Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on July 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x16341b2dea5d30d8c337ad7d3835b6e6bc4a61015deb272f1fa82c1ba7459460
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $41,644
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $48,318
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,644 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 151 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9ceb…2162backed No | 5c | 4,748$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.93 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 39c | 1,524$593 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$593.4 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf0…ff09backed Yes | 63c | 1,302$819 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$482.78 | 187 | 31%58 W · 129 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdadb…1870backed No | 29c | 1,138$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328.74 | 589 | 22.8%134 W · 455 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc4…7ae7backed Yes | 78c | 1,006$789 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.39 | 236 | 33.5%79 W · 157 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x78ed…ab3abacked Yes | 74c | 816.21$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.21 | 402 | 26.9%108 W · 294 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b9…1e0ebacked Yes | 63c | 757.99$479 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.16 | 96 | 47.9%46 W · 50 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 60c | 672$403 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$403.43 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked Yes | 46c | 582.38$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.04 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 39c | 570.73$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.16 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 29c | 557.69$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.04 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 47c | 480.95$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.63 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c7d…4deabacked Yes | 41c | 473.08$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.88 | 289 | 25.3%73 W · 216 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefc9…1f0abacked Yes | 43c | 422.49$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.82 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 28c | 362.55$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.47 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 78c | 343.99$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.31 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 26c | 343.03$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.09 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 57c | 330.29$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.01 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 55c | 325.31$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.9 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed Yes | 27c | 318.54$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.33 | 474 | 32.5%154 W · 320 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 58c | 313.59$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.91 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x235e…5673backed Yes | 35c | 299.99$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.99 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 20c | 298.69$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.4 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 53c | 279.17$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.62 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef11…a7a1backed Yes | 43c | 279.02$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.6 | 53 | 35.8%19 W · 34 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 28c | 275.54$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.37 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 37c | 273.26$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.97 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 8c | 255.8$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.22 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 16c | 242.5$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.09 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 62c | 226.22$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.04 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc1…b9f8backed Yes | 16c | 224.02$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.09 | 349 | 22.9%80 W · 269 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1171…b88ebacked Yes | 80c | 220$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.8 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 33c | 212.39$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.14 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 28c | 203$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.09 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed No | 60c | 200$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 496 | 46%228 W · 268 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf255…a6e8backed No | 64c | 189.99$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.69 | 82 | 69.5%57 W · 25 L | +8.7wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 29c | 178.73$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.28 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4989…983ebacked Yes | 39c | 178.36$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.68 | 336 | 26.8%90 W · 246 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x736e…e8c2backed Yes | 40c | 175$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4dfa…b490backed Yes | 68c | 165.88$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.08 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 62c | 163.87$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.65 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 36c | 158.23$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.81 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0358…95a4backed Yes | 45c | 150$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.67 | 74 | 41.9%31 W · 43 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 36c | 147.33$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.61 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 25c | 145.31$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.95 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0d5…d3a6backed Yes | 35c | 143.09$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.09 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -4.2wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3b2c…ecdcbacked Yes | 54c | 136.38$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.39 | 154 | 33.8%52 W · 102 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 18c | 130.24$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.15 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 46c | 130.01$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.25 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 72c | 129.2$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.7 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 44c | 128.15$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.14 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x142a…a44abacked No | 17c | 124.54$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.46 | 179 | 45.3%81 W · 98 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 55c | 116.67$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.06 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…3122backed Yes | 35c | 109$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.95 | 474 | 23.6%112 W · 362 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x843e…e477backed No | 48c | 108.83$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.24 | 47 | 61.7%29 W · 18 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5538…b9b6backed No | 42c | 107.7$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.61 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked No | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.33 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2662…40b7backed Yes | 64c | 100$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.11 | 13 | 84.6%11 W · 2 L | +2.6wins | +0.20per pick | 65cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 24c | 96.59$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.39 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x9fba…006dbacked No | 13c | 96.14$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -3.1wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4aca…6977backed Yes | 44c | 95.46$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.76 | 62 | 32.3%20 W · 42 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 32c | 93.86$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.85 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed No | 65c | 92.22$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 440 | 58.2%256 W · 184 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2052…120bbacked Yes | 36c | 83.33$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.33 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 47c | 83.15$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.82 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 32c | 81.44$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.67 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 65c | 81$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.65 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb65f…fff1backed Yes | 63c | 80.98$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.61 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x572b…77e1backed No | 60c | 80$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.26 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1b…2fffbacked Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 50c | 79.57$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.46 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0428…7d12backed Yes | 38c | 78.95$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.95 | 301 | 36.9%111 W · 190 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Yes | 63c | 77.29$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.53 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 37c | 73.82$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.46 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1db5…d13cbacked Yes | 41c | 72.38$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.98 | 52 | 38.5%20 W · 32 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 28c | 72.37$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.6 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c93…436abacked Yes | 42c | 71.43$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.43 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x896e…b02abacked Yes | 44c | 71.34$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.95 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 36c | 70.13$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.8 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea4…90edbacked Yes | 67c | 69.77$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.95 | 66 | 54.5%36 W · 30 L | +7.7wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4d39…e6f6backed No | 61c | 65.82$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 55 | 63.6%35 W · 20 L | +6.0wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0786…df1dbacked No | 58c | 65.2$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.82 | 230 | 60.9%140 W · 90 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 36c | 63.86$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.6 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed Yes | 19c | 63.48$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.55 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked Yes | 48c | 61$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.72 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e71…afe6backed Yes | 22c | 60.26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.91 | 272 | 26.5%72 W · 200 L | +14.6wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x073e…8416backed Yes | 36c | 58$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.12 | 88 | 48.9%43 W · 45 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe037…8a91backed Yes | 31c | 57.88$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.97 | 178 | 41.6%74 W · 104 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 63c | 56.86$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.62 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x762a…0322backed Yes | 33c | 55$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.96 | 58 | 24.1%14 W · 44 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x13eb…e57ebacked Yes | 29c | 51.66$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.66 | 116 | 24.1%28 W · 88 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 39c | 51.13$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.13 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f4…c6eebacked Yes | 45c | 50.1$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.36 | 108 | 47.2%51 W · 57 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacc6…a78bbacked Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -3.2wins | -0.15per pick | 39cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.25 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa943…f7d2backed No | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.5wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 62c | 49$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.38 | 527 | 58.8%310 W · 217 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2057…0629backed No | 65c | 49$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.85 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7512…df3abacked No | 62c | 46.95$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.11 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 68cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on July 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on July 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on July 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on July 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on July 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C or higher on July 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.