Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x31e834d7776acb813605f43df92124b8f00674c1f3fc48260759eee211e6d76e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $80,612
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $81,150
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $80,612 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 150 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdbf0…ff09backed Yes | 62c | 3,313$2,049 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,264.09 | 187 | 31%58 W · 129 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc60b…d9f7backed Yes | 7c | 2,592$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,413.8 | 339 | 29.5%100 W · 239 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdadb…1870backed No | 20c | 1,856$363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$362.76 | 589 | 22.8%134 W · 455 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 68c | 1,846$1,259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,258.56 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 54c | 1,726$931 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$931.43 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf255…a6e8backed No | 61c | 1,688$1,022 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,022.45 | 82 | 69.5%57 W · 25 L | +8.7wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4989…983ebacked Yes | 32c | 1,625$518 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,106.41 | 336 | 26.8%90 W · 246 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc1…b9f8backed Yes | 11c | 1,350$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,202.03 | 349 | 22.9%80 W · 269 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 23c | 1,249$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.74 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x702e…4357backed No | 5c | 1,248$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.04 | 208 | 32.7%68 W · 140 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b2c…ecdcbacked Yes | 12c | 1,247$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,096.54 | 154 | 33.8%52 W · 102 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 57c | 1,218$690 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$690.1 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed No | 21c | 1,105$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.71 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 38c | 1,058$405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$405.42 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 21c | 1,000$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$790.2 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 42c | 985.94$416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$415.55 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 56c | 954.34$537 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$536.59 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked No | 37c | 917.93$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$343.05 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 6c | 886.55$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$830.73 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c7d…4deabacked Yes | 36c | 821.6$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$522.52 | 289 | 25.3%73 W · 216 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4dfa…b490backed Yes | 36c | 814.77$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$522.17 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 3c | 765.61$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$739.3 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6a51…006ebacked Yes | 26c | 741.35$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$546.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.74per pick | 26cpaid | +280.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 3c | 739.13$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$714.05 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf421…efcebacked Yes | 3c | 719.92$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$698.54 | 428 | 20.1%86 W · 342 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc4…7ae7backed Yes | 22c | 663.22$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$516.85 | 236 | 33.5%79 W · 157 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 660.55$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$641.87 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde67…c144backed No | 48c | 531.53$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.92 | 148 | 35.8%53 W · 95 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c8…dd8ebacked No | 68c | 516.33$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 163 | 48.5%79 W · 84 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1171…b88ebacked Yes | 49c | 446.11$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.51 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 40c | 404.27$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.72 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ec…3a46backed No | 3c | 393.3$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.61 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 68c | 369.27$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.03 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb04…48cfbacked Yes | 4c | 341.68$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$328.13 | 100 | 23%23 W · 77 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a2c…7f01backed Yes | 55c | 335.44$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.91 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc388…ed37backed Yes | 72c | 334.11$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.15 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa493…1b55backed Yes | 14c | 323.13$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.88 | 269 | 33.1%89 W · 180 L | +21.8wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +71.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 9c | 318.98$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.28 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b9…1e0ebacked Yes | 60c | 312.22$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.95 | 96 | 47.9%46 W · 50 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb9…ce8fbacked No | 25c | 310$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.5 | 152 | 36.2%55 W · 97 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 13c | 306.34$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.15 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 42c | 305.11$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.3 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4453…fc75backed Yes | 4c | 296.11$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.72 | 65 | 27.7%18 W · 47 L | +4.9wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | +68.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3be7…ad70backed Yes | 7c | 293.54$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.23 | 134 | 11.9%16 W · 118 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e4f…0f0dbacked Yes | 51c | 292.01$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.01 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…24e8backed No | 70c | 285.03$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 65cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 34c | 261.88$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.17 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4832…bb63backed Yes | 74c | 254.96$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.1 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 36c | 247.63$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.64 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4343…8deabacked No | 67c | 235.97$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.17 | 76 | 61.8%47 W · 29 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed Yes | 28c | 226$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.75 | 527 | 58.8%310 W · 217 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 30c | 219.68$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.72 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba63…36dcbacked Yes | 53c | 215$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.08 | 402 | 37.1%149 W · 253 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6a…f60cbacked Yes | 7c | 199.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.54 | 294 | 27.9%82 W · 212 L | +18.6wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe037…8a91backed Yes | 42c | 199.99$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.97 | 178 | 41.6%74 W · 104 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed No | 71c | 199.99$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.89 | 496 | 46%228 W · 268 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 19c | 198.47$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.7 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…3122backed Yes | 11c | 192.36$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.52 | 474 | 23.6%112 W · 362 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92aa…0341backed Yes | 28c | 191.03$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.71 | 79 | 26.6%21 W · 58 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -33%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e71…afe6backed Yes | 9c | 190.76$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.32 | 272 | 26.5%72 W · 200 L | +14.6wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0b…a782backed Yes | 41c | 187.6$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 515 | 37.5%193 W · 322 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 27c | 187.44$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.19 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d55…7cbabacked No | 6c | 184.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.31 | 23 | 0%0 W · 23 L | -6.0wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 56c | 180.56$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.08 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13d3…415ebacked No | 74c | 179.99$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.3 | 422 | 53.1%224 W · 198 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2228…e009backed No | 59c | 178.98$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.54 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 65cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1b…2fffbacked Yes | 57c | 174.15$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.15 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 45c | 173.89$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.93 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 26c | 172.42$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.73 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0786…df1dbacked Yes | 38c | 172.15$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.59 | 230 | 60.9%140 W · 90 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b36…0d4bbacked No | 9c | 172.05$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.77 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | -4.9wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 60c | 163.83$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.64 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78ed…ab3abacked Yes | 31c | 162.86$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.86 | 402 | 26.9%108 W · 294 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56c2…a110backed No | 72c | 161.82$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.22 | 73 | 43.8%32 W · 41 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x331d…8846backed Yes | 17c | 157.8$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.8 | 282 | 44%124 W · 158 L | +38.6wins | +0.14per pick | 30cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x2bdd…aaa8backed Yes | 46c | 156.15$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.35 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3069…c168backed No | 79c | 151.07$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0358…95a4backed Yes | 16c | 149.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.73 | 74 | 41.9%31 W · 43 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…9319backed Yes | 10c | 149.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.89 | 496 | 22.2%110 W · 386 L | +26.1wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 31c | 143.25$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.14 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea72…298abacked Yes | 54c | 142.03$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.75 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…4c78backed Yes | 15c | 138.98$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.09 | 68 | 17.6%12 W · 56 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | +60.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 17c | 130.6$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.81 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf5…41abbacked No | 17c | 127.14$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.91 | 472 | 39.8%188 W · 284 L | +31.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7f23…29b2backed Yes | 17c | 124.39$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.19 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -2.9wins | -0.17per pick | 47cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 53c | 122$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.47 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9e…c96bbacked Yes | 21c | 121.87$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.43 | 413 | 31%128 W · 285 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed No | 31c | 115.58$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.62 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x517d…f41fbacked Yes | 30c | 115$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.03 | 130 | 48.5%63 W · 67 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x920c…f07dbacked Yes | 74c | 111.98$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Yes | 58c | 111.89$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.57 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 30c | 111.06$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 18c | 103.22$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.96 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72b3…d48cbacked No | 73c | 100$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.63 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -2.3wins | -0.14per pick | 25cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked Yes | 23c | 90.6$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.76 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd615…ae32backed Yes | 52c | 87.59$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.97 | 339 | 62.8%213 W · 126 L | +40.8wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9e42…4938backed No | 34c | 87.45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.09 | 388 | 30.2%117 W · 271 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x010a…8176backed Yes | 55c | 86.79$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.86 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c2c…a94cbacked Yes | 35c | 82.67$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.95 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +2.9wins | +0.10per pick | 32cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8e…05a4backed Yes | 33c | 78.4$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.24 | 430 | 50.2%216 W · 214 L | +21.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on July 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on July 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on July 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on July 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on July 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C or higher on July 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.