Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on July 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x72283533b1b8120e92ccde50766b1253afb3b9551a399d61964b5e3db554c9f4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $38,977
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,818
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,977 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 108 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3be7…ad70backed Yes | 0c | 7,064$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.17 | 134 | 11.9%16 W · 118 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 2c | 2,829$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.25 | 3,411 | 31.1%1,062 W · 2,349 L | -37.3wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c7d…4deabacked Yes | 18c | 1,286$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.61 | 304 | 24.7%75 W · 229 L | +10.9wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 72c | 907.02$655 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.5 | 4,136 | 56.6%2,343 W · 1,793 L | +50.6wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 21c | 615.94$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.09 | 567 | 36.7%208 W · 359 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf0…ff09backed Yes | 35c | 610.95$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.24 | 187 | 31%58 W · 129 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 69c | 609$421 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.89 | 5,795 | 60%3,479 W · 2,316 L | -110.0wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c8…dd8ebacked No | 74c | 486.48$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.48 | 173 | 48%83 W · 90 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 41c | 446.72$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.41 | 1,613 | 23.9%385 W · 1,228 L | +13.1wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked Yes | 30c | 446.18$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.37 | 721 | 39%281 W · 440 L | +37.3wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 11c | 428.64$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.55 | 2,335 | 20.6%480 W · 1,855 L | -62.2wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef11…a7a1backed Yes | 32c | 408.99$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.61 | 53 | 35.8%19 W · 34 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4989…983ebacked Yes | 35c | 399.99$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.64 | 357 | 26.6%95 W · 262 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0786…df1dbacked No | 71c | 396.53$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.37 | 240 | 60.4%145 W · 95 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 19c | 384.45$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.83 | 10,848 | 37.5%4,070 W · 6,778 L | +432.8wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 60c | 343.99$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.64 | 1,433 | 52.1%747 W · 686 L | -21.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc1…b9f8backed Yes | 15c | 343.53$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.02 | 363 | 22.9%83 W · 280 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5024…3007backed Yes | 13c | 316.99$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.69 | 287 | 49.1%141 W · 146 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +64%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed No | 67c | 308$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.32 | 508 | 46.1%234 W · 274 L | +18.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 75c | 306.14$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.11 | 4,377 | 53.8%2,357 W · 2,020 L | -17.4wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf05…3d5bbacked Yes | 32c | 300$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 75 | 26.7%20 W · 55 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdadb…1870backed Yes | 12c | 298.98$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.95 | 608 | 22.9%139 W · 469 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 65c | 297.69$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.37 | 5,201 | 49.9%2,595 W · 2,606 L | -161.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 75c | 294.14$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.57 | 989 | 52.3%517 W · 472 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 12c | 269.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.6 | 1,440 | 27.8%400 W · 1,040 L | +75.4wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a0c…acd3backed Yes | 38c | 264.1$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 9c | 229.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.6 | 3,916 | 23.2%910 W · 3,006 L | +124.9wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked Yes | 24c | 205$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.01 | 632 | 43.2%273 W · 359 L | -13.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacc6…a78bbacked Yes | 26c | 200$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.95 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -3.2wins | -0.15per pick | 39cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 10c | 176.64$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.1 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 28c | 176.11$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.67 | 12,879 | 20.4%2,624 W · 10,255 L | -2,688.9wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 74c | 167.55$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.3 | 9,885 | 45.9%4,540 W · 5,345 L | -302.8wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2b…0dd7backed Yes | 16c | 154.09$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 66c | 154.03$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.39 | 6,857 | 53.1%3,642 W · 3,215 L | +417.4wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0358…95a4backed Yes | 29c | 149.93$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.91 | 74 | 41.9%31 W · 43 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 24c | 147.82$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.82 | 1,327 | 34.1%452 W · 875 L | +46.6wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ec…e53abacked Yes | 17c | 146.65$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 155 | 53.5%83 W · 72 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x517d…f41fbacked Yes | 19c | 134$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 133 | 48.9%65 W · 68 L | +6.7wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc4…7ae7backed Yes | 39c | 128$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.82 | 239 | 33.5%80 W · 159 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7e…401ebacked Yes | 14c | 127.56$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 374 | 17.4%65 W · 309 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 75c | 117.7$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.96 | 2,180 | 57%1,243 W · 937 L | +73.3wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56c2…a110backed Yes | 26c | 116.28$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.86 | 78 | 44.9%35 W · 43 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -14%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x078e…9d94backed Yes | 22c | 112.87$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 68c | 105.21$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.14 | 2,230 | 56.9%1,269 W · 961 L | +64.3wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 13c | 105$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.12 | 1,857 | 25.4%472 W · 1,385 L | +133.6wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +48.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc22b…7fdfbacked Yes | 14c | 104.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.08 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 33c | 103.08$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.58 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 39c | 100.22$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.61 | 7,231 | 9.3%675 W · 6,556 L | -1,115.6wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 966 | 20.7%200 W · 766 L | +59.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xea72…298abacked Yes | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 596 | 21.6%129 W · 467 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1,730 | 18%311 W · 1,419 L | +73.9wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…9319backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 520 | 22.5%117 W · 403 L | +27.6wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1ccc…61dfbacked Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 151 | 33.1%50 W · 101 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7523…121ebacked Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.87 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.27per pick | 47cpaid | -65.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4aca…6977backed Yes | 33c | 95$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.64 | 65 | 32.3%21 W · 44 L | -4.7wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed Yes | 15c | 93$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 981 | 57%559 W · 422 L | +3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 30c | 90$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 719 | 42%302 W · 417 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c93…436abacked Yes | 34c | 88.05$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 62c | 83.83$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.83 | 2,252 | 56.6%1,275 W · 977 L | +64.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec3…a081backed Yes | 28c | 83$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.46 | 182 | 24.2%44 W · 138 L | +7.1wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4453…fc75backed Yes | 14c | 81.79$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 73 | 27.4%20 W · 53 L | +4.5wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | +55.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc030…1398backed Yes | 13c | 80$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1db5…d13cbacked Yes | 15c | 72.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 52 | 38.5%20 W · 32 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked Yes | 38c | 70.6$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.12 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a59…8e5cbacked Yes | 15c | 70$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 306 | 33.3%102 W · 204 L | +17.5wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e71…afe6backed Yes | 19c | 69.95$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 273 | 26.4%72 W · 201 L | +14.3wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +20%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 66c | 67.34$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.84 | 2,211 | 55.9%1,236 W · 975 L | +47.0wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed Yes | 40c | 66.89$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.68 | 651 | 60.4%393 W · 258 L | +92.1wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed Yes | 20c | 63.63$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.73 | 2,415 | 57.9%1,399 W · 1,016 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked Yes | 18c | 59.44$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 61c | 59.08$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.21 | 2,260 | 58.3%1,318 W · 942 L | +85.2wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1f2…9bf5backed Yes | 35c | 58.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.46 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 74c | 56.85$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.9 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbeab…ee09backed Yes | 53c | 56.69$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe229…ea0fbacked Yes | 50c | 55.85$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.81 | 272 | 47.8%130 W · 142 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc209…7082backed Yes | 24c | 55.2$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.06 | 99 | 35.4%35 W · 64 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 68c | 55.1$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.83 | 2,267 | 57.4%1,301 W · 966 L | +72.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92aa…0341backed Yes | 38c | 53.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.23 | 79 | 26.6%21 W · 58 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -33%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 61c | 52.61$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.33 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa97f…c88fbacked Yes | 39c | 51.49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe037…8a91backed Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 178 | 41.6%74 W · 104 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 78c | 49.89$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.04 | 4,435 | 65.2%2,891 W · 1,544 L | +18.7wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 64c | 46.65$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.65 | 9,987 | 44.8%4,471 W · 5,516 L | +258.8wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfe7…88e7backed No | 55c | 45.86$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.64 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed Yes | 24c | 44.35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6a…f60cbacked Yes | 25c | 43$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 305 | 28.2%86 W · 219 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a99…7171backed No | 71c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.8 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f4…c6eebacked Yes | 37c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 111 | 47.7%53 W · 58 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x296e…0b9abacked Yes | 32c | 37.48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 57 | 22.8%13 W · 44 L | -7.1wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0e7f…2015backed No | 61c | 35$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.65 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 66c | 33.93$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.46 | 2,236 | 58.1%1,300 W · 936 L | +83.9wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6d3…118ebacked Yes | 36c | 33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 208 | 42.8%89 W · 119 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 64c | 31.42$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.18 | 2,273 | 59.3%1,347 W · 926 L | +118.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x97c5…018bbacked No | 77c | 31.32$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.32 | 46 | 65.2%30 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f51…8b09backed Yes | 38c | 30.69$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.79 | 146 | 38.4%56 W · 90 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 78c | 29.35$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 2,184 | 74.2%1,621 W · 563 L | +23.5wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 61c | 27.77$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.83 | 2,304 | 27%622 W · 1,682 L | -41.0wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x463a…af96backed Yes | 49c | 27.19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.34 | 120 | 52.5%63 W · 57 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 66c | 26.24$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.91 | 3,050 | 40.5%1,235 W · 1,815 L | -121.8wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on July 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on July 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on July 6?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on July 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on July 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C or higher on July 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.