Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on July 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x295f2f6ddd847deccc1debf364551bc141c0de0b542a917c6b385fa2e59cf0a1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,728
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,450
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,728 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 2c | 1,338$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c7d…4deabacked Yes | 2c | 1,022$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 289 | 25.3%73 W · 216 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 2c | 767.1$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.75 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92aa…0341backed Yes | 26c | 712.1$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.05 | 79 | 26.6%21 W · 58 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -33%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 5c | 705.97$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.32 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf0…ff09backed Yes | 27c | 698.38$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.1 | 187 | 31%58 W · 129 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x235e…5673backed Yes | 35c | 519.96$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.59 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4989…983ebacked Yes | 4c | 500$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 336 | 26.8%90 W · 246 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b2c…ecdcbacked Yes | 5c | 499.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.1 | 154 | 33.8%52 W · 102 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef11…a7a1backed Yes | 24c | 418.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 53 | 35.8%19 W · 34 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…3122backed Yes | 9c | 399.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.9 | 474 | 23.6%112 W · 362 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c8…dd8ebacked Yes | 8c | 397.51$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 163 | 48.5%79 W · 84 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7e…401ebacked Yes | 9c | 392.87$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 374 | 17.4%65 W · 309 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc1…b9f8backed Yes | 9c | 355.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.22 | 349 | 22.9%80 W · 269 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 3c | 290.07$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc4…7ae7backed No | 71c | 285.64$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.01 | 236 | 33.5%79 W · 157 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 27c | 213.86$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.07 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 9c | 168.17$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2052…120bbacked Yes | 14c | 159.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 75c | 150$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.8 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0358…95a4backed Yes | 24c | 150$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.67 | 74 | 41.9%31 W · 43 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e0…b306backed Yes | 22c | 149.98$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.5 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510b…8261backed Yes | 26c | 126.92$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -74%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 11c | 122.92$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.08 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 73c | 113.79$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.78 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed No | 61c | 103.15$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.15 | 440 | 58.2%256 W · 184 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 13c | 99.96$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.07 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 21c | 96.98$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.72 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 77c | 96.27$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.93 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 74c | 90.94$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.43 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 31c | 77.25$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 75c | 74.27$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.43 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x896e…b02abacked Yes | 41c | 73.3$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0cbb…9b60backed Yes | 16c | 70$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 159 | 15.7%25 W · 134 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x736e…e8c2backed Yes | 38c | 65.23$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 78c | 64.38$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.39 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 71c | 62.92$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.32 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8494…f290backed Yes | 40c | 62.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed Yes | 29c | 57.9$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.59 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 32c | 54$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.28 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e70…bb75backed Yes | 24c | 52.08$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 74 | 44.6%33 W · 41 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +19%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d39…e6f6backed No | 77c | 51.86$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.86 | 55 | 63.6%35 W · 20 L | +6.0wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 21c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xacc6…a78bbacked Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -3.2wins | -0.15per pick | 39cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…abbdbacked Yes | 41c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.38 | 446 | 46.2%206 W · 240 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 80c | 49.32$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.93 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93a6…b1c2backed No | 76c | 46.18$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.04 | 105 | 47.6%50 W · 55 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 70c | 45.9$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.7 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x758d…9548backed Yes | 25c | 45.68$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.42 | 51 | 33.3%17 W · 34 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -25%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed Yes | 23c | 45.32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4c77…ff72backed No | 67c | 42$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.96 | 45 | 71.1%32 W · 13 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 66cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40bf…9e13backed No | 67c | 41.87$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.82 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7609…1443backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22ac…e617backed Yes | 39c | 38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 64c | 37.72$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.65 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x296e…0b9abacked Yes | 33c | 35.92$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 57 | 22.8%13 W · 44 L | -7.1wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa79a…88d0backed Yes | 32c | 35.92$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.49 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | -7.0wins | -0.15per pick | 56cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 35c | 29.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ec…e53abacked No | 74c | 28.04$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.29 | 155 | 53.5%83 W · 72 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 61c | 27.88$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.91 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 77c | 26.1$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.1 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 79c | 25.01$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 548 | 67.3%369 W · 179 L | +26.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…b1f2backed No | 63c | 23.81$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.81 | 51 | 60.8%31 W · 20 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 76c | 20.81$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.99 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 19.98$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.39 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 80c | 18.67$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.73 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 63c | 18.12$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.71 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 75c | 17.32$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.33 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57ab…a228backed No | 66c | 16.71$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 52 | 67.3%35 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 69c | 16.47$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.17 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f70…133ebacked No | 73c | 14.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.1 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab14…e786backed No | 78c | 14.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.35 | 112 | 43.8%49 W · 63 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on July 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on July 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 7?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on July 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on July 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on July 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C or higher on July 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.