World Politics · resolved market
Will Yoshihiko Noda be the Prime Minister of Japan as a result of the 2026 snap election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x32a7343ac084ecf65b646a27fe4c01822495efab2e26d09a07f9c30fca2c8481
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $809,652
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $148,957
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $809,652 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee5c…ec8fbacked Yes | 0c | 82,886$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.89 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ace…e19fbacked Yes | 0c | 70,216$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.22 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc314…2041backed Yes | 0c | 70,170$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.17 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa474…2618backed Yes | 0c | 66,584$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfca2…3eb8backed Yes | 0c | 59,356$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.36 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc512…6d3dbacked Yes | 0c | 57,540$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.54 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ed7…4ac9backed Yes | 0c | 53,949$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.95 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbed…45bdbacked Yes | 0c | 48,466$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.47 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecca…a829backed Yes | 0c | 48,425$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.43 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8620…e29cbacked Yes | 0c | 44,870$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb2…1eb1backed Yes | 1c | 23,065$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1f7…9a99backed Yes | 1c | 19,296$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x280b…a12ebacked Yes | 2c | 16,034$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ab…25dbbacked Yes | 1c | 11,102$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.38 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 0c | 5,867$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.58 | 166 | 4.2%7 W · 159 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00ee…1128backed Yes | 0c | 5,500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 1c | 3,540$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 234 | 4.3%10 W · 224 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 1c | 3,314$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.05 | 688 | 3.6%25 W · 663 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b6f…e5b9backed Yes | 3c | 3,293$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.71 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b01…95a9backed Yes | 0c | 3,258$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.02 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e66…41e7backed Yes | 0c | 2,816$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.07 | 35 | 0%0 W · 35 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b34…ffc3backed Yes | 1c | 2,712$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.93 | 64 | 18.8%12 W · 52 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 2,092$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.65 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Yes | 2c | 2,035$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.59 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,423$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.89 | 80 | 3.8%3 W · 77 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5081…a309backed Yes | 1c | 1,350$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.61 | 80 | 6.3%5 W · 75 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd756…a65abacked Yes | 1c | 1,279$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 2c | 1,139$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.31 | 115 | 2.6%3 W · 112 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -47%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 2c | 1,054$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.12 | 476 | 6.5%31 W · 445 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 1c | 1,038$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.59 | 254 | 3.5%9 W · 245 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f71…9c46backed Yes | 2c | 1,028$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.19per pick | 29cpaid | -74.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 1c | 1,015$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 211 | 7.1%15 W · 196 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb528…cbe1backed Yes | 4c | 835.9$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8372…6d56backed Yes | 2c | 833.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bbe…91d6backed Yes | 2c | 654.59$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 28 | 3.6%1 W · 27 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -95.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed Yes | 2c | 618.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 284 | 34.2%97 W · 187 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes | 2c | 615.31$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.88 | 77 | 2.6%2 W · 75 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -64.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9629…f640backed Yes | 2c | 599.97$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 3c | 582.06$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.17 | 170 | 37.6%64 W · 106 L | +5.2wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6312…f94ebacked Yes | 2c | 579.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b6a…fcd1backed Yes | 3c | 530.02$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.08 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06f8…4ecfbacked Yes | 3c | 514$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.42 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.19per pick | 43cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2643…b917backed Yes | 2c | 499.95$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4104…850cbacked Yes | 3c | 400$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98a6…fc1abacked Yes | 3c | 355.62$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Yoshihiko Noda be the Prime Minister of Japan as a result of the 2026 snap election?this page
- Will Fumitake Fujita be the Prime Minister of Japan as a result of the 2026 snap election?No won
- Will Hirofumi Yoshimura be the Prime Minister of Japan as a result of the 2026 snap election?No won
- Will Sanae Takaichi be the Prime Minister of Japan as a result of the 2026 snap election?Yes won
- Will Shinjirō Koizumi be the Prime Minister of Japan as a result of the 2026 snap election?No won
- Will Takayuki Kobayashi be the Prime Minister of Japan as a result of the 2026 snap election?No won
- Will Taro Kono be the Prime Minister of Japan as a result of the 2026 snap election?No won
- Will Tetsuo Saito be the Prime Minister of Japan as a result of the 2026 snap election?No won
- Will Toshimitsu Motegi be the Prime Minister of Japan as a result of the 2026 snap election?No won
- Will Yoshimasa Hayashi be the Prime Minister of Japan as a result of the 2026 snap election?No won
- Will Yōko Kamikawa be the Prime Minister of Japan as a result of the 2026 snap election?No won
- Will Yūichirō Tamaki be the Prime Minister of Japan as a result of the 2026 snap election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.