Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on July 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x78d8d1a34cc87125a5bf156c3495fcafbae478369a47fa07708871006b26c1bf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,093
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,817
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,093 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 84 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5d4e…14cfbacked Yes | 2c | 2,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 138 | 9.4%13 W · 125 L | +10.4wins | +0.08per pick | 2cpaid | +357.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc5f5…5d54backed No | 59c | 1,686$988 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$697.96 | 283 | 24.7%70 W · 213 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1c…55e4backed No | 79c | 1,515$1,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315.67 | 48 | 87.5%42 W · 6 L | +12.0wins | +0.25per pick | 63cpaid | +49%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 44c | 815.77$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355.38 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 61c | 524.16$321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.61 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed Yes | 40c | 341$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.4 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 12c | 330$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 42c | 317.78$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.04 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 41c | 300$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4207…b81bbacked Yes | 34c | 300$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +4.0wins | +0.15per pick | 44cpaid | +47%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 59c | 294.05$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.71 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 53c | 271.55$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.5 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 57c | 259.53$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.07 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 79c | 236.68$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.65 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 73c | 229.99$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.51 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes | 11c | 224.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.97 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 6c | 220.4$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.2 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 53c | 220.23$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.53 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed No | 58c | 196.81$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.66 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed No | 48c | 168.57$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.94 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 36c | 167.48$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.02 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed No | 9c | 162.39$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.91 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 52c | 149.77$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.72 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 42c | 149$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.58 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed No | 50c | 118.22$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.6 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea2…665abacked Yes | 55c | 117.64$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.13 | 394 | 27.4%108 W · 286 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf33c…488cbacked Yes | 40c | 114.19$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.68 | 102 | 44.1%45 W · 57 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ecc…c745backed No | 44c | 103.15$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.67 | 179 | 47.5%85 W · 94 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 28c | 100.82$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.71 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 59c | 100.4$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.54 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 54c | 98.61$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.36 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e4…f053backed No | 46c | 98.3$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.74 | 180 | 46.1%83 W · 97 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed Yes | 40c | 90$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 29c | 79.19$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.59 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe01…87d3backed No | 13c | 78.88$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.84 | 303 | 32.3%98 W · 205 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 39c | 74.04$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.66 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 48c | 70.99$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.1 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 51c | 69.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.7 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 46c | 69.86$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.79 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed No | 46c | 69.81$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.39 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 44c | 68.35$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.4 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 45c | 66.98$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.92 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 57c | 61.74$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.77 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13c1…3365backed Yes | 52c | 57.85$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 50c | 56.78$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.22 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 35c | 53.29$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.46 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9248…6955backed Yes | 57c | 52.92$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 64 | 42.2%27 W · 37 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45e7…d77cbacked No | 60c | 52.57$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.03 | 495 | 51.9%257 W · 238 L | -25.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed No | 50c | 49.51$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.86 | 464 | 57.5%267 W · 197 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked Yes | 51c | 49.05$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.84 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcff7…2fb1backed No | 58c | 48.7$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.51 | 214 | 51.9%111 W · 103 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6cdf…12d4backed No | 44c | 48.15$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.97 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -3.7wins | -0.29per pick | 52cpaid | -58.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 49c | 47.67$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.36 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2429…02d9backed No | 45c | 45.5$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.82 | 177 | 47.5%84 W · 93 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 42c | 45.36$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.38 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 62c | 45.03$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.11 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 42c | 42.93$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.1 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed Yes | 42c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8859…89d6backed Yes | 38c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 95 | 41.1%39 W · 56 L | -9.2wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x858b…a2cebacked Yes | 54c | 39.98$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.59 | 171 | 44.4%76 W · 95 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Yes | 58c | 39.2$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.71 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1dc…4f72backed No | 54c | 36.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.75 | 241 | 64.7%156 W · 85 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 45c | 36.1$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.75 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 48c | 31$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.99 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked No | 35c | 30.7$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.86 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a3…ad9ebacked No | 48c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 160 | 46.3%74 W · 86 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 52c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf576…a786backed No | 45c | 29.93$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.57 | 376 | 69.4%261 W · 115 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd470…9b38backed No | 72c | 27.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e96…b306backed Yes | 56c | 27.28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 201 | 44.8%90 W · 111 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 59c | 27.06$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.87 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x3c70…34c4backed No | 43c | 23.7$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.51 | 168 | 47.6%80 W · 88 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff18…a5fbbacked Yes | 56c | 22.74$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.78 | 78 | 35.9%28 W · 50 L | -7.9wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x31ea…46d5backed Yes | 53c | 21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 43 | 23.3%10 W · 33 L | -5.6wins | -0.13per pick | 36cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked Yes | 54c | 21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e99…b482backed Yes | 56c | 20.44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 425 | 44%187 W · 238 L | +15.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec3…acbabacked Yes | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb431…82ecbacked No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 297 | 69.4%206 W · 91 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb36f…b8a8backed Yes | 53c | 18.87$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +3.8wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +30%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 60c | 18.55$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.36 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x232a…4895backed Yes | 56c | 17.86$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | -9.8wins | -0.11per pick | 64cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 69c | 15.71$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.81 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on July 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on July 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on July 4?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on July 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.