Weather · resolved market
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2208edd4deb3f7a09beb649b784d44719e2472125a08f6cf63ff5c9b3606b6d8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,106
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,060
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,106 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 101 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc60b…d9f7backed Yes | 29c | 1,616$474 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$473.58 | 339 | 29.5%100 W · 239 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 72c | 826$592 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$591.85 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 28c | 657.78$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$473.29 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked No | 20c | 533.84$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$424.8 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 31c | 462.16$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.6 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 64c | 356.23$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.27 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 57c | 344.55$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.52 | 538 | 55%296 W · 242 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1e…7ee3backed No | 39c | 305.17$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.62 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed No | 71c | 300$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87 | 559 | 54.7%306 W · 253 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 71c | 300$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed Yes | 62c | 299.51$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.13 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 14c | 292.01$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.11 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4989…983ebacked Yes | 32c | 270.44$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.83 | 336 | 26.8%90 W · 246 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4343…8deabacked Yes | 76c | 264.48$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 76 | 61.8%47 W · 29 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45b3…c90bbacked Yes | 80c | 254.75$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.8 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -2.3wins | -0.39per pick | 72cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 71c | 243$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.47 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaac4…efa0backed No | 28c | 231.99$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.39 | 90 | 38.9%35 W · 55 L | -7.0wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed No | 43c | 223.48$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.55 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 19c | 217.75$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.05 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 13c | 210.18$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.79 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed Yes | 32c | 203.73$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.19 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed No | 71c | 200$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 548 | 53.1%291 W · 257 L | -28.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xead3…b125backed No | 69c | 189.33$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.69 | 72 | 52.8%38 W · 34 L | -4.2wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3f…675cbacked No | 44c | 186.99$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.41 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +3.3wins | +0.37per pick | 52cpaid | +69.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 24c | 172.22$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.67 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06e8…9c25backed Yes | 23c | 171.25$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 60 | 40%24 W · 36 L | -8.1wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9327…9800backed Yes | 64c | 170$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.6 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b63…c6adbacked Yes | 55c | 169.77$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.84 | 55 | 29.1%16 W · 39 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cf8…31bcbacked No | 35c | 152.81$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.35 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf0…ff09backed Yes | 73c | 152.48$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.07 | 187 | 31%58 W · 129 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 32c | 145.11$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.92 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 26c | 140$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd2…9ab1backed No | 10c | 129$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.1 | 91 | 53.8%49 W · 42 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked Yes | 56c | 127.05$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.74 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 30c | 118.3$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.13 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 17c | 110$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.3 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 29c | 107.99$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.67 | 726 | 24.8%180 W · 546 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 19c | 107.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.26 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 77c | 100.98$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.38 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…31b5backed No | 20c | 100$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 95 | 36.8%35 W · 60 L | -4.8wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa57c…bf42backed No | 25c | 99.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -2.7wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 19c | 98.5$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.88 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 43c | 98.48$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.97 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 49c | 96.91$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.24 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 78c | 96$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.21 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x189e…89d9backed Yes | 80c | 91.63$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.3 | 293 | 45.1%132 W · 161 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdadb…1870backed Yes | 26c | 91.27$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.98 | 589 | 22.8%134 W · 455 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd731…4199backed Yes | 71c | 84.99$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.45 | 92 | 73.9%68 W · 24 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 69cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc1…b9f8backed Yes | 71c | 84.84$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.24 | 349 | 22.9%80 W · 269 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 18c | 82.71$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.95 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 66c | 82.37$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.68 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 80c | 80.99$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcff7…2fb1backed No | 36c | 77.59$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.68 | 214 | 51.9%111 W · 103 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 78c | 75$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.4 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b96…d0bcbacked Yes | 27c | 72.82$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.39 | 58 | 63.8%37 W · 21 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf255…a6e8backed No | 37c | 71.23$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.16 | 82 | 69.5%57 W · 25 L | +8.7wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed No | 34c | 70$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.2 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 44c | 64.81$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.29 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 33c | 63.98$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.87 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 72c | 60$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 648 | 59.1%383 W · 265 L | -21.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e42…4938backed No | 49c | 60$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.6 | 388 | 30.2%117 W · 271 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb53…fde7backed No | 35c | 60$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.2 | 259 | 54.1%140 W · 119 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 64c | 60$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 20c | 56.71$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.26 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 51c | 52$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.48 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 37c | 50.03$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.52 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7071…91dfbacked Yes | 79c | 50$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.5 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -6.6wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -40%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 527 | 58.8%310 W · 217 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbccf…95e1backed Yes | 79c | 50$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.5 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 63cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf13…b18dbacked Yes | 63c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 36c | 48.62$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.02 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x702e…4357backed Yes | 61c | 47.63$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.27 | 208 | 32.7%68 W · 140 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x65a5…2aeebacked Yes | 57c | 46.22$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.46 | 164 | 53%87 W · 77 L | -12.5wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 49c | 44$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.36 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9551…ca44backed No | 36c | 42.18$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.89 | 159 | 50.3%80 W · 79 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x983a…ca05backed Yes | 32c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed No | 58c | 39.98$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.65 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb56c…30f3backed Yes | 53c | 37.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.13 | 104 | 55.8%58 W · 46 L | +10.4wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 79c | 37.38$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.51 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 68c | 36.75$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.66 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc05…9a76backed Yes | 67c | 35.96$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.1 | 284 | 55.6%158 W · 126 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d7c…5dadbacked Yes | 76c | 35.96$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.25 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7747…fe40backed No | 48c | 35.2$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.15 | 65 | 60%39 W · 26 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 55c | 32.5$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.86 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6104…f040backed Yes | 72c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.7 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 43c | 29.36$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.68 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8b…2ef7backed Yes | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 26 | 73.1%19 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 67cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x308f…8607backed Yes | 71c | 28.69$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.37 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | -4.7wins | -0.11per pick | 60cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x69f4…c6eebacked Yes | 70c | 25.61$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 108 | 47.2%51 W · 57 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2560…8d6dbacked Yes | 63c | 23.97$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.16 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +39%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.77 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 71c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.09 | 583 | 58%338 W · 245 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d1f…e428backed Yes | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 99 | 31.3%31 W · 68 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…c62ebacked No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 55 | 58.2%32 W · 23 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2644…b207backed Yes | 78c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -3.2wins | -0.23per pick | 52cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5579…2db1backed No | 68c | 19.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 138 | 52.9%73 W · 65 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 79c | 18.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.99 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 61c | 18.52$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 25?this page
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 25?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 25?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 25?Yes won
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.