Middle East · resolved market
Fact Check: is L.A. U-Haul attack perp a U.S. Citizen?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd5893d2696afbf54b851b3f552872135f1c5f812a0b959b6e37eaa242003e6e8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,806
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,311
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,806 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xefde…783dbacked Yes | 13c | 1,421$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.04 | 458 | 43.7%200 W · 258 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76b0…338abacked No | 22c | 1,359$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,065.91 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe87e…4f70backed Yes | 19c | 712$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.28 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefdd…8370backed No | 39c | 709.82$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$430.42 | 190 | 56.3%107 W · 83 L | +16.9wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5c09…28d0backed Yes | 16c | 619$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.04 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b72…cd8ebacked Yes | 18c | 581$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.58 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae18…1132backed Yes | 17c | 471$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.07 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 20c | 296.02$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.14 | 428 | 18.7%80 W · 348 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked No | 37c | 293.27$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.79 | 113 | 50.4%57 W · 56 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad23…47c4backed No | 47c | 265.51$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.44 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -4.0wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -16%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf53c…00acbacked Yes | 23c | 217$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.91 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7321…1812backed No | 77c | 217$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.91 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +52.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61f0…529ebacked No | 7c | 213.63$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.68 | 43 | 18.6%8 W · 35 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc75…a085backed No | 43c | 205.7$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.6 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0fe…6e39backed Yes | 17c | 200$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3f…914abacked No | 32c | 190.25$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.74 | 135 | 44.4%60 W · 75 L | +8.1wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 41c | 188.09$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.44 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71fb…9b65backed Yes | 17c | 185$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.45 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x874b…2af6backed Yes | 7c | 171.43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc14d…cbdbbacked Yes | 77c | 161.44$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.31 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed No | 20c | 151$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.57 | 197 | 6.6%13 W · 184 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked Yes | 27c | 145$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.76 | 159 | 51.6%82 W · 77 L | +9.9wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 43c | 119.23$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.72 | 59 | 22%13 W · 46 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 45c | 118.52$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.39 | 589 | 27.2%160 W · 429 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd39…4252backed No | 22c | 116.2$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.2 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23f7…6e44backed Yes | 53c | 115.09$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…af4bbacked Yes | 78c | 112.95$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.92 | 135 | 43.7%59 W · 76 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7744…999ebacked Yes | 67c | 110$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.7 | 39 | 33.3%13 W · 26 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8be…4002backed No | 39c | 101.54$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +153.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed Yes | 57c | 100$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.67 | 165 | 41.2%68 W · 97 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77c3…00c8backed No | 57c | 100$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 57 | 42.1%24 W · 33 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb13b…0e2bbacked Yes | 56c | 100$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.5 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…5ceabacked No | 33c | 100$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67 | 65 | 40%26 W · 39 L | -10.4wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xaa99…dbbfbacked Yes | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 101 | 41.6%42 W · 59 L | +6.0wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +56.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa7fe…1f3ebacked No | 23c | 100$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77 | 216 | 31.9%69 W · 147 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x214c…6378backed Yes | 77c | 100$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6a3…54cdbacked No | 20c | 99.59$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.59 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 31c | 99.49$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.06 | 857 | 25.2%216 W · 641 L | -115.1wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xa97e…24ffbacked Yes | 54c | 96.3$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 82 | 24.4%20 W · 62 L | +8.3wins | +0.10per pick | 14cpaid | +64%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes | 52c | 91.68$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.67 | 266 | 19.2%51 W · 215 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b20…d8fcbacked No | 35c | 85.9$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.9 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9bb…5048backed No | 29c | 84.6$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.68 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +3.7wins | +0.29per pick | 40cpaid | +55.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x900d…d09ebacked Yes | 78c | 83.37$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.03 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc406…07d9backed No | 18c | 80.1$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.68 | 103 | 54.4%56 W · 47 L | +7.3wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x92d0…269ebacked Yes | 56c | 80$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.5 | 409 | 39.6%162 W · 247 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x875e…e6b5backed No | 37c | 71.95$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.34 | 33 | 21.2%7 W · 26 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe41b…e178backed Yes | 74c | 67.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.05 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.33per pick | 58cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x12d4…1a4ebacked No | 46c | 66.42$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 43c | 63.01$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.11 | 288 | 27.8%80 W · 208 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 34c | 62.71$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.24 | 776 | 36.9%286 W · 490 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92d3…17adbacked Yes | 53c | 57.64$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.55 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked No | 37c | 57.49$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.22 | 134 | 19.4%26 W · 108 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 27c | 56.74$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.2 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0974…003dbacked Yes | 57c | 56$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.92 | 133 | 42.1%56 W · 77 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc624…ee24backed No | 57c | 55$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.8 | 172 | 47.7%82 W · 90 L | -12.6wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd72…6cc4backed Yes | 70c | 54.78$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.07 | 57 | 49.1%28 W · 29 L | -6.6wins | -0.12per pick | 61cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x73b1…4a78backed Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +34%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97c2…55d6backed Yes | 63c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | -5.9wins | -0.14per pick | 59cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xeec4…30b5backed Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce03…5c00backed Yes | 80c | 50$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 71cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1547…d066backed Yes | 77c | 50$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 73 | 50.7%37 W · 36 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x991a…600ebacked Yes | 80c | 42.84$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.27 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 48c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 261 | 38.7%101 W · 160 L | -11.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb7…61fabacked No | 33c | 40$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +203%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e50…7a6bbacked Yes | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +3.3wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x32e1…f209backed Yes | 48c | 35$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2a9…afedbacked No | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +3.7wins | +0.41per pick | 37cpaid | +107.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f8…ac7bbacked No | 49c | 30.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.42 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f3…d7fdbacked Yes | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 35cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85cc…4895backed No | 57c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x504c…86c3backed Yes | 80c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4616…66e6backed No | 77c | 21.41$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.84 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | +8.0wins | +0.18per pick | 27cpaid | +109.3%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…5d02backed Yes | 79c | 18.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.19per pick | 53cpaid | +169.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.