Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on July 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x26a24daf2959018eb9911d01efb9893acb680bff3332613fd060cf2152e9e3b7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $51,438
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $49,481
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $51,438 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3be7…ad70backed Yes | 0c | 7,112$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.88 | 134 | 11.9%16 W · 118 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c7d…4deabacked Yes | 20c | 2,435$482 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$482.45 | 289 | 25.3%73 W · 216 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b2c…ecdcbacked Yes | 18c | 1,636$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.8 | 154 | 33.8%52 W · 102 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 6c | 1,428$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.06 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf255…a6e8backed No | 61c | 1,085$659 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$425.56 | 82 | 69.5%57 W · 25 L | +8.7wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdadb…1870backed Yes | 4c | 1,031$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.59 | 589 | 22.8%134 W · 455 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5f5…5d54backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 283 | 24.7%70 W · 213 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4989…983ebacked Yes | 7c | 877.9$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.76 | 336 | 26.8%90 W · 246 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked Yes | 3c | 728.41$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.47 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 2c | 700$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 12c | 630$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.92 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 7c | 591.42$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.24 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 2c | 504.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.43 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef11…a7a1backed Yes | 42c | 425.29$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.24 | 53 | 35.8%19 W · 34 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 66c | 343.99$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.29 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 13c | 309.41$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.99 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 10c | 308.22$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.31 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xcf05…3d5bbacked Yes | 8c | 299.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 75 | 26.7%20 W · 55 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 40c | 286.97$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.02 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabcd…6771backed Yes | 7c | 270.31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 74 | 25.7%19 W · 55 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5024…3007backed Yes | 4c | 268.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.76 | 269 | 48.3%130 W · 139 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e71…afe6backed Yes | 6c | 254.83$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 272 | 26.5%72 W · 200 L | +14.6wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 69c | 249.98$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.45 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf421…efcebacked Yes | 33c | 237.19$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.24 | 428 | 20.1%86 W · 342 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 8c | 224.7$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.82 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe037…8a91backed Yes | 8c | 216.06$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.35 | 178 | 41.6%74 W · 104 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea72…298abacked Yes | 7c | 208.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.74 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed Yes | 21c | 207.03$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.77 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 17c | 154.21$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.9 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0358…95a4backed Yes | 15c | 149.67$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.93 | 74 | 41.9%31 W · 43 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabcc…d148backed No | 69c | 145.89$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.89 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.16per pick | 43cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 66c | 137.49$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.85 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb9c7…e3fcbacked Yes | 45c | 133.71$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.86 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb04…48cfbacked Yes | 35c | 110.35$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.62 | 100 | 23%23 W · 77 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ccc…61dfbacked Yes | 16c | 99.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 142 | 33.1%47 W · 95 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0085…1d78backed No | 65c | 98.21$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.66 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x463a…af96backed Yes | 24c | 90.92$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.39 | 120 | 52.5%63 W · 57 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 71c | 81.25$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.17 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 69c | 75.84$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.78 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6298…0654backed Yes | 45c | 72.67$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed No | 59c | 70$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.7 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 66c | 67.58$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.75 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 68c | 66.31$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.36 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a1…1d37backed Yes | 44c | 52.12$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.93 | 320 | 41.9%134 W · 186 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1171…b88ebacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 77c | 47.57$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.85 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 78c | 43.95$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.71 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed No | 51c | 40.92$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.13 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e7f…2015backed No | 65c | 35$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0326…370fbacked No | 75c | 33.75$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 55cpaid | -66.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac71…f74cbacked No | 73c | 33.06$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.76 | 89 | 62.9%56 W · 33 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x741f…1243backed No | 62c | 32.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.32 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 79c | 30.35$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.43 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 69c | 28.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.87 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6170…da27backed No | 69c | 26.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.48 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 48cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xab14…e786backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.84 | 112 | 43.8%49 W · 63 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe229…ea0fbacked No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.9 | 272 | 47.8%130 W · 142 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on July 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on July 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on July 6?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on July 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on July 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C or higher on July 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.