Stocks · resolved market
Will Microsoft dip to $428 in January?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf4c126650f96a54b62a478df67ba414736fbce1537a101489ac27e021040e115
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,692
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,887
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,692 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes | 32c | 9,368$3,004 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,364.72 | 812 | 40.3%327 W · 485 L | +37.1wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb4…b997backed No | 52c | 4,730$2,441 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,440.87 | 990 | 38%376 W · 614 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d52…f88abacked No | 63c | 4,000$2,520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,520 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf350…f3ffbacked Yes | 32c | 1,730$551 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,179.21 | 351 | 51.6%181 W · 170 L | +19.3wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8ceb…baefbacked No | 51c | 841.09$426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$425.63 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd72…6cc4backed No | 65c | 836$543 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$543.4 | 68 | 64.7%44 W · 24 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes | 46c | 713$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$388.51 | 26 | 11.5%3 W · 23 L | -3.2wins | -0.12per pick | 24cpaid | -74.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8936…d010backed Yes | 26c | 645.28$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$474.94 | 602 | 29.9%180 W · 422 L | -32.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -35%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb12e…8c6cbacked No | 62c | 516$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.92 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…5ceabacked No | 65c | 501$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.65 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 18c | 347.52$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.56 | 221 | 29%64 W · 157 L | -14.1wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -22%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 11c | 328.93$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.83 | 416 | 8.7%36 W · 380 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed No | 63c | 307.57$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.06 | 565 | 48.7%275 W · 290 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 29c | 221.18$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.75 | 863 | 38.1%329 W · 534 L | -43.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e01…63bebacked No | 39c | 190$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.1 | 123 | 60.2%74 W · 49 L | +8.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x95bd…b9bebacked No | 45c | 156.8$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.15 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x476c…ce52backed Yes | 29c | 148$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.44 | 232 | 45.3%105 W · 127 L | +15.9wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4b…b93cbacked Yes | 26c | 134.84$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.42 | 108 | 27.8%30 W · 78 L | -7.6wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x084f…8b8ebacked No | 66c | 124$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.84 | 53 | 35.8%19 W · 34 L | -4.7wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x97c2…55d6backed No | 64c | 124$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.82 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -3.1wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 17c | 120$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.6 | 273 | 38.1%104 W · 169 L | -19.6wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc21e…0215backed No | 55c | 116.62$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.57 | 70 | 34.3%24 W · 46 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e4b…fce4backed Yes | 14c | 105$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.2 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.27per pick | 53cpaid | +117.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc75…a085backed No | 64c | 100$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 65c | 90$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.5 | 162 | 48.1%78 W · 84 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | 0%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed No | 62c | 58.03$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.98 | 438 | 38.8%170 W · 268 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 38c | 30.89$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.12 | 1,444 | 8.8%127 W · 1,317 L | -53.5wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a7…46c4backed No | 64c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.23per pick | 43cpaid | +74.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed Yes | 52c | 25.16$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.18 | 75 | 77.3%58 W · 17 L | +5.6wins | +0.08per pick | 70cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2bc1…03b4backed No | 77c | 14.34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bae…b9c9backed No | 77c | 13.42$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Microsoft dip to $428 in January?this page
- Will Microsoft dip to $405 in January?No won
- Will Microsoft dip to $450 in January?Yes won
- Will Microsoft dip to $465 in January?Yes won
- Will Microsoft dip to $480 in January?Yes won
- Will Microsoft reach $495 in January?No won
- Will Microsoft reach $510 in January?No won
- Will Microsoft reach $525 in January?No won
- Will Microsoft reach $548 in January?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.