TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will Yūichirō Tamaki be the Prime Minister of Japan as a result of the 2026 snap election?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$248,929
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$98,711

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $248,929 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1b21…a5c9backed Yes0c36,000$36 inLost-$3640%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b98…23eabacked Yes0c36,000$36 inLost-$3640%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes0c34,310$34 inLost-$34.311344.5%6 W · 128 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick3cpaid-47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0719…e007backed Yes0c14,000$28 inLost-$2860%0 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x00ee…1128backed Yes0c14,000$18 inLost-$18170%0 W · 17 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x04e8…a0bfbacked Yes1c10,000$60 inLost-$60812.5%1 W · 7 L+0.7wins+0.09per pick3cpaid+309.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2a1d…8a73backed Yes1c5,000$51 inLost-$50.712917.2%5 W · 24 L-0.1wins0.00per pick17cpaid-19.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes0c4,305$18 inLost-$17.851664.2%7 W · 159 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick2cpaid-3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6291…cc47backed Yes0c3,230$15 inLost-$15.3528434.2%97 W · 187 L+5.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-8.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2d83…e70fbacked Yes1c2,331$20 inLost-$2050%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8372…6d56backed Yes1c1,533$20 inLost-$2070%0 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f71…9c46backed Yes1c1,503$11 inLost-$10.931010%1 W · 9 L-1.9wins-0.19per pick29cpaid-74.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf1c2…89abbacked Yes1c1,386$12 inLost-$12.231010%1 W · 9 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick3cpaid+25%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x391d…def1backed Yes1c1,096$14 inLost-$13.953525.7%9 W · 26 L+2.4wins+0.07per pick19cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.