Stocks · resolved market
Will Microsoft reach $495 in January?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfd35f1e833baf02cfb08598bb53c70aa20a26c3346e80e07d2f5269a73f487d7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,730
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,550
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,730 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9af2…b14ebacked Yes | 1c | 10,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 0c | 8,388$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.61 | 1,444 | 8.8%127 W · 1,317 L | -53.5wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked No | 54c | 3,753$2,044 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,709.24 | 812 | 40.3%327 W · 485 L | +37.1wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc21e…0215backed Yes | 32c | 2,529$812 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$812.44 | 70 | 34.3%24 W · 46 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfcf…6dc5backed Yes | 51c | 1,800$924 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$924.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe450…419abacked Yes | 2c | 752.94$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8936…d010backed Yes | 45c | 740.2$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336.43 | 602 | 29.9%180 W · 422 L | -32.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -35%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 6c | 711.97$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.22 | 416 | 8.7%36 W · 380 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed No | 50c | 689.89$348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$342.37 | 139 | 41.7%58 W · 81 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x169b…30c9backed No | 74c | 676.19$499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.33 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes | 2c | 588$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 26 | 11.5%3 W · 23 L | -3.2wins | -0.12per pick | 24cpaid | -74.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf350…f3ffbacked No | 55c | 562.51$309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.07 | 351 | 51.6%181 W · 170 L | +19.3wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae50…0119backed Yes | 48c | 518$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.19 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0b34…ffc3backed Yes | 3c | 377.4$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.19 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +4.1wins | +0.16per pick | 23cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb4…b997backed No | 73c | 317.18$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.48 | 990 | 38%376 W · 614 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 36c | 308$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.59 | 863 | 38.1%329 W · 534 L | -43.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8171…cde8backed No | 39c | 258.96$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.74 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf135…80e5backed Yes | 61c | 258.96$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.74 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38d8…ea7cbacked Yes | 19c | 227.94$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.47 | 1,779 | 49.1%873 W · 906 L | +143.0wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 42c | 200$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.8 | 262 | 37%97 W · 165 L | -11.9wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x476c…ce52backed Yes | 15c | 175$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 232 | 45.3%105 W · 127 L | +15.9wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed No | 44c | 159.27$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.84 | 565 | 48.7%275 W · 290 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20a3…29dbbacked No | 53c | 140$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.94 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x96e9…4b32backed Yes | 23c | 137.03$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.11 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -3.7wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -15%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfbbe…b616backed No | 22c | 136.36$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.36 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e5f…95e2backed Yes | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.4 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.18per pick | 44cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x084f…8b8ebacked No | 59c | 96.64$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.43 | 53 | 35.8%19 W · 34 L | -4.7wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4b…b93cbacked Yes | 26c | 72$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.82 | 108 | 27.8%30 W · 78 L | -7.6wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x41ae…f11abacked No | 46c | 71.74$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.74 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbed1…5132backed Yes | 52c | 69.84$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 21c | 68.16$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 164 | 18.9%31 W · 133 L | -16.7wins | -0.10per pick | 29cpaid | -45%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 40c | 60.44$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.34 | 273 | 38.1%104 W · 169 L | -19.6wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.76 | 162 | 48.1%78 W · 84 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | 0%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dc…223ebacked Yes | 27c | 37.14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 194 | 19.1%37 W · 157 L | -11.1wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -49%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 51c | 28$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.81 | 70 | 68.6%48 W · 22 L | +8.5wins | +0.12per pick | 56cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…20ebbacked No | 48c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 89 | 40.4%36 W · 53 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7a6…c212backed Yes | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e01…63bebacked No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 123 | 60.2%74 W · 49 L | +8.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Microsoft reach $495 in January?this page
- Will Microsoft dip to $405 in January?No won
- Will Microsoft dip to $428 in January?Yes won
- Will Microsoft dip to $450 in January?Yes won
- Will Microsoft dip to $465 in January?Yes won
- Will Microsoft dip to $480 in January?Yes won
- Will Microsoft reach $510 in January?No won
- Will Microsoft reach $525 in January?No won
- Will Microsoft reach $548 in January?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.