Weather · resolved market
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x82ea54945532e5f399428add155eda56e29a495594b8689955b7ecbb7ca83c28
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,661
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,843
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,661 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 85 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdadb…1870backed Yes | 36c | 4,217$1,533 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,683.46 | 589 | 22.8%134 W · 455 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 41c | 894.74$367 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$527.9 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 4c | 768.74$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.52 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 75c | 651.63$487 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$487.49 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 48c | 591.75$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308.67 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4989…983ebacked Yes | 21c | 496.08$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$393.47 | 336 | 26.8%90 W · 246 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xead3…b125backed No | 59c | 488.8$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.39 | 72 | 52.8%38 W · 34 L | -4.2wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 60c | 449.38$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.72 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf0…ff09backed Yes | 14c | 382.26$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$327.3 | 187 | 31%58 W · 129 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed4c…03cabacked No | 58c | 361.01$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.51 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc60b…d9f7backed Yes | 14c | 350.74$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.24 | 339 | 29.5%100 W · 239 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 60c | 350$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.9 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 61c | 350$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.5 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 42c | 344.5$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.45 | 538 | 55%296 W · 242 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed Yes | 39c | 343.01$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.74 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 66c | 305.69$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.04 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 61c | 300$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 66c | 300$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 23c | 291.08$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.36 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5323…326abacked Yes | 29c | 278.57$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.57 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -2.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 12c | 254.13$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.84 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x189e…89d9backed Yes | 13c | 239.64$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.88 | 293 | 45.1%132 W · 161 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 55c | 228.31$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.71 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 66c | 202$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.32 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6be…f6a3backed Yes | 26c | 192.3$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.3 | 299 | 41.1%123 W · 176 L | +20.8wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 69c | 178.34$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.72 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 23c | 143.71$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.66 | 726 | 24.8%180 W · 546 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 66c | 140$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.4 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 64c | 125.86$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.11 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaac4…efa0backed Yes | 48c | 107.47$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.3 | 90 | 38.9%35 W · 55 L | -7.0wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcc75…a085backed No | 70c | 100$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.9wins | -0.33per pick | 66cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9381…8059backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.55per pick | 12cpaid | +442.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 67c | 99$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.81 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 50c | 96.72$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.33 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 68c | 89.79$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.95 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x65a5…2aeebacked Yes | 39c | 89$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.42 | 164 | 53%87 W · 77 L | -12.5wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x702e…4357backed No | 31c | 83.24$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 208 | 32.7%68 W · 140 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffcf…67b0backed Yes | 13c | 82.1$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.1 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5579…2db1backed No | 63c | 78.39$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.73 | 138 | 52.9%73 W · 65 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b7…cdb7backed No | 61c | 74.8$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.63 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb930…435fbacked No | 40c | 74.4$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.76 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 56c | 69.48$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.8 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 75c | 66.06$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.47 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 70c | 65.21$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.33 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 41c | 60$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9551…ca44backed Yes | 45c | 60$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.3 | 159 | 50.3%80 W · 79 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7e3…7c16backed Yes | 32c | 58.91$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.91 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e71…afe6backed Yes | 29c | 52.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.43 | 272 | 26.5%72 W · 200 L | +14.6wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 49c | 52$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.48 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 65c | 50.03$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.52 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8f…e17ebacked Yes | 43c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 272 | 48.9%133 W · 139 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xacac…50fbbacked No | 40c | 48.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.51 | 283 | 60.4%171 W · 112 L | -8.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 46c | 47$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.62 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 29c | 45.01$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.96 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 52c | 44$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.06 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34fd…15a0backed No | 38c | 42$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 72c | 40.35$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.25 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe01…b8aebacked No | 63c | 39.68$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 264 | 58.7%155 W · 109 L | -20.5wins | -0.08per pick | 66cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 39c | 36.75$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.23 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 34c | 36.7$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 527 | 58.8%310 W · 217 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 65c | 36$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 70c | 35.28$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.7 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37df…f8b9backed No | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 119 | 58.8%70 W · 49 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes | 62c | 32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.16 | 461 | 48.8%225 W · 236 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 67c | 31$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.91 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 79c | 30.87$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.4 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x308f…8607backed No | 77c | 30.74$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.62 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | -4.7wins | -0.11per pick | 60cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x34b0…05a6backed No | 60c | 30.42$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.25 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 57c | 29.36$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.68 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 57c | 29.28$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.82 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed No | 39c | 29.03$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.32 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90f2…ef25backed Yes | 69c | 28.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.98 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 68c | 25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6104…f040backed No | 73c | 24.98$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.14 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 62c | 21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.02 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 66c | 21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 583 | 58%338 W · 245 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 58c | 20.83$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.02 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2a…3706backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 348 | 53.4%186 W · 162 L | -19.2wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee02…ce88backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 107 | 64.5%69 W · 38 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43fd…59d3backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 159 | 61.6%98 W · 61 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…c62ebacked Yes | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 55 | 58.2%32 W · 23 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 55c | 19.91$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.93 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4941…b03cbacked No | 69c | 16.4$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.32 | 133 | 63.9%85 W · 48 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 25?this page
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 25?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 25?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 25?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.