TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will Sanae Takaichi be the Prime Minister of Japan as a result of the 2026 snap election?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,165,662
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,490,285

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,165,662 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 169 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x05f5…24cbbacked No2c145,318$2,620 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,619.86425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-63.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5138…4fe5backed No6c90,564$5,410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,409.7640%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0719…e007backed No1c71,893$917 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91760%0 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4cd9…6c15backed No2c52,953$1,032 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,031.7147.1%1 W · 13 L-1.3wins-0.09per pick16cpaid-76.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked No0c42,000$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$424440.7%3 W · 441 L-0.7wins0.00per pick1cpaid-87.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x00ee…1128backed No0c35,500$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42170%0 W · 17 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdfe3…73c4backed No5c32,000$1,462 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,461.992552%13 W · 12 L+1.6wins+0.06per pick46cpaid-16.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed No2c30,127$501 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501.216883.6%25 W · 663 L-9.5wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-59.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8efb…c73ebacked No2c22,700$496 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$495.6540%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd3a6…fd55backed No1c20,000$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21010127.7%28 W · 73 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick25cpaid+7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe032…410ebacked No5c19,667$953 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$953.3410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd9db…7984backed No0c17,038$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x360f…8fdfbacked No1c15,970$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.7960%0 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed No2c14,015$271 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$271.412344.3%10 W · 224 L+0.2wins0.00per pick4cpaid-29.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5275…7ddabacked No0c13,306$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.311080%8 W · 2 L+3.5wins+0.35per pick45cpaid+90.8%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x1d0d…9b6ebacked No1c12,651$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.059418.1%17 W · 77 L+4.4wins+0.05per pick13cpaid+40.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0846…a401backed No2c12,416$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.9710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1bfc…98e0backed No0c12,380$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.5620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f71…9c46backed No7c12,210$808 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$807.621010%1 W · 9 L-1.9wins-0.19per pick29cpaid-74.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7650…fac1backed No2c12,102$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0b34…ffc3backed No1c11,547$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.526418.8%12 W · 52 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick17cpaid-23.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb6ab…25dbbacked No3c10,636$344 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$343.73120%0 W · 12 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked No1c10,626$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.61344.5%6 W · 128 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick3cpaid-47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa1f7…9a99backed No2c8,550$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.7520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfabf…3d26backed No7c8,130$546 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$546.4710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8329…5488backed No2c7,906$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.4110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked No1c7,500$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10016616.9%28 W · 138 L+7.6wins+0.05per pick12cpaid+111.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x162f…798dbacked No0c7,000$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141421.4%3 W · 11 L-2.0wins-0.15per pick36cpaid-69.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe1d7…9b6ebacked No0c7,000$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14728.6%2 W · 5 L+1.3wins+0.18per pick10cpaid+221%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x391d…def1backed No3c6,342$219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.183525.7%9 W · 26 L+2.4wins+0.07per pick19cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x657a…8563backed No1c6,030$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.3710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf5e4…471abacked No1c5,879$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.0815022.7%34 W · 116 L+8.6wins+0.06per pick17cpaid+43%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfea2…581ebacked No2c5,709$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.67205%1 W · 19 L-1.6wins-0.08per pick13cpaid-85.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x95f0…b4d4backed No1c5,522$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x14bc…aa14backed No2c5,406$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.9470%0 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5081…a309backed No4c4,989$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185.98806.3%5 W · 75 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick5cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3de2…441dbacked No6c4,986$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300450%2 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.29per pick21cpaid+60.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfbf2…887dbacked No4c4,815$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.13803.8%3 W · 77 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-22.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe061…93f9backed No4c4,767$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.391152.6%3 W · 112 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-47%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5fc5…610ebacked No5c4,631$242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241.885728.1%16 W · 41 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick25cpaid+90.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed No4c4,625$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.892117.1%15 W · 196 L+4.2wins+0.02per pick5cpaid+13.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdf19…2866backed No1c4,559$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed No6c4,491$269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$269.3117037.6%64 W · 106 L+5.2wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-11.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x30d1…4525backed No6c4,321$276 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$275.625538.2%21 W · 34 L+3.2wins+0.06per pick32cpaid+11.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x98a7…df9ebacked No1c4,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20160%0 W · 16 L-2.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2fe5…f921backed No1c4,000$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8372…6d56backed No6c3,886$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$227.6570%0 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe54b…9f08backed No2c3,868$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.3910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb3b…a2b6backed No1c3,543$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.59380%0 W · 38 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc71b…e265backed No5c3,448$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.7822029.5%65 W · 155 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick28cpaid+7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6291…cc47backed No6c3,439$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212.9628434.2%97 W · 187 L+5.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-8.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked No4c3,400$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.32543.5%9 W · 245 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-50.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x926e…f075backed No6c3,309$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.93742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.09per pick34cpaid-38.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x227c…ee3fbacked No4c3,295$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.5210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f00…b433backed No1c3,102$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.02333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.25per pick8cpaid+57.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc77b…a526backed No7c3,008$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206.697638.2%29 W · 47 L-0.3wins0.00per pick39cpaid+6.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2cfe…e4debacked No2c2,991$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.971315.4%2 W · 11 L-1.3wins-0.10per pick25cpaid-66.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe947…7a45backed No1c2,967$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.517044.1%75 W · 95 L-6.3wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-7.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd362…9bc4backed No2c2,926$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.436740.3%27 W · 40 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-37.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2375…691fbacked No2c2,779$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.95052%26 W · 24 L+5.9wins+0.12per pick40cpaid+18.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x86e1…62c8backed No6c2,738$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.25333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.12per pick21cpaid-37.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d84…1344backed No1c2,555$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.113918%25 W · 114 L-4.9wins-0.03per pick21cpaid-28.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3d24…7ecabacked No1c2,308$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e66…41e7backed No1c2,269$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.02350%0 W · 35 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x407f…d62abacked No6c2,150$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.67580%4 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.24per pick56cpaid+19.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0e69…ba48backed No1c2,132$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.0920%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4013…4d70backed No5c2,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001315.4%2 W · 11 L-2.1wins-0.16per pick31cpaid-79.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0b6a…fcd1backed No6c2,000$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1fc9…ace5backed No3c1,987$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.934766.5%31 W · 445 L-8.9wins-0.02per pick8cpaid-19.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffa…2db2backed No7c1,881$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.87540%2 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-40.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x793c…e8dabacked No2c1,876$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.36139.3%24 W · 37 L-3.8wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-40.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x057a…72bebacked No6c1,800$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick51cpaid-9.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc3cd…816cbacked No6c1,783$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10918628.5%53 W · 133 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick26cpaid-17.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6bb3…0795backed No6c1,773$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.3840%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6814…4d2dbacked No6c1,741$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.89772.6%2 W · 75 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-64.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4b01…95a9backed No1c1,706$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.67180%0 W · 18 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x269b…bae4backed No6c1,677$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.6310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7f85…8693backed No1c1,651$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.11837.5%3 W · 5 L+1.8wins+0.22per pick16cpaid+145.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x21ff…5e2abacked No3c1,649$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.7714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick23cpaid-77.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9bdb…a90dbacked No7c1,599$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.96616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick9cpaid+138.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe85c…ed6bbacked No1c1,539$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.98195.3%1 W · 18 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick7cpaid-92%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed No8c1,500$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11545723.2%106 W · 351 L-15.8wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-35%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3832…35e1backed No2c1,474$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$256322.2%14 W · 49 L-2.5wins-0.04per pick26cpaid+84.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0523…e38bbacked No3c1,463$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.744037.5%15 W · 25 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick34cpaid-4.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf3ac…f23dbacked No7c1,458$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1007742.9%33 W · 44 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-14.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No5c1,429$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.3632255%177 W · 145 L+14.3wins+0.04per pick51cpaid-5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1b37…0ff0backed No7c1,429$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-32.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdce0…da3cbacked No3c1,383$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a7a…df1bbacked No1c1,350$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.517921.2%38 W · 141 L+10.6wins+0.06per pick15cpaid+56.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9176…512cbacked No1c1,277$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.8820%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd733…0ddebacked No6c1,243$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.0420%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbba8…f383backed No1c1,214$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.76156.7%1 W · 14 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick13cpaid-89.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2a1d…8a73backed No7c1,167$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.772917.2%5 W · 24 L-0.1wins0.00per pick17cpaid-19.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No2c1,147$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.211,43110.1%145 W · 1,286 L-4.9wins0.00per pick10cpaid-12.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ac4…4f44backed No2c1,094$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.16537.5%4 W · 49 L+2.2wins+0.04per pick3cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xee40…ede2backed No4c1,079$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.7720%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b44…63fbbacked No6c1,043$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.5837117.8%66 W · 305 L-18.9wins-0.05per pick23cpaid-32.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4cf9…d0c6backed No1c1,025$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.88560%3 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick54cpaid-9.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd15…7cc5backed No1c1,000$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.8650%0 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4e5c…d892backed No5c1,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$507353.4%39 W · 34 L+10.5wins+0.14per pick39cpaid+18.2%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.