TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will Yoshimasa Hayashi be the Prime Minister of Japan as a result of the 2026 snap election?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$552,554
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$66,590

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $552,554 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8ace…e19fbacked Yes0c64,900$65 inLost-$64.930%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x46c9…99a4backed Yes0c56,400$56 inLost-$56.430%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8b94…c334backed Yes0c23,200$23 inLost-$23.240%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf58f…c88bbacked Yes0c23,000$23 inLost-$2360%0 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3239…cb61backed Yes0c22,220$22 inLost-$22.2230%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa462…c03bbacked Yes0c22,110$22 inLost-$22.1140%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f29…f2a4backed Yes0c22,000$22 inLost-$2250%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x445d…a6d6backed Yes0c20,700$21 inLost-$20.730%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x33ea…be1fbacked Yes0c15,220$15 inLost-$15.2250%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd67…fb31backed Yes0c12,000$24 inLost-$24425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-58%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0cc2…d26dbacked Yes0c11,670$12 inLost-$11.6730%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4c3d…23b0backed Yes0c11,520$12 inLost-$11.5260%0 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x019f…1f4dbacked Yes0c11,220$11 inLost-$11.2230%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2871…b108backed Yes0c11,000$11 inLost-$1130%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9285…c19dbacked Yes0c10,310$11 inLost-$10.62550%0 W · 55 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x41fa…c970backed Yes0c10,000$10 inLost-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf6e…461fbacked Yes1c9,863$50 inLost-$50540%2 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.20per pick20cpaid+108.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x00ee…1128backed Yes0c8,500$18 inLost-$18170%0 W · 17 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5acd…c079backed Yes0c5,599$19 inLost-$19.2720%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes0c5,507$18 inLost-$17.741664.2%7 W · 159 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick2cpaid-3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4be5…c1b3backed Yes1c3,000$27 inLost-$277828.2%22 W · 56 L-3.7wins-0.05per pick33cpaid+1.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.