japan as a result of the 2026 snap election?No won
- Will Shinjirō Koizumi be the Prime Minister of Japan as a result of the 2026 snap election?No won
- Will Takayuki Kobayashi be the Prime Minister of Japan as a result of the 2026 snap election?No won
- Will Taro Kono be the Prime Minister of Japan as a result of the 2026 snap election?No won
- Will Tetsuo Saito be the Prime Minister of Japan as a result of the 2026 snap election?No won
- Will Toshimitsu Motegi be the Prime Minister of Japan as a result of the 2026 snap election?No won
- Will Yoshihiko Noda be the Prime Minister of Japan as a result of the 2026 snap election?No won
- Will Yoshimasa Hayashi be the Prime Minister of Japan as a result of the 2026 snap election?No won
- Will Yōko Kamikawa be the Prime Minister of Japan as a result of the 2026 snap election?No won
- Will Yūichirō Tamaki be the Prime Minister of Japan as a result of the 2026 snap election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.