TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on July 4?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$26,093
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$33,817

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,093 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 84 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5d4e…14cfbacked Yes2c2,000$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401389.4%13 W · 125 L+10.4wins+0.08per pick2cpaid+357.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc5f5…5d54backed No59c1,686$988 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$697.9628324.7%70 W · 213 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-22.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7f1c…55e4backed No79c1,515$1,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$315.674887.5%42 W · 6 L+12.0wins+0.25per pick63cpaid+49%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0xfd36…a832backed Yes44c815.77$355 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$355.3865043.4%282 W · 368 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x75cc…6b15backed No61c524.16$321 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$203.611,18149.4%583 W · 598 L-9.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xffd0…cd07backed Yes40c341$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.42,31157.7%1,334 W · 977 L-19.0wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes12c330$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.64,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xe086…0450backed Yes42c317.78$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.041,24352.5%652 W · 591 L-18.7wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xeaa9…1737backed Yes41c300$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1231,12651.2%577 W · 549 L-21.2wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4207…b81bbacked Yes34c300$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1022759.3%16 W · 11 L+4.0wins+0.15per pick44cpaid+47%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No59c294.05$174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.714,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7ae4…fc82backed No53c271.55$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.52,53050.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L-48.9wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed Yes57c259.53$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.075,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f85…7b02backed No79c236.68$188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.652,06855.9%1,156 W · 912 L+44.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No73c229.99$168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.514,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes11c224.99$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.976219.8%61 W · 560 L-6.7wins-0.01per pick11cpaid+3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed No6c220.4$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$206.28,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No53c220.23$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.533,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca07…6269backed No58c196.81$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.6671649.4%354 W · 362 L-18.9wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8a25…ba81backed No48c168.57$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.9461760.1%371 W · 246 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick60cpaid+5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x8edc…80d8backed Yes36c167.48$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.021,17956.4%665 W · 514 L+19.0wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcd15…b352backed No9c162.39$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.911,85718.7%347 W · 1,510 L+77.0wins+0.04per pick15cpaid+25.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes52c149.77$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.729,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes42c149$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.581,28051.2%655 W · 625 L-33.7wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0729…5f54backed No50c118.22$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.667158.6%393 W · 278 L-8.1wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9ea2…665abacked Yes55c117.64$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.1339427.4%108 W · 286 L0.0wins0.00per pick27cpaid-4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf33c…488cbacked Yes40c114.19$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.6810244.1%45 W · 57 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-6.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0ecc…c745backed No44c103.15$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.6717947.5%85 W · 94 L+5.0wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3a1f…4877backed Yes28c100.82$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.7180130.8%247 W · 554 L+1.2wins0.00per pick31cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No59c100.4$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.545,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No54c98.61$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.361,42852.1%744 W · 684 L-21.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc3e4…f053backed No46c98.3$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.7418046.1%83 W · 97 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0947…9e92backed Yes40c90$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3658152%302 W · 279 L+8.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes29c79.19$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.596,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfe01…87d3backed No13c78.88$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.8430332.3%98 W · 205 L-6.7wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-16.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed Yes39c74.04$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.666,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc6d8…b90dbacked No48c70.99$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.183459.8%499 W · 335 L+27.5wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+6.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes51c69.99$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.73,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x38e2…2909backed No46c69.86$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.793,47953%1,845 W · 1,634 L+72.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xabb7…df91backed No46c69.81$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.3994552.5%496 W · 449 L+27.0wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No44c68.35$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.412,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f12…59ddbacked No45c66.98$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.9294066.4%624 W · 316 L+3.4wins0.00per pick66cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x46f1…701fbacked No57c61.74$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.772,87755.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L-59.3wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x13c1…3365backed Yes52c57.85$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302941.4%12 W · 17 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No50c56.78$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.224,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x005e…6d8ebacked No35c53.29$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.462,04657%1,167 W · 879 L+73.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-1.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9248…6955backed Yes57c52.92$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$306442.2%27 W · 37 L-2.3wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-14%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x45e7…d77cbacked No60c52.57$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.0349551.9%257 W · 238 L-25.1wins-0.05per pick57cpaid-10%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6d77…a694backed No60c50$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$201,16057.3%665 W · 495 L+20.1wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb57e…0b91backed No50c49.51$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.8646457.5%267 W · 197 L-12.6wins-0.03per pick60cpaid-6.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd34c…f04cbacked Yes51c49.05$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.8467336.1%243 W · 430 L-48.7wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-18.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xcff7…2fb1backed No58c48.7$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.5121451.9%111 W · 103 L+0.4wins0.00per pick52cpaid-2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6cdf…12d4backed No44c48.15$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.971323.1%3 W · 10 L-3.7wins-0.29per pick52cpaid-58.4%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x9b12…c2d5backed No49c47.67$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.362,09056.7%1,186 W · 904 L+60.1wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2429…02d9backed No45c45.5$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.8217747.5%84 W · 93 L+4.6wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb2e4…b7f1backed No42c45.36$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.382,06556.3%1,163 W · 902 L+56.7wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcdbc…bd73backed No62c45.03$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.1191861.5%565 W · 353 L+1.6wins0.00per pick61cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes42c42.93$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.146240.5%187 W · 275 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed Yes42c40$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.63,17562.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L+12.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8859…89d6backed Yes38c40$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.29541.1%39 W · 56 L-9.2wins-0.10per pick51cpaid-25.6%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x858b…a2cebacked Yes54c39.98$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.5917144.4%76 W · 95 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2654…b45fbacked Yes58c39.2$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.711,08959.4%647 W · 442 L+2.3wins0.00per pick59cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa1dc…4f72backed No54c36.55$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.7524164.7%156 W · 85 L-8.0wins-0.03per pick68cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed No45c36.1$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.757,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x27ab…e521backed No48c31$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.9965965.4%431 W · 228 L-12.7wins-0.02per pick67cpaid-2.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x607c…8e7ebacked No35c30.7$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.8696015%144 W · 816 L+9.2wins+0.01per pick14cpaid+4.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf7a3…ad9ebacked No48c30$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.616046.3%74 W · 86 L-6.3wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-6.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe695…538ebacked Yes52c30$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.681855%450 W · 368 L+1.5wins0.00per pick55cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf576…a786backed No45c29.93$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.5737669.4%261 W · 115 L+1.6wins0.00per pick69cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd470…9b38backed No72c27.77$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.78850%4 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick58cpaid+1.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3e96…b306backed Yes56c27.28$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.220144.8%90 W · 111 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes59c27.06$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.8712,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x3c70…34c4backed No43c23.7$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.5116847.6%80 W · 88 L+4.9wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xff18…a5fbbacked Yes56c22.74$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.787835.9%28 W · 50 L-7.9wins-0.10per pick46cpaid-30.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x31ea…46d5backed Yes53c21$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.114323.3%10 W · 33 L-5.6wins-0.13per pick36cpaid-38.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked Yes54c21$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.344,96168.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L+65.6wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2e99…b482backed Yes56c20.44$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.4542544%187 W · 238 L+15.1wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+4.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x61f9…8055backed No58c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.490555.6%503 W · 402 L-1.3wins0.00per pick56cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1ec3…acbabacked Yes58c20$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.6366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick56cpaid+22.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb431…82ecbacked No72c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.629769.4%206 W · 91 L+5.3wins+0.02per pick68cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb36f…b8a8backed Yes53c18.87$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103748.6%18 W · 19 L+3.8wins+0.10per pick38cpaid+30%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3d1d…9e61backed No60c18.55$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.362,87064.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L-32.8wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x232a…4895backed Yes56c17.86$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109053.3%48 W · 42 L-9.8wins-0.11per pick64cpaid-24.3%equal weight41-0.09 edge/pick
0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No69c15.71$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.811,55056.7%879 W · 671 L-83.2wins-0.05per pick62cpaid-10.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.