Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on July 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x76c2a8a113e5f0575342d04f1805db0e68a6b5d7e9d735a64445981b18a3f9f0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,476
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,410
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,476 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x451a…3b01backed No | 1c | 3,437$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 178 | 58.4%104 W · 74 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ec…710abacked Yes | 11c | 890.91$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$793.23 | 135 | 45.9%62 W · 73 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed No | 11c | 719.42$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.09 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 35c | 301.34$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.54 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 42c | 293.52$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.52 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 16c | 215.55$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.61 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b97…8d30backed No | 7c | 197$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.31 | 33 | 21.2%7 W · 26 L | -2.7wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 9c | 176.03$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.33 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 50c | 159.81$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.92 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 26c | 138.48$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.43 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 56c | 130.24$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.56 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 75c | 125.85$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.17 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 45c | 125.73$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.15 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 67c | 120.72$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.79 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 47c | 108.79$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.41 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2cfb…636dbacked Yes | 11c | 105.29$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.34 | 112 | 25%28 W · 84 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 44c | 103.3$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.85 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 68c | 100.4$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.28 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x738e…cc2cbacked Yes | 78c | 79.78$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.44 | 68 | 94.1%64 W · 4 L | +12.7wins | +0.19per pick | 75cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 64c | 79.19$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.57 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x25b2…4edbbacked No | 61c | 73.59$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.86 | 55 | 32.7%18 W · 37 L | -7.1wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 23c | 68.8$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.8 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc9…bfbcbacked No | 77c | 65.31$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 185 | 65.4%121 W · 64 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74ff…3208backed Yes | 38c | 60$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.2 | 104 | 36.5%38 W · 66 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4149…44c4backed Yes | 37c | 58.32$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.97 | 154 | 49.4%76 W · 78 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 58c | 56.8$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.97 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed70…04cebacked No | 54c | 55.55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x080a…ee79backed Yes | 37c | 54.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.09 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fa…4531backed Yes | 41c | 53.64$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.59 | 319 | 36.1%115 W · 204 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 25c | 47.87$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.82 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45e7…d77cbacked Yes | 43c | 47.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.02 | 495 | 51.9%257 W · 238 L | -25.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed Yes | 33c | 46.09$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.09 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes | 43c | 46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.22 | 461 | 48.8%225 W · 236 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed Yes | 36c | 43.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.84 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 63c | 42.49$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.77 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 54c | 40.29$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.96 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa36b…1d89backed Yes | 48c | 38.35$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.94 | 555 | 38.4%213 W · 342 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1585…025abacked Yes | 40c | 38.28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.03 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -26%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 58c | 35.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed Yes | 37c | 34.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.04 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 37c | 34.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.09 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55bc…52d8backed Yes | 45c | 32.38$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.81 | 68 | 39.7%27 W · 41 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 33c | 32.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 51c | 31.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.32 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked Yes | 33c | 31.82$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.39 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 57c | 31.18$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.72 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 63c | 31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 67c | 30.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.39 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 425 | 55.1%234 W · 191 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 71c | 29.98$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.29 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6793…1869backed No | 77c | 28.62$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.04 | 315 | 64.8%204 W · 111 L | -13.5wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6011…b31ebacked Yes | 53c | 25.77$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.09 | 162 | 95.7%155 W · 7 L | +61.2wins | +0.38per pick | 58cpaid | +97.3%equal weight | 86+0.33 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 77c | 25.08$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.25 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 59c | 24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.16 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0b72…dc2ebacked No | 67c | 22.52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 284 | 41.5%118 W · 166 L | -18.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa99f…b306backed No | 62c | 21.32$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.22 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 53cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 69c | 21.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb53…fde7backed No | 59c | 20.37$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.05 | 259 | 54.1%140 W · 119 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc75…a085backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.9wins | -0.33per pick | 66cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 59c | 18.55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.03 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb226…4163backed No | 62c | 18.41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 136 | 72.1%98 W · 38 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 69cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 60c | 16.72$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 72c | 16.42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.82 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 75c | 14.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.79 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on July 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on July 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on July 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on July 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.