Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 39°C or higher on July 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcf00b70b88554df6b7661459cd4c38052b678b02731bb539f2352157e20188d9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,241
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,953
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,241 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x14db…7cafbacked No | 26c | 1,546$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x710b…a42dbacked No | 36c | 548.54$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 203 | 27.1%55 W · 148 L | +10.2wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 70c | 507.79$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.49 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 74c | 400$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 66c | 346.93$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.54 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0718…a164backed No | 51c | 326.15$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.81 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 12c | 304.07$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.67 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6424…2718backed Yes | 59c | 271.86$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.98 | 427 | 54.6%233 W · 194 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 5c | 250$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 68c | 240.85$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.05 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 56c | 238.98$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.26 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…187dbacked Yes | 7c | 200$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186 | 613 | 65.3%400 W · 213 L | +43.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed Yes | 56c | 172.57$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.16 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 56c | 172.47$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.47 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 58c | 165.79$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.66 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 72c | 164.44$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.55 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 44c | 150.74$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.81 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebf0…2330backed No | 38c | 148.5$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 410 | 51.7%212 W · 198 L | +24.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xadb0…1c8cbacked Yes | 21c | 134.15$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.74 | 541 | 43.1%233 W · 308 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 38c | 123$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.32 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 21c | 116.65$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 37c | 106.48$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.2 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 30c | 105.55$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.15 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 38c | 97.91$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.25 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1f2…9bf5backed No | 38c | 92.91$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.53 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 53c | 92.13$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.68 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 74c | 83.67$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.75 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6784…7565backed Yes | 59c | 83.06$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.67 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 61c | 80$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.4 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b84…16eebacked Yes | 70c | 79.98$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 17c | 76.14$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed No | 66c | 72.04$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.69 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 47c | 69.75$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.19 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d2…0ecfbacked No | 45c | 69.33$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.36 | 205 | 46.8%96 W · 109 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 67c | 69.1$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.86 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x847c…9ff8backed No | 38c | 65.24$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 225 | 50.2%113 W · 112 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 24c | 63.69$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.59 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x073e…8416backed Yes | 59c | 56$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.96 | 88 | 48.9%43 W · 45 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed No | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 60c | 47.9$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.97 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2e…889fbacked Yes | 33c | 47.84$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.04 | 405 | 25.2%102 W · 303 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 50c | 45.6$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked Yes | 58c | 44.82$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.69 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 61c | 42.81$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.56 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde9a…8193backed No | 40c | 41.97$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.91 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 72c | 40.42$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.01 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06db…5244backed Yes | 80c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed Yes | 74c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed No | 34c | 35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 384 | 54.9%211 W · 173 L | +26.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed No | 49c | 34.68$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.01 | 464 | 57.5%267 W · 197 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8859…89d6backed Yes | 68c | 34.17$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.07 | 95 | 41.1%39 W · 56 L | -9.2wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb3eb…b529backed Yes | 48c | 32.04$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.66 | 616 | 29.4%181 W · 435 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0366…ec39backed Yes | 49c | 31.15$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.78 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -2.6wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaba2…003dbacked No | 79c | 27.7$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9009…1621backed Yes | 66c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 196 | 63.3%124 W · 72 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0550…c7efbacked Yes | 68c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.11 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb699…4e20backed Yes | 53c | 24.35$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.44 | 213 | 52.1%111 W · 102 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4eab…2caabacked Yes | 55c | 23.87$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.74 | 445 | 67%298 W · 147 L | +17.6wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x194b…2a11backed Yes | 55c | 23.87$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.74 | 288 | 66.3%191 W · 97 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 50c | 22.8$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0b72…dc2ebacked No | 60c | 22.75$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 284 | 41.5%118 W · 166 L | -18.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5686…690abacked Yes | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked Yes | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 648 | 59.1%383 W · 265 L | -21.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc75…a085backed Yes | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.9wins | -0.33per pick | 66cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x30fe…74bcbacked No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 186 | 71%132 W · 54 L | +19.2wins | +0.10per pick | 61cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed Yes | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 293 | 54.3%159 W · 134 L | -25.6wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed Yes | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1917…138bbacked Yes | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 337 | 46.9%158 W · 179 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked Yes | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9d…558bbacked Yes | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.65 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 66c | 19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.37 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb2…d640backed Yes | 76c | 18.05$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.33 | 49 | 61.2%30 W · 19 L | +3.7wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked Yes | 62c | 17.97$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 39°C or higher on July 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on July 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on July 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on July 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C on July 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.