Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on July 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc2cd248d1dd0f55bcb98f3aa62c4dcd61c1fa2a9846d939f65c604497628e506
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $59,952
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $47,116
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $59,952 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 109 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9e4f…0f0dbacked Yes | 1c | 15,476$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c7d…4deabacked Yes | 6c | 3,560$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.27 | 289 | 25.3%73 W · 216 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ceb…2162backed Yes | 4c | 2,729$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.39 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc60b…d9f7backed Yes | 19c | 1,642$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.18 | 339 | 29.5%100 W · 239 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4989…983ebacked Yes | 23c | 1,450$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332.41 | 336 | 26.8%90 W · 246 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef11…a7a1backed Yes | 33c | 1,388$459 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$459.29 | 53 | 35.8%19 W · 34 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 2c | 1,235$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.57 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 20c | 1,008$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.98 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 19c | 979.23$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.21 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf0…ff09backed Yes | 29c | 826.29$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.2 | 187 | 31%58 W · 129 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b63…c6adbacked Yes | 4c | 756.36$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.83 | 55 | 29.1%16 W · 39 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5f5…5d54backed Yes | 38c | 742.48$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.98 | 283 | 24.7%70 W · 213 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 15c | 725.29$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.76 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked Yes | 12c | 708.39$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.13 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed Yes | 17c | 630.48$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.71 | 474 | 32.5%154 W · 320 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…3122backed Yes | 11c | 562.69$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.07 | 474 | 23.6%112 W · 362 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc4…7ae7backed Yes | 37c | 493.57$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.82 | 236 | 33.5%79 W · 157 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13d3…415ebacked Yes | 7c | 415.08$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.24 | 422 | 53.1%224 W · 198 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 61c | 321.14$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.65 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ccc…61dfbacked Yes | 20c | 299.99$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 142 | 33.1%47 W · 95 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7e…401ebacked Yes | 13c | 279.89$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 374 | 17.4%65 W · 309 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 24c | 262.17$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.72 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde67…c144backed Yes | 11c | 250.98$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.27 | 148 | 35.8%53 W · 95 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 7c | 242.11$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.79 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3be7…ad70backed Yes | 11c | 237.23$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.94 | 134 | 11.9%16 W · 118 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 10c | 230.82$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.19 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 32c | 229.47$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.43 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed Yes | 8c | 211.58$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.92 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x5e71…afe6backed Yes | 8c | 206.64$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.27 | 272 | 26.5%72 W · 200 L | +14.6wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 13c | 203.37$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.81 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 16c | 200$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.6 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 72c | 195.27$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 68c | 185.25$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.56 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 67c | 180.51$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.87 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed No | 75c | 170$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.04 | 559 | 54.7%306 W · 253 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ec…e53abacked No | 62c | 167.7$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.73 | 155 | 53.5%83 W · 72 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 78c | 167.17$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.14 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed Yes | 35c | 166$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.1 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 14c | 165.29$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10d5…33fdbacked Yes | 10c | 160.61$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.58 | 308 | 32.5%100 W · 208 L | +14.7wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 25c | 150.34$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.83 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5538…b9b6backed No | 66c | 140.42$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.18 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 79c | 140$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.4 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked Yes | 12c | 138.59$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.54 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 66c | 135.07$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.92 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 67c | 133.88$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.08 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 62c | 124.8$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.43 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed Yes | 25c | 115.28$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.35 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc15…cca6backed Yes | 40c | 114.12$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.65 | 264 | 41.3%109 W · 155 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf421…efcebacked Yes | 10c | 112.63$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.26 | 428 | 20.1%86 W · 342 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5024…3007backed No | 72c | 109.99$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.82 | 269 | 48.3%130 W · 139 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c7c…2d79backed Yes | 20c | 102.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 64 | 25%16 W · 48 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1171…b88ebacked Yes | 23c | 102.34$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.51 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 21c | 100.21$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.71 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x173a…eb85backed Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | -4.2wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab9…8ba6backed Yes | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 304 | 42.8%130 W · 174 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 18c | 98.96$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.11 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x736e…e8c2backed Yes | 41c | 97.45$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c8…dd8ebacked Yes | 16c | 96.17$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.52 | 163 | 48.5%79 W · 84 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 67c | 95$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.59 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed No | 70c | 92$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.93 | 421 | 60.6%255 W · 166 L | -25.0wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…8e3cbacked No | 80c | 91.99$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.74 | 78 | 62.8%49 W · 29 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 15c | 91.71$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.89 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 66c | 88.53$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.23 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 75c | 86.66$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.03 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 63c | 81$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.18 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x259f…1bf7backed Yes | 26c | 80$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.64 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x541e…b57abacked Yes | 26c | 77.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.91 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 69c | 72.78$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.79 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 32c | 72.19$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 64c | 64.49$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.19 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9052…653dbacked Yes | 36c | 61.2$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.89 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdadb…1870backed Yes | 31c | 57$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.66 | 589 | 22.8%134 W · 455 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 76c | 56.85$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.69 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 69c | 56.52$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.52 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed Yes | 28c | 55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f4…c6eebacked Yes | 33c | 54.97$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.14 | 108 | 47.2%51 W · 57 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 63c | 53.31$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.63 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe39c…4c0bbacked Yes | 26c | 52.4$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.82 | 89 | 42.7%38 W · 51 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed Yes | 35c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.29 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…abbdbacked Yes | 37c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.34 | 446 | 46.2%206 W · 240 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb814…dd31backed Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 111 | 54.1%60 W · 51 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e70…bb75backed Yes | 27c | 49.26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 74 | 44.6%33 W · 41 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +19%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05ba…ca40backed No | 73c | 45.26$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.22 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed No | 79c | 44$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.24 | 439 | 59.5%261 W · 178 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 68c | 41.99$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.56 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb67…322fbacked No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.1 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x562b…f9febacked Yes | 37c | 39.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 76 | 53.9%41 W · 35 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 78c | 38.46$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.46 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 35c | 34$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 63c | 33.52$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 61c | 32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.48 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcff7…57c7backed Yes | 42c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadda…684cbacked No | 78c | 25.34$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.59 | 85 | 80%68 W · 17 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 74cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd48d…48a1backed Yes | 41c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed No | 69c | 23.19$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.19 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 67c | 23.16$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.74 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 69c | 21.84$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.77 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 293 | 54.3%159 W · 134 L | -25.6wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on July 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on July 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on July 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on July 6?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on July 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C or higher on July 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.