TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will Shinjirō Koizumi be the Prime Minister of Japan as a result of the 2026 snap election?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$200,108
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$145,981

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $200,108 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8c21…adafbacked Yes0c47,150$148 inLost-$148.22540%2 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.30per pick10cpaid+319.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4be5…c1b3backed Yes1c10,204$68 inLost-$68.237828.2%22 W · 56 L-3.7wins-0.05per pick33cpaid+1.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x46ce…eca0backed Yes0c8,614$31 inLost-$3110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4cd9…6c15backed Yes1c8,247$118 inLost-$118.02147.1%1 W · 13 L-1.3wins-0.09per pick16cpaid-76.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes0c6,820$22 inLost-$22.021344.5%6 W · 128 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick3cpaid-47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes0c5,270$14 inLost-$14.161664.2%7 W · 159 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick2cpaid-3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc28c…9c8bbacked Yes1c4,197$34 inLost-$33.5810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5138…4fe5backed Yes3c3,803$115 inLost-$115.540%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes1c3,509$21 inLost-$20.542344.3%10 W · 224 L+0.2wins0.00per pick4cpaid-29.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3de2…441dbacked Yes3c3,473$100 inLost-$100450%2 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.29per pick21cpaid+60.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2e9e…bca9backed Yes1c2,696$20 inLost-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4645…9325backed Yes1c2,534$20 inLost-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d83…e70fbacked Yes2c2,453$50 inLost-$5050%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8372…6d56backed Yes1c2,394$26 inLost-$25.7370%0 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x391d…def1backed Yes1c1,754$22 inLost-$21.773525.7%9 W · 26 L+2.4wins+0.07per pick19cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5081…a309backed Yes1c1,625$19 inLost-$19.06806.3%5 W · 75 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick5cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe061…93f9backed Yes1c1,592$15 inLost-$14.571152.6%3 W · 112 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-47%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes1c1,584$13 inLost-$12.611,43110.1%145 W · 1,286 L-4.9wins0.00per pick10cpaid-12.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes1c1,515$16 inLost-$16.22803.8%3 W · 77 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-22.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes1c1,459$11 inLost-$11.016883.6%25 W · 663 L-9.5wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-59.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes1c1,373$13 inLost-$13.212543.5%9 W · 245 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-50.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes1c1,232$12 inLost-$11.654766.5%31 W · 445 L-8.9wins-0.02per pick8cpaid-19.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6291…cc47backed Yes2c999.99$23 inLost-$2328434.2%97 W · 187 L+5.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-8.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes1c880.04$11 inLost-$10.642117.1%15 W · 196 L+4.2wins+0.02per pick5cpaid+13.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9bbe…91d6backed Yes2c608.8$11 inLost-$10.87283.6%1 W · 27 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-95.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.