Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on July 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8566b01b99e24959c392d94fbbcd79acd782ead381f9ac2223ebd73b2263840e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,108
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,933
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,108 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 116 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 75c | 1,849$1,394 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$455.93 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 3c | 1,793$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.73 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9f7…1494backed Yes | 39c | 1,704$657 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$656.89 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 11c | 1,072$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.17 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9d0…cfb6backed Yes | 1c | 1,065$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.68 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -81.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5f5…5d54backed Yes | 39c | 998.03$388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$388.49 | 283 | 24.7%70 W · 213 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 62c | 998$619 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$378.58 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 61c | 939.56$576 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$363.7 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf0…ff09backed Yes | 38c | 911.32$346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$346.22 | 187 | 31%58 W · 129 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 2c | 909.16$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7c7d…4deabacked Yes | 5c | 859.25$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.54 | 289 | 25.3%73 W · 216 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 26c | 742.42$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.63 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3be7…ad70backed Yes | 3c | 733.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.06 | 134 | 11.9%16 W · 118 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 12c | 707.71$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.75 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 8c | 590$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.35 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4989…983ebacked Yes | 15c | 539.17$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.47 | 336 | 26.8%90 W · 246 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 13c | 505.79$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.81 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x235e…5673backed Yes | 42c | 500.98$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.38 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 11c | 437.87$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.69 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 4c | 425.93$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.52 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…3122backed Yes | 11c | 387.96$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.82 | 474 | 23.6%112 W · 362 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 33c | 343.33$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.66 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0d5…d3a6backed Yes | 4c | 324.53$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -4.2wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked Yes | 15c | 320.45$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.17 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 5c | 313.17$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc1…b9f8backed Yes | 6c | 306.02$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.05 | 349 | 22.9%80 W · 269 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0358…95a4backed Yes | 31c | 300$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.62 | 74 | 41.9%31 W · 43 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7c…f2a3backed Yes | 38c | 255.66$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed Yes | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 474 | 32.5%154 W · 320 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 72c | 248.22$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.5 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked Yes | 47c | 234.45$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.99 | 435 | 59.8%260 W · 175 L | +20.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cae…559abacked No | 65c | 212.56$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.76 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…9319backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 496 | 22.2%110 W · 386 L | +26.1wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 13c | 199$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.72 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e4f…0f0dbacked Yes | 29c | 174.9$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed No | 60c | 172$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.54 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x549c…980bbacked Yes | 7c | 164.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc4…7ae7backed Yes | 39c | 160$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.4 | 236 | 33.5%79 W · 157 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92aa…0341backed Yes | 7c | 158.02$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 79 | 26.6%21 W · 58 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -33%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba63…36dcbacked Yes | 17c | 150$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.4 | 402 | 37.1%149 W · 253 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe037…8a91backed Yes | 14c | 150$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 178 | 41.6%74 W · 104 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 52c | 136.3$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.59 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked Yes | 39c | 123$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.16 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 40c | 120$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.4 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 60c | 115.12$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.12 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e71…afe6backed Yes | 9c | 114.32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 272 | 26.5%72 W · 200 L | +14.6wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 62c | 113.79$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.03 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed No | 62c | 112.9$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.9 | 440 | 58.2%256 W · 184 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b9…1e0ebacked Yes | 14c | 106$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.74 | 96 | 47.9%46 W · 50 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 33c | 101.27$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.16 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked Yes | 41c | 100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 425 | 47.5%202 W · 223 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf05…3d5bbacked Yes | 35c | 99.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 75 | 26.7%20 W · 55 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x702e…4357backed No | 62c | 99.99$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 208 | 32.7%68 W · 140 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked Yes | 36c | 93.37$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.23 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 22c | 90.34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.56 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 65c | 89$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.15 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7e…401ebacked Yes | 15c | 88.44$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 374 | 17.4%65 W · 309 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 33c | 86.92$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.02 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1b…2fffbacked Yes | 16c | 86.14$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.05 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacc6…a78bbacked Yes | 39c | 81.24$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.92 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -3.2wins | -0.15per pick | 39cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaea0…875abacked Yes | 21c | 80$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 63 | 47.6%30 W · 33 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb139…29a1backed Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 50 | 46%23 W · 27 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa97f…c88fbacked Yes | 25c | 79.49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked Yes | 44c | 78.9$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.35 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 65c | 75$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.25 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 62c | 73$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.1 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 18c | 72$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.72 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa087…91f7backed Yes | 36c | 70$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 176 | 35.2%62 W · 114 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 21c | 67.15$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.05 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x8baa…d708backed Yes | 38c | 62.87$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.79 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2b…0dd7backed Yes | 37c | 62.16$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x010a…8176backed Yes | 39c | 61.45$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.13 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x517d…f41fbacked Yes | 43c | 58$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.86 | 130 | 48.5%63 W · 67 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 63c | 58$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.22 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40b6…92d5backed No | 57c | 56$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.08 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -3.1wins | -0.24per pick | 63cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa79a…88d0backed No | 62c | 52$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.76 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | -7.0wins | -0.15per pick | 56cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c8…dd8ebacked No | 59c | 50.8$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 163 | 48.5%79 W · 84 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13eb…e57ebacked Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 116 | 24.1%28 W · 88 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 63c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 527 | 58.8%310 W · 217 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8f…e17ebacked No | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 272 | 48.9%133 W · 139 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 64c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.25 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3a…cf77backed No | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf01d…bb31backed No | 79c | 49$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.24 | 162 | 72.2%117 W · 45 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0786…df1dbacked Yes | 38c | 46.76$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.84 | 230 | 60.9%140 W · 90 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2052…120bbacked No | 70c | 42.86$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.86 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Yes | 40c | 42.84$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 421 | 48%202 W · 219 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1db5…d13cbacked Yes | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 52 | 38.5%20 W · 32 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfe7…88e7backed No | 61c | 40.98$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.98 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9a22…2851backed Yes | 37c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x762a…0322backed Yes | 34c | 39.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.79 | 58 | 24.1%14 W · 44 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc75…a085backed Yes | 41c | 37.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.29 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.9wins | -0.33per pick | 66cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 61c | 37.72$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.62 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 50c | 36$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.94 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6d3…118ebacked Yes | 33c | 35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 208 | 42.8%89 W · 119 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22ac…e617backed Yes | 40c | 34.76$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 64c | 33.91$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.21 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5024…3007backed No | 58c | 33.89$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.3 | 269 | 48.3%130 W · 139 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3069…c168backed No | 61c | 32.92$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.92 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 31c | 32.78$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on July 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on July 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 7?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on July 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on July 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on July 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C or higher on July 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.